6 ms·

North Korea attempts but fails to launch missile: South Korea

38 points by mabynogy 10y ago

astrodust 10y ago
Yay we get to live another day!
- marak830 10y ago
  As someone living in Japan with friends in Korea, this is rather true.
  - rochellle 10y ago
    Kim Jong Un doesn't quite strike me as a suicidal personality. Furthermore, I suspect he is not surrounded suicidal staff. There's no end-game in a spontaneous lashing out at anybody in the region. It's not a winnable situation for North Korea to attack anybody. They don't get anything from actual violent belligerence. They're basically a bee hive. They've got their territory, and there's not much else happening, except maybe them screwing around on the internet for kicks, and their science projects like their ICBM program. At some point, his wife will bear a son. He'll have an heir, and life goes on. But what if war cracked the country open, and he got taken out. What would a re-integration of North Korean society look like?
    - omarchowdhury 10y ago
      It would look like enslavement via factory work.
    - mack73 10y ago
      I don't think what we need right now is a world police, especially not an American one. But, since you mention a region on earth that you seem to think is in need of integrating with the rest, what would you think would happen to the region that is USA if civil war cracked it open? Do you think at least half of that country could be integrated with the rest of the world?
      - chicxulub 10y ago
        Gee, you seem to be pointing a tough question at somebody who advocated some "world policing" but I wonder who that was because it wasn't the parent post. In fact, re-read that comment, because what was said pretty much advocated policing absolutely nobody. But, okay, let's all argue. You're right. North Korea isn't isolated from the world at all, and its citizens pretty much go anywhere they want, do whatever they want, and come back home whenever they're done doing as they please. But I wonder: if the typical North Korean citizen were unhappy (and we know they aren't), where would they go, and what would they do, if this hypothetical repressive lid (which doesn't exist) were suddenly lifted, and the pressure of a (normal) subculture were relaxed?
      - geezerjay 10y ago
        > But, since you mention a region on earth that you seem to think is in need of integrating You do know that Korea was artificially split in half due to the ongoing war, don't you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea Germany was also split, and was reunited. I don't believe it's necessary to explain why.
      - astrodust 10y ago
        When the US does split you're going to have multiple fragments, one of which will be so impossible to deal with that everyone else will just pretend they don't exist.
    - bingomad123 10y ago
      > . They've got their territory, and there's not much else happening, except maybe them screwing around on the internet for kicks, and their science projects like their ICBM program. Totally agree. In fact having a sense of security can help him and his people have a better life and help American taxpayers avoid another needless war. I am not saying USA is at fault here but I think actually trying to increase trade with NK and letter NK be involved in world affairs littler more might help Kim actually do something better for his people. If USA polish bottoms of Saudi Arabia it can probably be little more nice to North Korea too. It might actually help the world peace. I think China will use NK as a borrowed knife eventually or USA might attack its own soil and blame it on NK to start a war.
      - petre 10y ago
        NK is a threat to its Soth Korean and Japanese neighbours, both US allies. So the US will never increase trade with NK to appease its sociopathic dictator. Rather than that they are moving a strike group with Aegis anti-ICBM missle capability into the area and talking to China saying "if you don't handle Kim, we will". I doubt there is going to be any attack on NK. The strike group maneuver is merely ment to discourage Kim and show South Korea and Japan that the US is still a reliable ally.
        yongjik 10y ago
        Depending on who you ask, half of South Koreans would say US is being an unreliable ally, casually talking about actions that could start a war in Korea. If bombs start falling on Seoul, it would matter little to my family and friends who fired the first shot. The common sentiment is "Shit, our allies and enemies are led by idiots. (Not to mention our own country, for the time being.) Let's hope nobody's crazy enough to do something stupid..."
        deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
        petre 10y ago
        They're all just showing off. I understand your concern, but South Korea is technically still at war with the North even if everybody only fires warning shots and plays propaganda over the border to annoy their neighbours.
nodesocket 10y ago
North Korea can't even get a missile to fire, yet SpaceX is able to launch a rocket into space and have it land itself back on a drone ship in the middle of the ocean. This should be enough evidence alone that free markets and capitalism is vastly superior. North Korea is a propaganda machine, and frankly their 1960's technology is a joke. EDIT I'd be curious to know the people that are down-voting what country they are from.
- tyingq 10y ago
  If the eventual goal is nuclear tipped missiles, high tech isn't so important, at least for the missiles. Almost accurate isn't just for horseshoes and hand grenades.
  - nodesocket 10y ago
    According to the BBC[1], while North Korea has successfully detonated five times, it is exponentially more difficult to get the package small enough to fit on a missile. [1] - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699
  - jeffdavis 10y ago
    Why do you say that? Missing with a nuke seems like a major failure and unlikely to have the intended effect.
    - tyingq 10y ago
      Blast radius + fallout radius. Either you want it as a terror weapon, and pinpoint accuracy isn't needed. Or you want it as a mutually assured destruction deterrent, and you only need so much accuracy to be credible. Fallout radius for a 15 megaton blast, superimposed on the north eastern US. Anything with numbers (roentgens) above ~500 is fatal, though less than that isn't harmless either: http://nikealaska.org/nuke/CasBravM.gif http://nikealaska.org/nuke/CasBravM.gif Much, much bigger than what the DPRK has tested, but the principal is the same. Low tech SCUD level accuracy is fine. The Nagasaki bomb missed by 3km. It was similar in size to what the DPRK has tested. And quantity makes up for quality.
boomboomsubban 10y ago
> The timing of the test, coinciding with Pence's trip and a day after the military parade, would suggest deliberate defiance How? The parade happened as part of the "Day of the Sun," their most important holiday and when they usually hold a military parade and showcase new weapons.
- timr 10y ago
  They launched it on Sunday. Day of the Sun was Saturday.
  - boomboomsubban 10y ago
    The parade they mention was Saturday, and Day of Sun is a three day holiday. Saying a test on day two suggests defiance still seems like a stretch.
    - timr 10y ago
      It's the public holiday honoring the founder's birthday. Everything I've seen, online or elsewhere, says it's one day.
      - boomboomsubban 10y ago
        The founders birthday is the fifteenth, and it is followed by two days of rest. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/04/15/north-korea-defectors/2085161/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/04/15/north-ko...
- bingomad123 10y ago
  For the paranoid everything is a conspiracy and for the macho posturing of USA everything is about them !
nickjarboe 10y ago
It seems to me that if a country has nuclear weapons and they are used in an attack, then one should desire them to be delivered by ICBM. Then there is no doubt where it came from and who attacked who. Living on the US Pacific coast, I sure do not like the idea of a North Korea with long range missiles, but they do have many submarines and a few nuclear weapons stealthily delivered by a few of those would have much worse long term consequences for civilization. The re-abandonment of American cities could happen just as they are starting to bloom once again after a long hiatus.
geezerjay 10y ago
> I don't think any meaningful evaluation of economic systems can be made here beyond isolation from the worlds physical and intellectual resources makes for poor innovation. Well, except that North Korea's economic system is a part of a one-package deal defined by communism, that comes with the repressive political systems and social structure. In fact, communism's central planned economy isn't possible without communism's oppressive political system and extensive repression efforts.
- tray5 10y ago
  You've obviously got strong feelings about communism, but your comment is factually incorrect. Can I recommend you google search anarchism and anarcho-communism? Hopefully they'll reveal to you more answers about the various economic systems and their shortcomings. I'd also recommend you search Juche which is the official economic system utilized by the North Koreans, and how it rejects communism.
  - geezerjay 10y ago
    > You've obviously got strong feelings about communism, but your comment is factually incorrect. History and reality have "strong feelings" about communism, as do those who actually had to suffer through it. Pulling "no true scotsman" stunts do nothing to change facts, and no amount of hand-waving is able to change history.
    - tray5 10y ago
      I don't wish to handwave, misconstrue or dismiss facts, in fact that's why I suggested you google those things!
- dang 10y ago
  We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14124258 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14124258 and marked it off-topic.
tzs 10y ago
Crazy question: could some of North Korea's weapon test failures be deliberate? They know their tests are being watched by the world. They know that if they get to a point where they are an believable imminent threat there might be preemptive action taken against them. Given that, it would be in their interest to make sure the rest of the world underestimates their progress. One way that could help with that would be when doing a test to test X make it so it looks like it is actually testing Y, and make sure that the Y test prominently fails.

38 points by mabynogy 10y ago

astrodust 10y ago

Yay we get to live another day!

marak830 10y ago
As someone living in Japan with friends in Korea, this is rather true.
- rochellle 10y ago
  Kim Jong Un doesn't quite strike me as a suicidal personality. Furthermore, I suspect he is not surrounded suicidal staff. There's no end-game in a spontaneous lashing out at anybody in the region. It's not a winnable situation for North Korea to attack anybody. They don't get anything from actual violent belligerence. They're basically a bee hive. They've got their territory, and there's not much else happening, except maybe them screwing around on the internet for kicks, and their science projects like their ICBM program. At some point, his wife will bear a son. He'll have an heir, and life goes on. But what if war cracked the country open, and he got taken out. What would a re-integration of North Korean society look like?
  - omarchowdhury 10y ago
    It would look like enslavement via factory work.
  - mack73 10y ago
    I don't think what we need right now is a world police, especially not an American one. But, since you mention a region on earth that you seem to think is in need of integrating with the rest, what would you think would happen to the region that is USA if civil war cracked it open? Do you think at least half of that country could be integrated with the rest of the world?
    - chicxulub 10y ago
      Gee, you seem to be pointing a tough question at somebody who advocated some "world policing" but I wonder who that was because it wasn't the parent post. In fact, re-read that comment, because what was said pretty much advocated policing absolutely nobody. But, okay, let's all argue. You're right. North Korea isn't isolated from the world at all, and its citizens pretty much go anywhere they want, do whatever they want, and come back home whenever they're done doing as they please. But I wonder: if the typical North Korean citizen were unhappy (and we know they aren't), where would they go, and what would they do, if this hypothetical repressive lid (which doesn't exist) were suddenly lifted, and the pressure of a (normal) subculture were relaxed?
    - geezerjay 10y ago
      > But, since you mention a region on earth that you seem to think is in need of integrating You do know that Korea was artificially split in half due to the ongoing war, don't you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea Germany was also split, and was reunited. I don't believe it's necessary to explain why.
    - astrodust 10y ago
      When the US does split you're going to have multiple fragments, one of which will be so impossible to deal with that everyone else will just pretend they don't exist.
  - bingomad123 10y ago
    > . They've got their territory, and there's not much else happening, except maybe them screwing around on the internet for kicks, and their science projects like their ICBM program. Totally agree. In fact having a sense of security can help him and his people have a better life and help American taxpayers avoid another needless war. I am not saying USA is at fault here but I think actually trying to increase trade with NK and letter NK be involved in world affairs littler more might help Kim actually do something better for his people. If USA polish bottoms of Saudi Arabia it can probably be little more nice to North Korea too. It might actually help the world peace. I think China will use NK as a borrowed knife eventually or USA might attack its own soil and blame it on NK to start a war.
    - petre 10y ago
      NK is a threat to its Soth Korean and Japanese neighbours, both US allies. So the US will never increase trade with NK to appease its sociopathic dictator. Rather than that they are moving a strike group with Aegis anti-ICBM missle capability into the area and talking to China saying "if you don't handle Kim, we will". I doubt there is going to be any attack on NK. The strike group maneuver is merely ment to discourage Kim and show South Korea and Japan that the US is still a reliable ally.
      - yongjik 10y ago
        Depending on who you ask, half of South Koreans would say US is being an unreliable ally, casually talking about actions that could start a war in Korea. If bombs start falling on Seoul, it would matter little to my family and friends who fired the first shot. The common sentiment is "Shit, our allies and enemies are led by idiots. (Not to mention our own country, for the time being.) Let's hope nobody's crazy enough to do something stupid..."
        deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
        petre 10y ago
        They're all just showing off. I understand your concern, but South Korea is technically still at war with the North even if everybody only fires warning shots and plays propaganda over the border to annoy their neighbours.

nodesocket 10y ago

North Korea can't even get a missile to fire, yet SpaceX is able to launch a rocket into space and have it land itself back on a drone ship in the middle of the ocean. This should be enough evidence alone that free markets and capitalism is vastly superior. North Korea is a propaganda machine, and frankly their 1960's technology is a joke. EDIT I'd be curious to know the people that are down-voting what country they are from.

tyingq 10y ago
If the eventual goal is nuclear tipped missiles, high tech isn't so important, at least for the missiles. Almost accurate isn't just for horseshoes and hand grenades.
- nodesocket 10y ago
  According to the BBC[1], while North Korea has successfully detonated five times, it is exponentially more difficult to get the package small enough to fit on a missile. [1] - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699
- jeffdavis 10y ago
  Why do you say that? Missing with a nuke seems like a major failure and unlikely to have the intended effect.
  - tyingq 10y ago
    Blast radius + fallout radius. Either you want it as a terror weapon, and pinpoint accuracy isn't needed. Or you want it as a mutually assured destruction deterrent, and you only need so much accuracy to be credible. Fallout radius for a 15 megaton blast, superimposed on the north eastern US. Anything with numbers (roentgens) above ~500 is fatal, though less than that isn't harmless either: http://nikealaska.org/nuke/CasBravM.gif http://nikealaska.org/nuke/CasBravM.gif Much, much bigger than what the DPRK has tested, but the principal is the same. Low tech SCUD level accuracy is fine. The Nagasaki bomb missed by 3km. It was similar in size to what the DPRK has tested. And quantity makes up for quality.

boomboomsubban 10y ago

> The timing of the test, coinciding with Pence's trip and a day after the military parade, would suggest deliberate defiance How? The parade happened as part of the "Day of the Sun," their most important holiday and when they usually hold a military parade and showcase new weapons.

timr 10y ago
They launched it on Sunday. Day of the Sun was Saturday.
- boomboomsubban 10y ago
  The parade they mention was Saturday, and Day of Sun is a three day holiday. Saying a test on day two suggests defiance still seems like a stretch.
  - timr 10y ago
    It's the public holiday honoring the founder's birthday. Everything I've seen, online or elsewhere, says it's one day.
    - boomboomsubban 10y ago
      The founders birthday is the fifteenth, and it is followed by two days of rest. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/04/15/north-korea-defectors/2085161/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/04/15/north-ko...
bingomad123 10y ago
For the paranoid everything is a conspiracy and for the macho posturing of USA everything is about them !

nickjarboe 10y ago

It seems to me that if a country has nuclear weapons and they are used in an attack, then one should desire them to be delivered by ICBM. Then there is no doubt where it came from and who attacked who. Living on the US Pacific coast, I sure do not like the idea of a North Korea with long range missiles, but they do have many submarines and a few nuclear weapons stealthily delivered by a few of those would have much worse long term consequences for civilization. The re-abandonment of American cities could happen just as they are starting to bloom once again after a long hiatus.

geezerjay 10y ago

> I don't think any meaningful evaluation of economic systems can be made here beyond isolation from the worlds physical and intellectual resources makes for poor innovation. Well, except that North Korea's economic system is a part of a one-package deal defined by communism, that comes with the repressive political systems and social structure. In fact, communism's central planned economy isn't possible without communism's oppressive political system and extensive repression efforts.

tray5 10y ago
You've obviously got strong feelings about communism, but your comment is factually incorrect. Can I recommend you google search anarchism and anarcho-communism? Hopefully they'll reveal to you more answers about the various economic systems and their shortcomings. I'd also recommend you search Juche which is the official economic system utilized by the North Koreans, and how it rejects communism.
- geezerjay 10y ago
  > You've obviously got strong feelings about communism, but your comment is factually incorrect. History and reality have "strong feelings" about communism, as do those who actually had to suffer through it. Pulling "no true scotsman" stunts do nothing to change facts, and no amount of hand-waving is able to change history.
  - tray5 10y ago
    I don't wish to handwave, misconstrue or dismiss facts, in fact that's why I suggested you google those things!
dang 10y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14124258 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14124258 and marked it off-topic.

tzs 10y ago

Crazy question: could some of North Korea's weapon test failures be deliberate? They know their tests are being watched by the world. They know that if they get to a point where they are an believable imminent threat there might be preemptive action taken against them. Given that, it would be in their interest to make sure the rest of the world underestimates their progress. One way that could help with that would be when doing a test to test X make it so it looks like it is actually testing Y, and make sure that the Y test prominently fails.