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Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revo

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

drzaiusapelord 10y ago
>a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines You mean largely trouble-free engines that run on ultra-cheap gas? ICE has environmental issues, of course, but the idea that electric is universally superior is questionable. There's no range anxiety with gas and any backyard mechanic can fix most issues. Your locked down $100,000 IoT car is a completely different beast. >Much of this will be of zero value in the near future. Says who? If anything everyone is bearish on electric since gas prices have fallen and how range and recharge times will always be less convenient. Electric might replace gas but it won't be in the near future and nothing stops Ford from launching an electric line of its own. Electric cars are a solved problem if you can convince people to pay the premium and deal with the range anxiety and long recharge times. Ford has already announced an electric Mustang and F-150 on top of the $30,000, pre-rebate, 2017 Focus you can buy today. Tesla has no monopoly on electric tech. The barrier to entry is non-existant for other car companies. edit: saying that the government will ban ICE isn't a market statement its a regulatory hope and for most nations a far off proposal. The idea that Tesla can only succeed with the government literally making their competitors illegal isn't actually a pro-Tesla argument. You guys are much less convincing than you think you are.
- cmarschner 10y ago
  >Says who It is foreseeable that ICEs will become banned, at least in Europe. Right now there is still too much lobbying by the traditional car makers, but long term there is no other choice for reaching climate goals. Edit: See e.g. http://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-end-of-the-internal-combustion-engine http://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-end-of-the-internal... https://www.autoevolution.com/news/germany-asks-eu-to-think-about-banning-internal-combustion-engines-by-2030-111988.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/germany-asks-eu-to-think-...
  - aanm1988 10y ago
    That would never work in the US. It would be both impractical and politically impossible. Most people don't have 35k to drop on an electric car, and even if they did the infrastructure doesn't exist.
    - dwaltrip 10y ago
      Things change. The car will landscape will look pretty different in 20 years.
    - cmarschner 10y ago
      If American car companies want to sell in the EU, which is about 500 million people, they will soon have no other choice.
- Arizhel 10y ago
  Gas isn't "ultra-cheap" in most other parts of the world, especially Europe and Japan. Norwegians are buying Teslas at an absurd rate. Watch for Europe to switch to EVs sooner; their main roadblock is the charging infrastructure. Unlike here in America, where suburbanites all have garages that can be easily retrofitted with a charging port, Europeans don't have that luxury usually. They're a lot like the eco-conscious pro-EV city dwellers here in America who park on the street and have no garage.
  - mantas 10y ago
    Norwegians are buying Teslas mostly because of tax breaks and parking/toll discounts.
MisterBastahrd 10y ago
Combustion engines in vehicles like the F series trucks aren't going away any time soon. You need generational leaps in battery technology and safety to compete with those trucks. The whole "rugged, dependable" thing that they play on the television is not just for show. I've got a former co-worker who buys a new F-350 supercrew every couple of years before selling it and the depreciation is less than a lease for a midsize sedan.
- lutorm 10y ago
  If it's so rugged and dependable, why does he need to buy a new one every couple of years?
  - John23832 10y ago
    consumerism
  - MisterBastahrd 10y ago
    Do you understand the difference between want and need? He uses the thing as a commuter vehicle and to tow boats every now and then. The reason he gets a new one is that the dashboard computer systems on these things get updated from year to year and he prefers to stay up with the most current technology. For most vehicles, 100K miles is nearing end-of-life. For an F series truck, 100K miles isn't even the halfway point.
John23832 10y ago
There is such a thing as retooling your existing infrastructure. Nobody is saying that Ford's offering will be a homogenous Ford vehicle... hell, neither is Tesla.
pc86 10y ago
Because Tesla's cars are not "hugely complicated contraption[s] made up of hundreds of mechanical parts?"
- sergiosgc 10y ago
  To a much lesser degree. An electric engine is a lot simpler, mechanically, than an ICE. To the point that, I think, major malfunctions will result in replacement of the engine instead of fixing engine components. Given good refurbishment logistics, this is much more efficient.
  - John23832 10y ago
    I'm sorry, but that's just not true. The basic premise of an electric "engine" is simpler than that of an ICE, but when you actually make the car, it's nowhere near as simple on paper. Just look at the issue people have had with getting Tesla's repaired... the "mechanics" don't even know that you have to keep the battery charged. Also, don't ignore the fact that we have 100+ years of experience with ICE.
    - nkristoffersen 10y ago
      Judging by the electric motor portion of the telsa manufacturing I would say it is much more simple than ICE https://youtu.be/AVCCroN7vS0 https://youtu.be/AVCCroN7vS0 Also, I would argue electric motors have been around far longer than ICE because it is simpler. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor
    - kamaal 10y ago
      >>the "mechanics" don't even know that you have to keep the battery charged. I've been through the CRT -> Flat screen television phase in India. Arguments were typically like these. How will TV repairmen fix these new TV's which have move like plug and play internals. Therefore new flat screen TV's won't sell? In the end it didn't work out well for TV repairmen. If its easier to identify and swap the malfunctioning part, you need lesser and lesser skilled professional to service these goods. You can dumb down the process to a point anybody can do it.
dkrich 10y ago
Dealerships aren't company owned. Ford sells cars to independent dealers who mark them up and sell them to the consumer.
youngtaff 10y ago
Don't underestimate the value of dealerships, Tesla took two months to replace a friends cracked windscreen

drzaiusapelord 10y ago

>a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines You mean largely trouble-free engines that run on ultra-cheap gas? ICE has environmental issues, of course, but the idea that electric is universally superior is questionable. There's no range anxiety with gas and any backyard mechanic can fix most issues. Your locked down $100,000 IoT car is a completely different beast. >Much of this will be of zero value in the near future. Says who? If anything everyone is bearish on electric since gas prices have fallen and how range and recharge times will always be less convenient. Electric might replace gas but it won't be in the near future and nothing stops Ford from launching an electric line of its own. Electric cars are a solved problem if you can convince people to pay the premium and deal with the range anxiety and long recharge times. Ford has already announced an electric Mustang and F-150 on top of the $30,000, pre-rebate, 2017 Focus you can buy today. Tesla has no monopoly on electric tech. The barrier to entry is non-existant for other car companies. edit: saying that the government will ban ICE isn't a market statement its a regulatory hope and for most nations a far off proposal. The idea that Tesla can only succeed with the government literally making their competitors illegal isn't actually a pro-Tesla argument. You guys are much less convincing than you think you are.

cmarschner 10y ago
>Says who It is foreseeable that ICEs will become banned, at least in Europe. Right now there is still too much lobbying by the traditional car makers, but long term there is no other choice for reaching climate goals. Edit: See e.g. http://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-end-of-the-internal-combustion-engine http://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-end-of-the-internal... https://www.autoevolution.com/news/germany-asks-eu-to-think-about-banning-internal-combustion-engines-by-2030-111988.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/germany-asks-eu-to-think-...
- aanm1988 10y ago
  That would never work in the US. It would be both impractical and politically impossible. Most people don't have 35k to drop on an electric car, and even if they did the infrastructure doesn't exist.
  - dwaltrip 10y ago
    Things change. The car will landscape will look pretty different in 20 years.
  - cmarschner 10y ago
    If American car companies want to sell in the EU, which is about 500 million people, they will soon have no other choice.
Arizhel 10y ago
Gas isn't "ultra-cheap" in most other parts of the world, especially Europe and Japan. Norwegians are buying Teslas at an absurd rate. Watch for Europe to switch to EVs sooner; their main roadblock is the charging infrastructure. Unlike here in America, where suburbanites all have garages that can be easily retrofitted with a charging port, Europeans don't have that luxury usually. They're a lot like the eco-conscious pro-EV city dwellers here in America who park on the street and have no garage.
- mantas 10y ago
  Norwegians are buying Teslas mostly because of tax breaks and parking/toll discounts.

MisterBastahrd 10y ago

Combustion engines in vehicles like the F series trucks aren't going away any time soon. You need generational leaps in battery technology and safety to compete with those trucks. The whole "rugged, dependable" thing that they play on the television is not just for show. I've got a former co-worker who buys a new F-350 supercrew every couple of years before selling it and the depreciation is less than a lease for a midsize sedan.

lutorm 10y ago
If it's so rugged and dependable, why does he need to buy a new one every couple of years?
- John23832 10y ago
  consumerism
- MisterBastahrd 10y ago
  Do you understand the difference between want and need? He uses the thing as a commuter vehicle and to tow boats every now and then. The reason he gets a new one is that the dashboard computer systems on these things get updated from year to year and he prefers to stay up with the most current technology. For most vehicles, 100K miles is nearing end-of-life. For an F series truck, 100K miles isn't even the halfway point.

John23832 10y ago

There is such a thing as retooling your existing infrastructure. Nobody is saying that Ford's offering will be a homogenous Ford vehicle... hell, neither is Tesla.

pc86 10y ago

Because Tesla's cars are not "hugely complicated contraption[s] made up of hundreds of mechanical parts?"

sergiosgc 10y ago
To a much lesser degree. An electric engine is a lot simpler, mechanically, than an ICE. To the point that, I think, major malfunctions will result in replacement of the engine instead of fixing engine components. Given good refurbishment logistics, this is much more efficient.
- John23832 10y ago
  I'm sorry, but that's just not true. The basic premise of an electric "engine" is simpler than that of an ICE, but when you actually make the car, it's nowhere near as simple on paper. Just look at the issue people have had with getting Tesla's repaired... the "mechanics" don't even know that you have to keep the battery charged. Also, don't ignore the fact that we have 100+ years of experience with ICE.
  - nkristoffersen 10y ago
    Judging by the electric motor portion of the telsa manufacturing I would say it is much more simple than ICE https://youtu.be/AVCCroN7vS0 https://youtu.be/AVCCroN7vS0 Also, I would argue electric motors have been around far longer than ICE because it is simpler. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor
  - kamaal 10y ago
    >>the "mechanics" don't even know that you have to keep the battery charged. I've been through the CRT -> Flat screen television phase in India. Arguments were typically like these. How will TV repairmen fix these new TV's which have move like plug and play internals. Therefore new flat screen TV's won't sell? In the end it didn't work out well for TV repairmen. If its easier to identify and swap the malfunctioning part, you need lesser and lesser skilled professional to service these goods. You can dumb down the process to a point anybody can do it.

dkrich 10y ago

Dealerships aren't company owned. Ford sells cars to independent dealers who mark them up and sell them to the consumer.

youngtaff 10y ago

Don't underestimate the value of dealerships, Tesla took two months to replace a friends cracked windscreen