7 ms·

I knew I should have put a bet on this, we were never going to leave Europe. Which ever parties manifesto says stay in Europe will win - end of story.

davzie 10y ago
You gotta get out of that echo chamber mate.
- noja 10y ago
  Maybe he does, but at 48% of those who voted it's not much of an echo chamber.
  - davzie 10y ago
    Yes but this is a general election where we're voting for a party, not pro or anti-Brexit. I despise the conservatives, but I support Brexit. So I'm certainly not voting for the lib dems. I actually like every single Liberal Democrat policy besides their hard-line on doing everything they can to ignore the result of the referendum. It's a shame because I don't feel like labour are in a position to really take the country forward right now.
    - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
      General elections are won in the centre ground, you might be in for some disappointment.
Pamar 10y ago
If this had been the plan, she should have indicted the elections before triggering Article 50 (http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2017-03-29/ http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2017-03-29/).
davidgerard 10y ago
Hope hasn't had a very good track record in the last year or so.
UK-AL 10y ago
She would have never of called if she thought she wasn't going to win. This is basically to get a higher majority in the commons, so things can go through unimpeded.
- Silhouette 10y ago
  To be fair, she wouldn't be the first PM in recent history to call a vote they were sure they'd win and live to regret it. The real danger for her is presumably that MPs don't give her the mandate to hold the election at all, which would potentially mean we get yet another new and unelected PM.
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago
  She wasn't pro-brexit, it's difficult to say what her motives are. It does seem the enormity of brexit is becoming more apparent as time goes on, perhaps she would like a tight result to keep a lid on the right of her party.
k-mcgrady 10y ago
As much as I want to stay in Europe that ain't happening. She didn't need to call this. She did it because the polls say she'll win and that's another 5 years we're stuck with a tory government. Labour is the biggest challenger and they're pro-brexit. With the SNP's popularity Labour can't win enough seats to challenge anyway and given their differing stances on brexit I don't see how a Labour/Lib Dems/SNP coalition would work.
- sjm 10y ago
  Are Labour really "pro-Brexit"? I understand they're pretty divided right now, but I thought it was more that they have to publicly show they're prepared to live with it moving forward.
  - manarth 10y ago
    Corbyn seems pro-Brexit, and only a fifth of the party defied the whip in the Brexit vote. What would happen without Corbyn is anyone's guess though.
talktime 10y ago
Well the LibDems are going to say that but they are not going to win. The other two parties aren't - Labour is going split in half. The Tories might see defections, but will stay together and press ahead with Brexit in the hope of a massive majority.
- headmelted 10y ago
  Agreed, I think Tim Farron was right on point strategy-wise to come out and immediately, unequivocally say that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to stay in. It's just not going to sway nearly enough people to win a majority, and the Tories know that.
  - evgen 10y ago
    True, but if the LibDems can pull enough Blairites away from Corbyn and urban Tories away from May it will give the LibDems a core that they can move forward with. (I don't think they have a hope in hell of actually even getting enough MPs to play kingmakers, but they may be aiming to simply supplant Labour as the opposition party...)
    - Silhouette 10y ago
      The trouble is, the Lib Dems under Farron have essentially become a single-issue party. That decision potentially alienates about 1/3 of their previous voter base who voted to Leave, as well as those who did want to Remain but either don't believe in overriding a popular referendum on democratic principles or don't feel strongly enough on the issue to disrupt things further. Given that we're talking about the Lib Dems here, all of those could be significant groups. It's quite a gamble to bet your whole political strategy on attracting enough voters from other parties because they feel so strongly on Europe, and according to recent polling, it looks like it's a gamble that is going to fail unspectacularly.
      - irb 10y ago
        I don't think it alienates any of their base. The Lib Dems have always been hugely pro-Europe, I doubt that anyone who voted Leave would have been a supporter in the first place.
IanCal 10y ago
Constituencies overwhelmingly voted to leave though.
- Aaargh20318 10y ago
  Sure, but many who voted never expected them to actually win and saw it as a protest vote. A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. Now brexit has been initiated and it's becoming clear what the consequences are many more people are getting cold feet.
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases that it probably wouldn't have affected the referendum result itself, and surely far too small to have much effect on a general election result.
    - Aaargh20318 10y ago
      > This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-voters-remain-worst-event-2016-eu-referendum-european-union-a7500571.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-... "Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year," The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.
      - foldr 10y ago
        That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/saga/82093/more-over-50s-would-vote-brexit-now-june-poll https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...
SmellyGeekBoy 10y ago
Is this supposed to be some kind of satire?
bananaoomarang 10y ago
I'm afraid that's wishful thinking - there is no opposition to the Conservatives right now other than the SNP. Short of a miracle, May's majority will increase.
bencollier49 10y ago
"Username checks out" - London's a bubble.

davzie 10y ago

You gotta get out of that echo chamber mate.

noja 10y ago
Maybe he does, but at 48% of those who voted it's not much of an echo chamber.
- davzie 10y ago
  Yes but this is a general election where we're voting for a party, not pro or anti-Brexit. I despise the conservatives, but I support Brexit. So I'm certainly not voting for the lib dems. I actually like every single Liberal Democrat policy besides their hard-line on doing everything they can to ignore the result of the referendum. It's a shame because I don't feel like labour are in a position to really take the country forward right now.
  - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
    General elections are won in the centre ground, you might be in for some disappointment.

Pamar 10y ago

If this had been the plan, she should have indicted the elections before triggering Article 50 (http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2017-03-29/ http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2017-03-29/).

davidgerard 10y ago

Hope hasn't had a very good track record in the last year or so.

UK-AL 10y ago

She would have never of called if she thought she wasn't going to win. This is basically to get a higher majority in the commons, so things can go through unimpeded.

Silhouette 10y ago
To be fair, she wouldn't be the first PM in recent history to call a vote they were sure they'd win and live to regret it. The real danger for her is presumably that MPs don't give her the mandate to hold the election at all, which would potentially mean we get yet another new and unelected PM.
tonyedgecombe 10y ago
She wasn't pro-brexit, it's difficult to say what her motives are. It does seem the enormity of brexit is becoming more apparent as time goes on, perhaps she would like a tight result to keep a lid on the right of her party.

k-mcgrady 10y ago

As much as I want to stay in Europe that ain't happening. She didn't need to call this. She did it because the polls say she'll win and that's another 5 years we're stuck with a tory government. Labour is the biggest challenger and they're pro-brexit. With the SNP's popularity Labour can't win enough seats to challenge anyway and given their differing stances on brexit I don't see how a Labour/Lib Dems/SNP coalition would work.

sjm 10y ago
Are Labour really "pro-Brexit"? I understand they're pretty divided right now, but I thought it was more that they have to publicly show they're prepared to live with it moving forward.
- manarth 10y ago
  Corbyn seems pro-Brexit, and only a fifth of the party defied the whip in the Brexit vote. What would happen without Corbyn is anyone's guess though.

talktime 10y ago

Well the LibDems are going to say that but they are not going to win. The other two parties aren't - Labour is going split in half. The Tories might see defections, but will stay together and press ahead with Brexit in the hope of a massive majority.

headmelted 10y ago
Agreed, I think Tim Farron was right on point strategy-wise to come out and immediately, unequivocally say that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to stay in. It's just not going to sway nearly enough people to win a majority, and the Tories know that.
- evgen 10y ago
  True, but if the LibDems can pull enough Blairites away from Corbyn and urban Tories away from May it will give the LibDems a core that they can move forward with. (I don't think they have a hope in hell of actually even getting enough MPs to play kingmakers, but they may be aiming to simply supplant Labour as the opposition party...)
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    The trouble is, the Lib Dems under Farron have essentially become a single-issue party. That decision potentially alienates about 1/3 of their previous voter base who voted to Leave, as well as those who did want to Remain but either don't believe in overriding a popular referendum on democratic principles or don't feel strongly enough on the issue to disrupt things further. Given that we're talking about the Lib Dems here, all of those could be significant groups. It's quite a gamble to bet your whole political strategy on attracting enough voters from other parties because they feel so strongly on Europe, and according to recent polling, it looks like it's a gamble that is going to fail unspectacularly.
    - irb 10y ago
      I don't think it alienates any of their base. The Lib Dems have always been hugely pro-Europe, I doubt that anyone who voted Leave would have been a supporter in the first place.

IanCal 10y ago

Constituencies overwhelmingly voted to leave though.

Aaargh20318 10y ago
Sure, but many who voted never expected them to actually win and saw it as a protest vote. A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. Now brexit has been initiated and it's becoming clear what the consequences are many more people are getting cold feet.
- Silhouette 10y ago
  A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases that it probably wouldn't have affected the referendum result itself, and surely far too small to have much effect on a general election result.
  - Aaargh20318 10y ago
    > This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-voters-remain-worst-event-2016-eu-referendum-european-union-a7500571.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-... "Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year," The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.
    - foldr 10y ago
      That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/saga/82093/more-over-50s-would-vote-brexit-now-june-poll https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...

SmellyGeekBoy 10y ago

Is this supposed to be some kind of satire?

bananaoomarang 10y ago

I'm afraid that's wishful thinking - there is no opposition to the Conservatives right now other than the SNP. Short of a miracle, May's majority will increase.

bencollier49 10y ago

"Username checks out" - London's a bubble.