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As Economy Grows, North Korea's Grip on Society Weakens
- arcanus 10y agoHow is this different than China, where the party has retained an iron grip despite a multi-decade boom?
- khc 10y agoThe average person's life is many times better off
- tonyedgecombe 10y agoPerhaps they are able to retain an iron grip because of the boom, it will be interesting to see what happens when the inevitable bust arrives.
- astebbin 10y agoWe've heard this story before. In the West, the line (for years!) was that China's economic growth and foreign trade would _inevitably_ lead to democratization and widespread human rights improvements. That didn't happen -- the Communist party adapted quickly. They learned how to use economic growth as the base of their continued legitimacy, and as a fig leaf for continued political oppression (Internet censorship, jailing human rights activists, intimidating journalists, etc). With China as their mentor, I don't have high hopes for a different scenario unfolding in North Korea.
- timthelion 10y agoBut this isn't about freedom or democracy. This is about foreign investment. The wealthy New Yorkers who subscribe to the times care about foreign investment, not freedom or democracy.
- muninn_ 10y agoI'm neither wealthy nor a New Yorker and I subscribe... . I care about democracy and freedom too.
- ericd 10y agoThe NY Times is read across the country, because it's one of the few high quality newspapers left.
- tptacek 10y agoThe theory here being that the NYT is running a story about the DPRK because they hope to profit off investment in North Korea?
- sdiq 10y agoWhile I have never been to the US and the UK, the NYT and the Guardian are two places I occasionally stumble to, to find out what's going on in the world. Well, you don't have to be a New Yorker to read the NYT, and neither is its focus.
- petre 10y agoNo, you just have to be left leaning for those news outlets to grab your attention. I also read them occasionally but pretty much avoid the NYT now or just read through the lines.
- aaron-lebo 10y agoNot quite. http://www.pbs.org/video/2365155890/ http://www.pbs.org/video/2365155890/ "S32 Ep6: Secret State of North Korea" There are some really funny parts where citizens who are doing illegal things berate the officers who are trying to enforce the laws. It seems rather unlike a state with a firm grip on its populace. High rates of growth are impressive but also not hard given how much of a backwater NK was. We'll see if it continues. China succeeded because they liberalized and have a massive populace. NK simply doesn't have that and is isolated from the world community. How long can that growth continue and if it stops, will the locals accept it? Oh, and PBS has lots of good online video content. They're worth supporting.
- astebbin 10y agoThanks for the link, I'm a huge fan of Frontline. I'll give that episode a look!
- nostrademons 10y agoIt's worth looking at what led to democracy within what's now the United States of America. Economic growth, foreign trade, and the rise of a powerful merchant & professional class started in the mid-late 1600s. By 1688 it had led to political reforms in England itself, with the Glorious Revolution and recognition that the King was subject to parliament. It took a further 88 years before we got the American Revolution, and over 100 before the Constitution of the U.S. was ratified. Political changes take much longer than economic changes, which take much longer than technological changes. Typically, you need to have a whole generation grow up who believes that their prosperity is due to their own hard work and that of their parents, and that they owe nothing to the existing political regime. We're just barely, within the last 1-2 decades, seeing the economic changes that resulted from China's opening to the West and adoption of modern technology. Maybe by the time our grandchildren are adults, they'll see the political liberalization that goes along with that.
- philipov 10y agoWhat led to the American Revolution was a lack of much governance by Britain of the colonies for generations, which led to the establishment of self-governance. When eventually the King didn't have enough money and needed to levy more taxes on the colonies, the new ruling class revolted. The American Revolution was not a revolution in the sense that France had or that we typically talk about. It was a War of Secession. Comparing it to attempts to overthrow the ruling class in one's own country is not appropriate. It was war to shake off a foreign oppressor from the other side of the world.
- nostrademons 10y agoSure, but there's nothing stopping the same dynamic from playing out in China (or the current U.S, for that matter). What happens if the economic elites in Shanghai or Shenzhen decide that their interests have diverged from Beijing and that they'd be better off with self-governance? Their economic engines are fueled as much by Western multinational investment as by Beijing, anyway.
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- partycoder 10y agoThis. They have adapted very, very well. For example: - Mass surveillance and censorship. Over the Internet: State regulated search engines, encyclopedias, news, social networks, etc. Baidu, Baike, WeChat... all curated and monitored. - Your credit score can be affected if you don't show alignment with the party. - If you are considered problematic for the party, they can send you to jail, force you into labor, harvest your organs. You name it. There's no press coverage of it. - The People's Liberation Army does not belong to the People's Republic of China, it belongs to the Communist Party of China. Big part of their training is political indoctrination. - China pressures countries to align their vision with theirs. Stay silent about human right violations, Taiwan, Tibet, etc. Even through passive aggressive ways like withdrawing Pandas from your zoo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_diplomacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_diplomacy - All entertainment content is also curated/censored. Hollywood movies need to pass state review if they want to be in the Chinese market.
- carterehsmith 10y agoI find this funny. If we compare that to US or UK or whatever... looks quite similar :) > Mass surveliance and censorship? Yes, we got that. > Your credit score can be affected... Yes, your Zipcode tells everything > If you are considered problematic for the party... Yes, we got that. We get people 'suicided' and then we close the files so that they can't be opened for 50 years or whatever. Got that. > China pressures countries to align their vision with theirs. US, UK, France, Italy etc etc do that too > Contents censored Yup. See 'national board of review'
- ende 10y ago> the line (for years!) was that China's economic growth and foreign trade would _inevitably_ lead to democratization and widespread human rights improvements. That didn't happen I don't think you understand what the word inevitably means.
- quirkafleeg 10y agoI don't think you understand what you're quoting. https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economic+"inevitably+lead+to"+democratisation https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economic+"inevitably+l...
- bpodgursky 10y agoI think it's a stretch to assume that this translates directly. The Chinese government competently used a combination of crony capitalism and state-run-enterprises to sustain steady economic growth. It's well understood that government policies encouraged and supported the free-ish market. In North Korea, the markets which have sprung up have happened despite the government. If it is increasingly seen as incompetent, that's clear distinction with the situation in China, which was run by fairly ruthless technocrats (since the 90s). It's also quite a stretch to think that the farmer's markets in North Korea could possibly transition into the huge industrial giants which have powered China's economy. I think most of the west would be more-or-less OK with a Chinese-style regime in North Korea -- a competent, responsible, undemocratic politburo more interested in economic growth than pointless military threats (China does not weekly threaten to nuke San Francisco, with 80s-era animated illustrations).
- dominotw 10y agoChinese are worried that messing with what works could stop the economic growth that they desire more than anything else. If someone can guarantee 100% that ending "Internet censorship, jailing human rights activists, intimidating journalists, etc" wouldn't hurt the economic progress than perhaps they would be on board.
- yongjik 10y agoBut it did lead to human rights improvements. As far as I know, many (most?) Chinese people can freely move around and visit other countries. No Chinese scholar was dragged onto streets by government-sponsored teenage thugs in decades. Some of them even criticize the government occasionally, although if you do that too loudly you may still go to prison. So, there was a huge improvement since the days of Cultural Revolution. Just not enough. And if North Korea achieves the same level of human rights that is available in China now, it will be considered a vast success by everybody who cares. Strangely, some people seem to maintain that freedom is either absolute everything or nothing. But you don't have to equate everything as "still non-free" in order to fight for more freedom and justice.
- jaredklewis 10y agoWell put. "All or nothing" is poison, and by that standard, Western democracies also fall in the category of "nothing." For the massive human rights gains in China to be so thoughtlessly dismissed is frustrating.
- Aloha 10y agoAgreed. If anyone is foolish enough to think china will adopt democracy in the guise of America or Europe is foolish, their culture is so different as so to not even be understandable by most westerners. I'd agree that china is partially democratic and free - insomuch as there are limited methods of redress, and some criticism of the government is allowed, provided you don't attack the foundations of the government.. and every year little by little the Chinese government allows a little more criticisms and adds more methods of redress. They'll make it in my lifetime, but again, it won't look like us in the west.
- rat87 10y ago> If anyone is foolish enough to think china will adopt democracy in the guise of America or Europe is foolish, their culture is so different as so to not even be understandable by most westerners. I think that's wrong and patronizing, everyone is capable of democracy.
- stale2002 10y agoChina is significantly better than it used to be. Sure, it has internet censorship. But it is no longer jailing people, in mass, for the "crime" of being a university professor. That's a win in my book.
- tuna-piano 10y agoThere is a documented story about a Doctor who defected from North Korea. After crossing the border from North Korea into China, she noticed bowls of rice and food on the ground. At first, she didn't understand why the food was on the ground. Then she realized, "dogs in China ate better than doctors in North Korea."[1] There are many shades of grey on the scale of terrible place to live to amazing place to live. This is not black and white. Today's China (with its many faults) is a much better place to live than North Korea, or the China from 1970. In fact, China's per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power) has risen 7x in the past 25 years![2] I think people in China are happy to have this huge level of economic improvement for now, and will deal with the civil freedoms later. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_to_Envy#Dogs_and_doctors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_to_Envy#Dogs_and_docto... [2]http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita-ppp
- astebbin 10y ago>I think people in China are happy to have this huge level of economic improvement for now, and will deal with the civil freedoms later. I think you're right about the current attitude of people in China. Unfortunately, as I have experienced in software development, often "later" (e.g. the Jira label "Future") means "never."
- nickik 10y agoI would not be to quick to judge. Usually countries either get stuck in the middle income or they change the government structure. China has a long way to go yet to really be a first world country. Even now I think it's clear that the party is nowhere near as powerful as they were and there are things they don't do anymore. They know that protest could break out if they do the wrong things, they are careful. I don't think it is inevitable but I highly doubt that a country could get to the same GDP per capita as the western democracies without some government reforms.
- Gatsky 10y agoThis is true, but at the same time, I think economic growth is the only modality to achieve significant improvements for a populace without a LOT of people dying. If say capitalist rebels tried to take over in China, we would have seen the worst civil war ever.
- coolsdude2282 10y agoHonestly if they could transition to even a China-like level of openness that would be light years of improvement in my opinion. Incremental change that doesn't involve some sort of bloody revolution with lots of loss of life seems like a great option. If they were able to build themselves up to be a functioning country it would probably help in a move toward disarmament, or less war-hawking in the highest positions of government.
- sunbuntu 10y agoPeople not starving to death, a very good news story.
- erikb 10y agoEver since I've read the Foundation science fiction novels I wonder if there are really political powers so cunning, that they increase the economy of an enemy just to keep the government there struggling with their citizen. E.g. does the UK support Hongkong to make trouble for the Mainland? Does Russia sell stuff unhealthily cheap to the EU to keep everybody there fed and arrogant? Why does the US not throw loads of satelite internet phones over North Korea so that its citizen get access to western propaganda?
- cletus 10y agoThere are lots of mistaken beliefs around democracy. US foreign policy seems to at least pay lip service to the idea that democracy is inherently good. But efforts to impose democracy on nations that have only ever been autocratic seems to have a poor history. Likewise others have mentioned that China is "proof" that economic growth doesn't lead to democracy. China I think is a really interesting case. When I compare China and India, which are both developing nations of massive size (over a billion people each), it seems to be as an outsider looking in that the Chinese are way better off than the Indians despite China being ostensibly communist and India ostensibly democratic. This is likely to be a controversial statement. This doesn't excuse the bad on either side. China has the annexation of China, lack of a free press, labour camps, the almost industrial scale genocide of baby girls and poor labour conditions to name a few. India has a huge problem with poverty, a population growth rate that's really concerning, a real problem with rape (at least in parts) and a ridiculous territorial ego fest with Pakistan over Kashmir. But what the Chinese have, which I think ultimately benefits citizens, is political stability. While China is still called a Communist country it's unlike any other Communist country I've ever seen in that there are markets, a form of capitalism and the accumulation of private wealth. What I also see is the topping of totalitarian regimes in places like Iraq and Libya. This is part of the reason fro the current refugee crisis in Europe. And as awful as I'm sure the al-Asaad regime is in Syria, has anyone really benefitted from the prolonged civil war in Syria? So anyway, North Korea. It's certainly another interesting case and it has managed to survive when other such regimes have fallen by the wayside. This is in large part to China. Powerful countries like buffers between other powerful countries. Russia certainly wanted and wants one with the EU and NATO. North Korea also survives by a strict and brutal control on information so I'm happy to see efforts people make to smuggle even things like TV shows into North Korea. These I do think ultimately help to weaken the regime but the process is not quick. I don't think that North Korea--or anywhere else--is ultimately bound for democracy however.
- zabana 10y agoAre we so arrogant that we should feel legitimate to tell people what they should aspire to and what model they should adopt ? People tend to confuse economic growth, prosperity, well being and democracy as if none of that existed before, as if before our holy democracy people didn't prosper. Economic growth and technological progress are a function of political stability, which can come in many forms including (but not exclusive to) democracy. Western Countries have the largest number of depressed people and the highest suicide rates in the world. I'm sure it sucks to be living in NK right now, but if the regime opens up and retains their grip on the nation, well ... who cares if people are thriving. </rant>
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 10y agoWhat is interesting is that by population, 90% of the functioning democracies in the world were at one time ruled by the United Kingdom or one of its former colonies. The list includes India, Canada, USA, Australia, Ireland, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Japan, and Germany. The fact that so many democracies derive from the UK means that democracy is not a default state and to be successful needs centuries of tradition and institutions to make it work well.
- eiji 10y agoIn what way does the German democracy derive from the UK? You are oversimplifying. I get what you are trying to say, but it's not just tradition and institutions. There is a lot more to it.
- slededit 10y agoWestern Germany was ruled for a short period by both the UK and the United States after World War II, where they spent a great deal of effort to setup a functional and self sufficient government. Prior to that they did have a short lived democratic government but Hitler saw to its demise rather quickly.
- bamboozled 10y agoThat might be a fact but it doesn't really support the OPs original idea right? "centuries of tradition and institutions to make it work well."
- MatthiasP 10y agoEven before the Weimar Republic Germany already had many democratic elements. There were political parties, a constitution, checks and balances for governing officers and a somewhat free press. The Kaiser could not rule despotically and had to take public opinion into account.
- petre 10y ago
- br_smartass 10y agodid I hear regime change?
- meric 10y agoBefore Kim Jong Un took power, people were protesting the government. These days they fear him, while proclaiming "‘What has he done for us?". According to Tao Te Ching, verse 17, Kim Jong Un is more capable than his father: With the greatest leader above them, people barely know one exists. Next comes one whom they love and praise. Next comes one whom they fear. <-- Kim Jong Un Next comes one whom they despise and defy. <-- His father When a leader trusts no one, no one trusts him. The great leader speaks little. He never speaks carelessly. He works without self-interest and leaves no trace. When all is finished, the people say “We did it ourselves.” <-- North Korean people
- MatthiasP 10y agoThis is my favorite argument against economic sanctions. Ruining the economy of a country only pushes society into dependence of the political clique that controls the state. On the other hand, economic growth and an abundance of goods breeds individualism and that is one of the incubators of democracy.
- woodandsteel 10y agoI see your point, but in the case of North Korea exactly the opposite is happening. For decades the political elite had an iron grip on the country. But then sanctions help push the country into more of a free enterprise system, and that is weakening the government's power.
- jaredklewis 10y agoIt seems speculative. How do you know that, should there have been no sanctions, these free enterprise systems would not have been introduced anyway? Or even know that would not have been developed more than they are now? With so many huge changes both inside and outside DPRK during the past decades, to credit the gradual introduction free market systems to sanctions seems tendentious.
- petre 10y agoSanctions are always better than war. People adapt. Or negotiate their way out. Just look at Iran. Free market in NK? Maybe free as in the state is too busy caring right now and market as in flea market.
- crdoconnor 10y agoKJI was pushed (by the famine). KJU actually likes the idea of growing a parallel market based economy. He could just as easily have decided to clamp down on it.
- known 10y agoNK should merge with China;
- olivermarks 10y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bank_of_the_Democratic_People%27s_Republic_of_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bank_of_the_Democratic... As I understand it, the only countries left on the planet in control of their own money supply are North Korea, Cuba & Iran.