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Parents will often tell their kids they need to leave at a certain time because they expect their kids will not accurately gauge their limited time and will not
by kakarot 10y ago
Parents will often tell their kids they need to leave at a certain time because they expect their kids will not accurately gauge their limited time and will not meet the ultimatum.
I'm not saying this is the sole reason we get non-conservative estimates of environmental impact over a period of time, but it definitely applies. Most of us, due to various factors both in and out of our control, are too self-centered to understand that just because something will not disappear in our lifetime doesn't mean it isn't their immediate responsibility. It's best to assume the earth will shake and sky will split tomorrow and act accordingly. Sure, this alarmist approach can lead to burnout with a large, ignorant portion of the population but we can supplement this with proper education instead of trying to find a single golden bullet.
On top of that, we can only be so accurate when speaking about time-spans of climate-related events we have never had a chance to study as thoroughly as today. But the overwhelming majority of scientists who have found themselves studying the climate feel a great sense of urgency about making changes while we can. They know more than anyone how out of our control this will soon be and how it affects our interconnected ecosystems. So there is a tendency to lean on conclusions that make waves and turn heads.
And it's not just reefs. For example, the alarmist prophecies of our fuel supplies drying up within a matter of decades has probably contributed very positively to extreme efforts by international parties to greenify our energy production and transportation systems. I doubt people would be trying as hard to make the switch right now if we still had half a millennium of reserves left. It's kind of like how many of us tend to procrastinate on our own work and increasingly put in more effort as the deadline approaches.
- harry8 10y agoSure. You acknowledge the credibility problem that exists and justify it as great lies in service of great justice. I don't make that justification. I believe that misinformation, propaganda and lies undermine the efficient allocation of resources to most effectively deal with the problems at hand (of which on this planet there are many, starting with 700m people without adequate access to clean drinking water). Whether such lies are told by oil companies, communists, facists, environmentalists, people calling themselves scientists bug engaging in politics or by some drunk, whether well-meaning or nefarious. Lies lead muddying of the decision making waters and to sub-optimal outcomes in the short term about specific decisions and then in the longer term, they destroy the process of the attempt at honest allocation leading to ridiculous populism of obvious lies and liars. Such people are provided with more ammunition than they need and can rightly claim themselves to be liars of the same kind. We've seen it before, we're seeing some more of it again and it may get worse before it gets better. It sure won't help the reef. "We're facing disaster but we can lie our way out of it?" Not much of a rallying cry. "Our lies are better than theirs!" Again... This one continues to resonate with me, if you haven't read it I highly recommend you do and work out what you disagree with and why. http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm
- kakarot 10y agoIt's been a long time since I've read that. Thank you. I do not think these are lies. Most of these scientific articles we read are highly sensationalized. The problem lies within the state of journalism. That isn't to say there aren't scientists who skew results to get more grant money, but that isn't really the case here. If you want a more accurate depiction of how the scientific community feels, stick to reading papers and not popular science news articles. That being said... 2/3 of the country's reefs being bleached is not something you would consider a disaster? You're conflating budgetary issues here. We can try to save the coral reef AND allot more money towards humanitarian efforts. That's the point of this article. They are forsaking their politicians for not making the right choices with their tax money. They are seeking international help. They aren't asking Doctors Without Borders to make a donation or bugging local food banks for money. They would probably rather the money come back from whatever scandalous Australian political/financial scams are going on. I don't know much about the state of affairs of the Australian government but don't you think this pretty much captures the issue?
- harry8 10y agoThere is /always/ an opportunity cost of any resource allocation. Assessing these and making the necessary tradeoffs so that they can be efficiently allocated is the whole ballgame. Muddying that up to influence it is one approach. It's the one I disagree with totally. 2/3 of the reef bleached is a disaster? I don't know. I don't even know what that means anymore? It sounds like it? Is it supposed to sound like it? Is it manipulative because I (and most australians) really do like the reef. Is it accurate science this time when in the past it has been propaganda? I have no idea. If it's the latter wolf has been cried too often and I'm reacting to it as if it's yet another piece of manipulation. This is not a good state of affairs for those in the environmental movement pointing at it and the response "Should I believe this more than I believe what Trump says?" The credibility should so wildly different as to be incomparable, but it isn't.
- kakarot 10y agoSometimes in our attempts to remain uninfluenced by others, we delude ourselves instead. Losing the coral reef is absolutely an ecological disaster because we have humans took it upon ourselves to pollute this planet at unsustainable levels and it is our responsibility to mitigate the damage we have caused.