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Can we say survivorship bias? There are millions of hardworking and talented individuals who try repeatedly and end up with at most moderate success. The numbe
by sshumaker 10y ago
Can we say survivorship bias?
There are millions of hardworking and talented individuals who try repeatedly and end up with at most moderate success.
The number of breakouts is so small that there isn't any statistical significance to what those individuals did differently. Mostly, they happened to execute well - but nailed the timing perfectly. Bill's success with MS-DOS (on the eve of the PC revolution), the rise of car culture and suburbia for McDonald's. And Cuban got really lucky at the height of the bubble.
I'm not saying they weren't smart or talented. But to perfectly nail timing requires the ability to predict the future. And if you read "The Road Ahead, 1st ed.", it's obvious even the talented BillG isn't much better at this than anyone else.
Which leaves us with luck.
- saji13 10y agoTiming is is easier if you try all the time
- WalterBright 10y agoExactly. If you wait for the wind to blow before building a sailboat, you'll never catch that "lucky wind".
- WalterBright 10y agoThe people who quit before they start fail 100% of the time.
- amelius 10y agoYou only get perfect timing if you see things coming miles ahead. That's probably what they did better than anyone else.
- mattferderer 10y agoThis reminds me of something coaches often said. "Practice doesn't make perfect, only perfect practice makes perfect." Sure luck has something to do with it, but if you're learning from your mistakes & constantly improving, you're chances of success get better all the time. It's just like throwing a ball at a hoop or any other thing in life. After a while you quit making as many mistakes that lessen your chance of success.
- ssharp 10y agoIf "moderate success" is achievable without extreme fortune, then that's a perfectly acceptable target to aim for. I agree that trying to become a billionaire is a fool's errand but if you're trying to become a millionaire, you'll end up more likely to be a billionaire. I've heard Mark Cuban say numerous times how incredibly lucky he was with Broadcast.com. But he's unapologetic in his belief that he'd be successful. He knew he'd become a millionaire and the work it took to get there, coupled with the right product and the right time is what made him a billionaire. I have to agree with that. I'm sure Gates, Zuckerberg, Bezos, etc. would all be successful if Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon didn't become incredible successes. They just wouldn't have been as successful.