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I was thinking, "this is ridiculous; why can't they just import more potatoes?" and then I found this: "She also cited regulatory hurdles, which limit the amou

I was thinking, "this is ridiculous; why can't they just import more potatoes?" and then I found this: "She also cited regulatory hurdles, which limit the amount of imported potatoes that can be used in products, as partly responsible for the shortage." No, it is primarily responsible for the shortage.

justinjlynn 10y ago
Regulatory hurdles in the import/export market are like a person trapped in a sphere at sea. Even when you run out of drinking water inside the sphere, you still don't want the sphere to let in saltwater. It's all water but you shouldn't drink it. Your position makes sense where the sphere is floating in clean fresh drinking water. However, like an ocean is much larger than a lake, there is much more toxic crap on the market for import than there is good. Strong standards with proactive, responsive agencies make for the best public protections in imperfect markets. Whether or not this is caused by a failure there is a good question.
- chicxulub 10y ago
  You'd think that in a world of dynamic scaling system resources, we'd have figured out how to scale other supply chains. Tariffs and such are a virtual constraint, designed to limit intake. Too bad that governance and enforcement is far too clunky to temporarily relax artificial limits on external foreign products, in a way that permits domestic producers to expand back into the gap that opened up during the shortage. Lots of systems exist that exhibit this sort of behavior, but international trade falls short in modeling temporary conditions to maintain alignment with changing trends and incidents. It's just hard failures and lock-downs all around.
- Pitarou 10y ago
  Why do you assume that the primary purpose of the regulatory regime is to maintain high standards?
  - justinjlynn 10y ago
    If it is not and its primary purpose is economic protectionism, in the face of otherwise fair market competition, then I am against intervention. I did not mean to imply that was the purpose for which all those agencies are used, nor did I intend to present a black/white choice in the perception of said matter. In this case, it does appear to be a case of at least limited protectionism; however, my information and expertise here is limited.
emodendroket 10y ago
If, as your post seems to be recommending, such regulations were abolished, Japanese farmers would pretty much cease to exist because of their inability to compete with cheaper imports. Maybe you consider that an unacceptable tradeoff for some potato chip shortages but it's not clear that the Japanese share your sense of priorities.
- kijin 10y ago
  The regulations can be changed without putting domestic farmers out of business. For example, they could add tariffs to imported potatoes to make them cost as much as (or even more than) domestic potatoes, and use the revenue to help Hokkaido farmers rebuild their farms. No need for a hard limit on the imported amount.
  - emodendroket 10y ago
    True enough, although I'd think that by the time such a huge overhaul were accomplished the shortage would be over.
    - kijin 10y ago
      If there is political will, things like that can be done remarkably quickly. South Korea had a massive shortage of chicken eggs last winter due to an avian influenza epidemic. It took only a few weeks for the government to start importing fresh eggs from abroad, something that had never been done before. It wasn't enough to get prices down to normal levels, but at least the government acted quick -- especially considering that the nation was in the middle of a Presidential scandal. Unlike South Korea, Japan is essentially a single-party dictatorship. They can pass whatever laws they deem necessary if they really want to. I'm assuming that they don't want to, probably because there's someone who profits from high potato prices.
      - emodendroket 10y ago
        It wasn't that long ago that the DPJ held power. Anyway, that's a fair point, but I think a shortage of eggs where people eat a lot of eggs and a shortage of potato chips are kind of different situations that don't necessarily need the same kind of response.
glandium 10y ago
No, the primary cause of the shortage is that 70+% of the potato supply comes from one specific region of Japan, and that that region has had a very bad Typhoon which caused bad crops. IOW, the primary cause of the shortage was a (almost) SPOF in the supply chain.
- YokoZar 10y ago
  And why is there a single point of failure? Because there is a hard cap on imports. No cap -> no shortage, just as much as no typhoon -> no shortage.
  - glandium 10y ago
    > And why is there a single point of failure? Because there is a hard cap on imports. You don't need to import to avoid the single point of failure. You just need to not have _one_ region where most of your production is.
kalleboo 10y ago
I think it was last year that McDonald's Japan had to stop selling fries in portions bigger than small since their potatoes were imported from the US, and that supply was cut off due to union strike action in a US port. Any kind of single-sourcing is a bad idea.
- princeb 10y ago
  it was in 2015. Singapore McDonald's ran out of curry dip due to the port congestion. Which was really funny to me because the dip was manufactured in the states even if it's not consumed there.
Markoff 10y ago
then why not just import chips? even the regular price 2$ pretty package seen extremely high, i am buying 150g back of supermarket brand chips for 0.5€ here, so even with transportation doubling the price it would still cost half of normal Japanese price

justinjlynn 10y ago

Regulatory hurdles in the import/export market are like a person trapped in a sphere at sea. Even when you run out of drinking water inside the sphere, you still don't want the sphere to let in saltwater. It's all water but you shouldn't drink it. Your position makes sense where the sphere is floating in clean fresh drinking water. However, like an ocean is much larger than a lake, there is much more toxic crap on the market for import than there is good. Strong standards with proactive, responsive agencies make for the best public protections in imperfect markets. Whether or not this is caused by a failure there is a good question.

chicxulub 10y ago
You'd think that in a world of dynamic scaling system resources, we'd have figured out how to scale other supply chains. Tariffs and such are a virtual constraint, designed to limit intake. Too bad that governance and enforcement is far too clunky to temporarily relax artificial limits on external foreign products, in a way that permits domestic producers to expand back into the gap that opened up during the shortage. Lots of systems exist that exhibit this sort of behavior, but international trade falls short in modeling temporary conditions to maintain alignment with changing trends and incidents. It's just hard failures and lock-downs all around.
Pitarou 10y ago
Why do you assume that the primary purpose of the regulatory regime is to maintain high standards?
- justinjlynn 10y ago
  If it is not and its primary purpose is economic protectionism, in the face of otherwise fair market competition, then I am against intervention. I did not mean to imply that was the purpose for which all those agencies are used, nor did I intend to present a black/white choice in the perception of said matter. In this case, it does appear to be a case of at least limited protectionism; however, my information and expertise here is limited.

emodendroket 10y ago

If, as your post seems to be recommending, such regulations were abolished, Japanese farmers would pretty much cease to exist because of their inability to compete with cheaper imports. Maybe you consider that an unacceptable tradeoff for some potato chip shortages but it's not clear that the Japanese share your sense of priorities.

kijin 10y ago
The regulations can be changed without putting domestic farmers out of business. For example, they could add tariffs to imported potatoes to make them cost as much as (or even more than) domestic potatoes, and use the revenue to help Hokkaido farmers rebuild their farms. No need for a hard limit on the imported amount.
- emodendroket 10y ago
  True enough, although I'd think that by the time such a huge overhaul were accomplished the shortage would be over.
  - kijin 10y ago
    If there is political will, things like that can be done remarkably quickly. South Korea had a massive shortage of chicken eggs last winter due to an avian influenza epidemic. It took only a few weeks for the government to start importing fresh eggs from abroad, something that had never been done before. It wasn't enough to get prices down to normal levels, but at least the government acted quick -- especially considering that the nation was in the middle of a Presidential scandal. Unlike South Korea, Japan is essentially a single-party dictatorship. They can pass whatever laws they deem necessary if they really want to. I'm assuming that they don't want to, probably because there's someone who profits from high potato prices.
    - emodendroket 10y ago
      It wasn't that long ago that the DPJ held power. Anyway, that's a fair point, but I think a shortage of eggs where people eat a lot of eggs and a shortage of potato chips are kind of different situations that don't necessarily need the same kind of response.

glandium 10y ago

No, the primary cause of the shortage is that 70+% of the potato supply comes from one specific region of Japan, and that that region has had a very bad Typhoon which caused bad crops. IOW, the primary cause of the shortage was a (almost) SPOF in the supply chain.

YokoZar 10y ago
And why is there a single point of failure? Because there is a hard cap on imports. No cap -> no shortage, just as much as no typhoon -> no shortage.
- glandium 10y ago
  > And why is there a single point of failure? Because there is a hard cap on imports. You don't need to import to avoid the single point of failure. You just need to not have _one_ region where most of your production is.

kalleboo 10y ago

I think it was last year that McDonald's Japan had to stop selling fries in portions bigger than small since their potatoes were imported from the US, and that supply was cut off due to union strike action in a US port. Any kind of single-sourcing is a bad idea.

princeb 10y ago
it was in 2015. Singapore McDonald's ran out of curry dip due to the port congestion. Which was really funny to me because the dip was manufactured in the states even if it's not consumed there.

Markoff 10y ago

then why not just import chips? even the regular price 2$ pretty package seen extremely high, i am buying 150g back of supermarket brand chips for 0.5€ here, so even with transportation doubling the price it would still cost half of normal Japanese price