5 ms·

Tesla delivers a record number of vehicles during the first quarter 2017 ~25,000

53 points by davidiach 10y ago

okket 10y ago
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- danhak 10y ago
  Are VW sales increasing 69% YOY too? Do their cars have an ASP of about $100,000? Apples and bananas.
simonsarris 10y ago
Much of the gains are coming from a huge increase in the (more expensive) Model X deliveries. 2016 Q1 model S: 12,420 2017 Q1 model S: 13,450 2016 Q1 model X: 2,400 2017 Q1 model X: 11,550 For guidance, Tesla wrote in their 2016 Q4 letter (dated Feb 22, 2017): > We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017 So they're on track.
- brianwawok 10y ago
  I would assume ahead of track as they should have more capacity this quarter
  - simonsarris 10y ago
    Delivery numbers may become slightly compromised as the existing infrastructure (not just assembly but the whole pipeline of getting them to customers) is routed to include Model 3 deliveries. This may make Q2 slightly worse than Q1, making them miss the projections, even if it makes Q3 really great! Situations like this may be why they've been including the "in transit for next Quarter" numbers so often.
bigtimeidiot 10y ago
Regarding the price of TSLA, perhaps someone can help: If Tesla were to somehow sell 500,000 Model 3's in 2018, and make a net profit of 15% on each $35,000 car (very high, the auto industry majors make ~5%), and somehow had all the capital necessary paid for, and no financing or other costs they would earn: 500,000 * $5,250 = $2.6 BB in profit With ~160 MM shares outstanding that's an EPS of ~$16. At $270/share, that's a P/E of ~17 -- cheap, but not incredibly so. In other words, if everything goes perfectly, buying shares now would be "sort of cheap", equivalent to a ~6% return. Obviously, the shares have a lot of risk. This is practically best-case. So how do you justify buying at these levels, with the risks involved? You can't say "growth" without modelling it. Do you expect TSLA to sell a million cars a year, or more with these types of margins? Where will the earnings come from?
- bpodgursky 10y ago
  The people long on TSLA are not expecting a payout by 2018, much like investors in Amazon did not expect a profit in 1998 after a 1997 IPO.
  - bigtimeidiot 10y ago
    >The people long on TSLA are not expecting a payout by 2018 This doesn't represent a single year payout, it represents a hypothetical annual payout of dividends. If the payout comes later than 2018, then you should pay less for it today. So what year? How much will the earnings be? How will those earnings be achieved (how many cars sold)?
    - maxander 10y ago
      Tesla is a long-term bet, but a virtue of the stock market is that the market's horizon for payouts is potentially much longer than any individual's. If I'm holding a bunch of TSLA stock and want a payout in 2018, it doesn't matter to me what Tesla's profits are in 2018, it only matters how optimistic the market is about Tesla's long-term future- since that dictates how much I can sell my shares for in 2018. If Elon Musk shuts down sales altogether in 2018 but somehow convinces everyone that 2019 (or later) will be a complete blockbuster year, it still works out in my favor, since the market has superhuman patience I lack.
topstriker515 10y ago
MightySignal | Full Stack Engineer | San Francisco, CA | https://mightysignal.com https://mightysignal.com MightySignal | Frontend Engineer | San Francisco, CA | https://mightysignal.com https://mightysignal.com MightySignal unearths and analyzes hard to find data in the world of mobile, and we're looking for engineers to join our growing team. Backend engineers here are free to explore daily and work on a variety of problems including reverse engineering, data discovery and analysis, and more. Frontend engineers own the whole process of designing and building the interfaces for our customers to absorb and make sense of our data. We're a small team and each person has a major role in guiding the future of our infrastructure and company. We're hoping to find people who share in our adventurous spirit. For a small taste of what we do, check out our free iOS and Android SDK reports: https://mightysignal.com/top-ios-sdks https://mightysignal.com/top-ios-sdks If you're interested, please reach out to osman at mightysignal dot com

53 points by davidiach 10y ago

okket 10y ago

danhak 10y ago
Are VW sales increasing 69% YOY too? Do their cars have an ASP of about $100,000? Apples and bananas.

Much of the gains are coming from a huge increase in the (more expensive) Model X deliveries. 2016 Q1 model S: 12,420 2017 Q1 model S: 13,450 2016 Q1 model X: 2,400 2017 Q1 model X: 11,550 For guidance, Tesla wrote in their 2016 Q4 letter (dated Feb 22, 2017): > We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017 So they're on track.

brianwawok 10y ago
I would assume ahead of track as they should have more capacity this quarter
- simonsarris 10y ago
  Delivery numbers may become slightly compromised as the existing infrastructure (not just assembly but the whole pipeline of getting them to customers) is routed to include Model 3 deliveries. This may make Q2 slightly worse than Q1, making them miss the projections, even if it makes Q3 really great! Situations like this may be why they've been including the "in transit for next Quarter" numbers so often.

bigtimeidiot 10y ago

Regarding the price of TSLA, perhaps someone can help: If Tesla were to somehow sell 500,000 Model 3's in 2018, and make a net profit of 15% on each $35,000 car (very high, the auto industry majors make ~5%), and somehow had all the capital necessary paid for, and no financing or other costs they would earn: 500,000 * $5,250 = $2.6 BB in profit With ~160 MM shares outstanding that's an EPS of ~$16. At $270/share, that's a P/E of ~17 -- cheap, but not incredibly so. In other words, if everything goes perfectly, buying shares now would be "sort of cheap", equivalent to a ~6% return. Obviously, the shares have a lot of risk. This is practically best-case. So how do you justify buying at these levels, with the risks involved? You can't say "growth" without modelling it. Do you expect TSLA to sell a million cars a year, or more with these types of margins? Where will the earnings come from?

bpodgursky 10y ago
The people long on TSLA are not expecting a payout by 2018, much like investors in Amazon did not expect a profit in 1998 after a 1997 IPO.
- bigtimeidiot 10y ago
  >The people long on TSLA are not expecting a payout by 2018 This doesn't represent a single year payout, it represents a hypothetical annual payout of dividends. If the payout comes later than 2018, then you should pay less for it today. So what year? How much will the earnings be? How will those earnings be achieved (how many cars sold)?
  - maxander 10y ago
    Tesla is a long-term bet, but a virtue of the stock market is that the market's horizon for payouts is potentially much longer than any individual's. If I'm holding a bunch of TSLA stock and want a payout in 2018, it doesn't matter to me what Tesla's profits are in 2018, it only matters how optimistic the market is about Tesla's long-term future- since that dictates how much I can sell my shares for in 2018. If Elon Musk shuts down sales altogether in 2018 but somehow convinces everyone that 2019 (or later) will be a complete blockbuster year, it still works out in my favor, since the market has superhuman patience I lack.

topstriker515 10y ago

MightySignal | Full Stack Engineer | San Francisco, CA | https://mightysignal.com https://mightysignal.com MightySignal | Frontend Engineer | San Francisco, CA | https://mightysignal.com https://mightysignal.com MightySignal unearths and analyzes hard to find data in the world of mobile, and we're looking for engineers to join our growing team. Backend engineers here are free to explore daily and work on a variety of problems including reverse engineering, data discovery and analysis, and more. Frontend engineers own the whole process of designing and building the interfaces for our customers to absorb and make sense of our data. We're a small team and each person has a major role in guiding the future of our infrastructure and company. We're hoping to find people who share in our adventurous spirit. For a small taste of what we do, check out our free iOS and Android SDK reports: https://mightysignal.com/top-ios-sdks https://mightysignal.com/top-ios-sdks If you're interested, please reach out to osman at mightysignal dot com