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I don't see his conclusion of "you have to get lots of smart immigrants to fill in"... he spends paragraphs talking about how there is a growing pool of able-bo
by tomc1985 10y ago
I don't see his conclusion of "you have to get lots of smart immigrants to fill in"... he spends paragraphs talking about how there is a growing pool of able-bodied, middle-aged citizenry yet he advocates bringing in even more people to maintain GDP.
This is a training problem; we have a surplus of workers (and potential workers) with mismatched skills. He should consider retraining willing reentrants before further attempting to crowd a dwindling workforce with outsiders.
- throw1233212323 10y agoJust wanted to say +1, and that this stood out to me as well.
- dom0 10y agoSounds like the "Fachkräftemangel" ("skilled worker shortage"), which is pushed into the media regularly by lobbyist groups (via "studies" and "statistics"). The goal is obviously to further reduce wages (even though they are already low here, Germany has some of the lowest unit labour costs on the entire continent) — many call it "cheap skilled worker shortage" now.
- ferentchak 10y agoI like "Cheap Skilled Worker Shortage" as a term. I have found there is also a shortage of "Cheap Premium Quality Steaks" here. For example my desire as a buyer would be to purchase an awesome steak for about a dollar but the failings of our society have again let me down.
- slavik81 10y agoAnd yet, that's kind of true. There is a scarcity of high quality meat. Many people would be made happier if steak would be no more expensive than carrots. Perhaps one day lab-grown meat will decrease the cost of production and make that a reality.
- pbhjpbhj 10y ago>Many people would be made happier if steak would be no more expensive than carrots. // I kinda know what you mean but ... if we structured society to make steak that cheap we'd fritter away resources on something that we don't really need to spend them on, we'd probably destroy a good deal of eco-systems too in the production, deforest to make cattle farms and such. Ultimately we think we'd be happier, but in practice we'd probably not be happier; just have more ecological damage to contend with. We'd probably be saying we just wish we had cheap carrots instead of steak all the time, probably.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- LoonyBalloony 10y ago"For example my desire as a buyer would be to purchase an awesome steak for about a dollar but the failings of our society have again let me down." "Lobby" congress to right these wrongs perhaps? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3GFG0sXIig https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3GFG0sXIig
- ryandrake 10y agoReminds me of the shortage of BMWs. I only want to pay $10k for a new one, and I've been searching for ages. Obviously there's a shortage.
- ryanmarsh 10y agoYes this stood out to me as well. I don't understand the rationale behind that argument. College attendance is at an all time high. Why is University not producing the thing that "smart immigrants" seem to have that U.S. graduates do not?
- dmoy 10y agoWe get to pick our majors in Uni here, so many are free to study things that don't train them in useful employment areas at all. In e.g. China you don't get much of a choice (unless you test ridiculously well). Idk that could be part of it.
- FT_intern 10y agoBecause work ethic is not taught in high school or university (or in American families/society). And many 3rd (or higher) generation Americans have an unhealthy sense of entitlement. Many American teens are told that they are able to become and do whatever they want and that money, knowledge, education and job stability have very little utility for happiness. At age 18, "whatever they want" means partying while gaining large amounts of debt and barely passing through a ridiculously easy, but useless liberal arts major.
- dukeluke 10y agoOur "entitlement" doesn't come from nothing. Wages have been dropping significantly since the recession. The loyalty that corporations show is lower than ever. All the jobs are either being outsourced or concentrated to a handful of urban centers in the country. Cost of living is going up every year, especially in housing. We're required to get $40-$100k in debt just to start our careers. All this is happening when supposedly our economy is doing better than ever. Then we hear constantly about how we're lazy, entitled, and should just work more. I'll tell you, I'm one of those "lazy" millennials, but I'm not lazy. I'm just not willing to be exploited just so corporations can profit more and more off of my labor. Why should I care about my work when it's obvious that it doesn't care about me?
- exclusiv 10y agoAgreed. We should be investing in our own people and figuring out why our system isn't producing especially in light of the fact that we spend more than most countries on education. I'm guessing it's a combination of things: - Recent grads from other countries are hungrier so they are constantly learning and have a plan. Many here get a sense of entitlement from graduating college because their parents came from an era where going to college was a near guarantee of a good job. Now it means very little as it's a requirement for most people. - Our universities leave our students with a lot of debt which can be overwhelming. Rather than take a good opportunity with an internship, they're wanting high salaries straight out of college. They're very short-sighted and entitled. When I hire - I'm not going to overpay because you took on a lot of debt. Most small businesses can't afford to hire at what these grads want. I'm personally hiring people with no formal experience in technology with good personalities and a hunger to learn and teaching them. - Universities are failing because most don't have the professors and curriculum yet to handle the needs of our evolving economy. I've always been interested in the web but they didn't teach any web development or technology when I was at school, so I taught myself instead of going to classes and ran an ecommerce store in 01 when margins online still existed. My brother is much younger than me and his school has these programs so that's a good thing. A college education is definitely oversold and has been for some time. It used to be an incredible value. As with most things, I think we'll see a return to the older times and apprenticeships will emerge as a competing alternative. I know General Assembly offers apprenticeships where you pay something like $3500/mo for a boot camp graduate and they work on-site for 4 days and spend Friday learning at GA. I haven't tried it yet because I've been hiring in-network but I think that's a pretty compelling offering for both the student and the company hiring.
- tomc1985 10y agoI just want to add that a lot of my jobless (and semi-employed), nontechnical friends would gladly jump into a good, entry-level position that would train them. What's sad is most of the entry-level work I see across most fields could be done with a minimum of training, even though employers insist on a college degree. There's a lot of computing grunt work that I would love to pawn off on a junior, but our hiring funnel is so messed up...
- 0x445442 10y agoI agree with the sentiment but the notion that all the folks inclined to work with their hands just need to become knowledge workers misses the mark I think. A bigger problem is that capitalists can easily take advantage of labor arbitrage. But laborers can't easily take advantage of cost of living arbitrage.
- tomc1985 10y agoIt's not that they should all become knowledge workers, but tradespeople too -- construction, plumbing, electricians, etc. From what I hear it is very hard to break into these fields without prior training, which you need to acquire on your own and with some other means of supporting yourself (which isn't always available). I would love to see a return to master-and-apprentice style workplace relationships.
- unholythree 10y agoSome of these trades do have apprenticeship program's in their unions and at least in my city in the licensing requirements. To be a journeyman electrician you are first an apprentice for 4 or five years, and at least in union shops your pay reflects your (theoretical) ability. So a fifth year apprentice make something like 80% of a journeyman as they should be capable of 80% of his tasks; while a first year apprentice pulls in less than half as he likely knows little of the trade.
- hackermailman 10y ago
- elevenfist 10y agoAble-bodied? Sure. Able-minded? Not quite. There's a huge surplus of middle-age men more interested in pointless office politics and political propaganda than doing good work, conducting themselves respectfully, and maintaining competence. And a dearth of the hardworking, skilled variety. This isn't just a training problem, it's a cultural issue. Praising charlatans like Scott Adams, and worse, failing to recognize their lack of ability and their motives is another cultural issue. Ultimately, the reason we have so many unemployed is because we're stupid. We suffer from a cultural stupidity partly the result of longterm political propaganda campaigns by less-intelligent politicians and industry leaders who can't gain support any other way (because they are also stupid). If America wants to slip back to the level of a third world country in terms of political systems and the average education of the citizenry, a higher unemployment rate is just par for the course. We have people unfit for training. As an aside, how can the American workforce maintain world class competency and compensation? We need to interact with the best in the rest of the world. Bringing them here and giving them the option to stay in a safe, fair environment is best. On the flip side, engineers need to believe they are being compensated fairly for their efforts, and not take so many pains to prevent the industry from developing better ways of doing things.
- dv_dt 10y agoI disagree, I've met many very sharp people who happen to not have a background that does not fit the traditional 'knowledge worker' funnel. The fundamental problem is that once you make early life decisions - our society has increasingly closed the paths to retrace that decision. Employers are unwilling to fund retraining, even if one re-educates themselves there is discrimination for entry positions vs someone young and cheap (and has no expectations of good treatment...).
- nol13 10y agoWish I disagreed with you more than I do.. Still I think mostly that's just what the system rewards. Hardworking and skilled people with disdain for office politics will either get exploited or never get their foot in the door in the first place.
- thehardsphere 10y ago
- edmccard 10y ago>I don't see his conclusion of "you have to get lots of smart immigrants to fill in" I wouldn't call a point made less than halfway through the article a "conclusion". He seems to place more importance on incarceration rates; from the final few paragraphs: As we close this letter, I want to highlight that one bolded paragraph again As we shall see, a single variable -- having a criminal record -- is a key missing piece in explaining why work rates and LFPRs have collapsed much more dramatically in America than other affluent Western societies over the past two generations... If we want to see things began to change, we going to have to deal with this variable. Perhaps we should rethink our concept of incarcerating everyone found guilty of using currently illegal drugs. Maybe we need to rethink about how long felony convictions stay attached to personal records.
- gozur88 10y ago> he spends paragraphs talking about how there is a growing pool of able-bodied, middle-aged citizenry yet he advocates bringing in even more people to maintain GDP. This makes no sense to me. The US economy exists to serve the people of the US, and GDP isn't an end to itself.
- remarkEon 10y ago>The US economy exists to serve the people of the US, and GDP isn't an end to itself. Those two points, really, have become increasingly hard to argue with my friends the last couple years.
- thehardsphere 10y agoThat is correct, but if GDP remains stagnant or falls, that becomes harder to do. GDP per capita is one of the ways that the wealth of a nation's citizenry is measured, so if that is declining due to low productivity and continued population growth, that's trouble. Basically means that the economy isn't going to be able to serve people.
- gozur88 10y agoI understand what you're saying, but I don't think looking at GDP to the exclusion of other factors is a very useful exercise. If GDP per capita is the way you're measuring wealth, you're not doing yourself any favor by adding more people to the denominator. Also, having a higher GDP doesn't help if it means everyone is burdened by the additional strain of providing for all the people who are out of work as a result of whatever policy you used to goose GDP.
- thehardsphere 10y agoRight. It's basically an unresolved empirical question as to whether or not bringing all of those new people here will result in the release of a magical growth fairy that will paper over any of the problems. If it does, glossing over the whole question isn't too bad. If it doesn't, then you're right.
- taysic 10y agoI have to agree. I'm an immigrant though I grew up here (and my parents had a strong work ethic and taught me that hard technical work is respected). I notice with my American peers that there is some disdain for office work. And also there is some lack of belief in their skillset. (As much as people say Americans are overly confident, I find the opposite in tech for those who simply haven't tried it enough. They don't know easy it can be.) The key for many is willingness and commitment to it in my opinion. At the end of the day, many folks could retrain themselves with all the tools they have for free online. I find that tech is not a profession you can exactly spoon feed to someone. This is why I think immigrants are an easier solution in some cases.
- visarga 10y agoEmployers don't want to own the problems of the workforce. They just want to make more profit by reducing costs. It would be ideal for them that people spend lots of money on their products while they pay as little salary as possible, by automating jobs. Of course it won't be possible, but nobody wants to be the first to make a sacrifice for the common good. It's a game theory problem - how to convince them to think more long-term and inclusive while they also compete and are selfish. I think we should move towards helping people become more self reliant, since there are fewer jobs. Maybe we could bootstrap communities of unemployed to take care of their own needs. Even with all the automation, we still have a job left: taking care of our own family and community.
- mc32 10y agoIt's also physically healthy for people to be employed. Unemployed people who have too much free time but little productive time don't typically use that time to better their health -worse, they develop bad eating habits. We could learn a thing or two from Japan regarding re-employing retirees. They feel useful and it keeps them physically and mentally healthy without having to depend on "new blood" to subsidize their lives.
- microcolonel 10y agoTry being able to pay them minimum wage.
- jackvalentine 10y agoThese kind of programs exist! Sadly it looks like Trump will be cutting the budget that they rely on. [1] > Judy Banks, a 70-year-old struggling to get by, said she voted for Trump because “he was talking about getting rid of those illegals.” But Banks now finds herself shocked that he also has his sights on funds for the Labor Department’s Senior Community Service Employment Program, which is her lifeline. It pays senior citizens a minimum wage to hold public service jobs. “This program makes sense,” said Banks, who was placed by the program into a job as a receptionist for a senior nutrition program. Banks said she depends on the job to make ends meet, and for an excuse to get out of the house. [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/opinion/sunday/in-trump-country-shock-at-trump-budget-cuts-but-still-loyalty.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0&referer= https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/opinion/sunday/in-trum...
- mehaveaccount 10y agoTrump should close the H1-B program, and the EAD program. American workers just don't need it. Also, why are all of our STEM research professorships going to foreigners? That's paid by American tax money, hire American
- Arizhel 10y ago> Judy Banks, a 70-year-old struggling to get by, said she voted for Trump because “he was talking about getting rid of those illegals.” But Banks now finds herself shocked that he also has his sights on funds ... which is her lifeline. Karma is served! I've seen much the same thing with people I know who voted for Trump. He's their savior because he promises to "get rid of those illegals". Somehow, it doesn't matter that his henchman Sessions is also going to massively ramp up marijuana enforcement, and this is likely to hit them because they're pot smokers. As long as he gets rid of the illegals, it's all worth it in their minds, even if that means they become a felon and spend a lot of time in a privately-owned prison.
- pizza 10y agoCalling it a training problem is like framing it as a need to simply "raise consciousness" - something which I feel tends to backfire
- blazespin 10y agoThe smart immigrants will generate companies that the elderly individuals to be retrained to work at.