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More like Ford investors: "Let me soberly evaluate the company's present and future financial situation before I make any commitments" Tesla investors: "TAKE

More like Ford investors: "Let me soberly evaluate the company's present and future financial situation before I make any commitments" Tesla investors: "TAKE MY MONEY"

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
pembrook 10y ago
Dead on. The price of Ford is predominantly being determined by institutional investors with a strong understanding of the dividend discount model. Investors moving the market on Ford are buying/selling what they believe to be a stable, mature company and are pricing pretty much ZERO potential for innovation into Ford. Tesla on the other hand is a darling of retail investors attracted to the marketing machine of "Silicon Valley disruption" and they have already priced in a belief that Tesla will win the global automotive market. DDM? What's a DDM? Meanwhile Ford, GM, and all the other automotive incumbents are investing in the same technologies as Tesla. Is it more likely that Tesla never falters (even slightly)? Or is it more likely one of the 10+ incumbents surprises with a self-driving/electric success? I know where I put my money. Interest rates will be climbing at the exact same time as Tesla will be attempting to expand their market to a larger audience who always purchase new cars with an accompanying loan. Oil prices are showing no indication of climbing again for years to come. Consumers have just replaced their aging vehicles in record numbers and won't be in the market for a new one for roughly 7-12 years. Good luck Tesla.
- zxcmx 10y ago
  Right so for Tesla to make sense, it has to make the iPhone of cars with Ford analogously in the position of Nokia. It looks like that's the expected level of disruption priced in right now. (Personally I have no idea whether this is likely or not).
- kerhackernews 10y ago
  Once self driving cars a the norm you'll see companies like Uber buying fleets of electric cars.

More like Ford investors: "Let me soberly evaluate the company's present and future financial situation before I make any commitments" Tesla investors: "TAKE MY MONEY"

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

pembrook 10y ago

Dead on. The price of Ford is predominantly being determined by institutional investors with a strong understanding of the dividend discount model. Investors moving the market on Ford are buying/selling what they believe to be a stable, mature company and are pricing pretty much ZERO potential for innovation into Ford. Tesla on the other hand is a darling of retail investors attracted to the marketing machine of "Silicon Valley disruption" and they have already priced in a belief that Tesla will win the global automotive market. DDM? What's a DDM? Meanwhile Ford, GM, and all the other automotive incumbents are investing in the same technologies as Tesla. Is it more likely that Tesla never falters (even slightly)? Or is it more likely one of the 10+ incumbents surprises with a self-driving/electric success? I know where I put my money. Interest rates will be climbing at the exact same time as Tesla will be attempting to expand their market to a larger audience who always purchase new cars with an accompanying loan. Oil prices are showing no indication of climbing again for years to come. Consumers have just replaced their aging vehicles in record numbers and won't be in the market for a new one for roughly 7-12 years. Good luck Tesla.

zxcmx 10y ago
Right so for Tesla to make sense, it has to make the iPhone of cars with Ford analogously in the position of Nokia. It looks like that's the expected level of disruption priced in right now. (Personally I have no idea whether this is likely or not).
kerhackernews 10y ago
Once self driving cars a the norm you'll see companies like Uber buying fleets of electric cars.