9 ms·

> when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles They've been "serious" for a long time. Chevy has been selling the Volt since 2010. If they were going

by spyspy 10y ago

> when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles They've been "serious" for a long time. Chevy has been selling the Volt since 2010. If they were going to muscle out Tesla they would have done it by now. And it's not just about technology. Tesla has the customer reputation that companies like GM will never have again.

Robotbeat 10y ago
I own a Volt. Best car I've ever driven. GM doesn't care much for it. The only advertising they really do for it basically is trying to steal EV customers from Nissan's Leaf. Really dumb. And the dealers don't like it because 1) they don't know how to service them and especially 2) they almost never need servicing. If you run almost exclusively on electric, you only need like 4-5 oil changes in the entire life of the car. And the brakes last forever, too.
- vvanders 10y ago
  Yup, which is why any entrenched player is going to have to both build an incredible car and fight against their dealerships to sell it.
  - timr 10y ago
    Actually, the reason GM "doesn't care" about the Volt (I'm exaggerating here; they obviously care a little bit) is because they're rational: electric cars are not popular with mass-market consumers, and it's far from clear that they're going to become popular. GM is investing in what sells, and right now (i.e. for the last decade or two), that's SUVs and light trucks. Which doesn't bode well for Tesla, at least in the near term. You can certainly argue that fuel prices are going to go up and make electric cars popular. The question is: does it happen before Tesla goes broke? (Edit: downvoting doesn't change facts. From GM's own 2017 outlook [1]: "Ten all-new or recently redesigned crossovers are expected to drive GM’s sales and share higher in 2017, including the Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain, which will compete in the industry’s largest segment." And they're not joking about that last part. As of February 2017, SUVs and Trucks dominate the list of most-popular vehicles sold in the USA [2].) [1] https://www.gm.com/investors/sales/us-sales-production.html https://www.gm.com/investors/sales/us-sales-production.html [2] https://www.cars.com/articles/top-10-best-selling-cars-february-2017-1420694288140/ https://www.cars.com/articles/top-10-best-selling-cars-febru...
    - Robotbeat 10y ago
      The whole point of advertising is to make something popular that isn't already or to maintain popularity for something that would otherwise decline in popularity. As long as all GM is doing is sniping at other electric cars while doing general broad-based advertising of their fossil fuel powered vehicles, they're not lifting a finger to expand the EV market. I wouldn't worry about Tesla, anyway. Tesla has huge brand clout and advertises by making really awesome, inspiring vehicles. You want the fastest production sedan? There's only the Model S. And Model X is, after all, an SUV/crossover. And Model 3, which isn't, will be the basis for the Model Y, which /will/ be a crossover and/or light truck. Again, Tesla will be perfectly fine on the demand front.
      - timr 10y ago
        "The whole point of advertising is to make something popular that isn't already or to maintain popularity for something that would otherwise decline in popularity." You can't push on a string. Consumers buy bigger cars when gas prices are low, and more efficient cars when gas prices are high. It's why Toyota (which has built a brand identity around fuel efficiency) does worse when fuel prices go down. Marketing can influence consumers' affinity for brands and perception of product quality. It can't change economics. "Tesla will be perfectly fine on the demand front." I'm sure there's a market. After all, Lamborghini is "perfectly fine on the demand front", too. But will the demand for electric vehicles justify a valuation on par with General Motors? That's the rub.
        kbenson 10y ago
        > Marketing can influence consumers' affinity for brands and perception of product quality. It can't change economics. Actually, I would say marketing is one of the few things that actually can change economics, since it affects perception. Marketing can make someone think they need a new car when they don't, or that a car is affordable than an alternative when it really isn't (given financing, fuel economy, services, etc which are not always taken into account). People don't make decisions based on reality, they make decisions based on their perception of reality. If you can change that perception, you may change their decisions.
- jcfrei 10y ago
  Very interesting points. So as the other comment has pointed out, traditional automakers will have difficulties selling through their dealerships. Do any of the established players have any plans for their own dealerships / showrooms?
  - koolba 10y ago
    They can't as the rights to having local dealerships has already been split out. They'd have to buy out their dealers and probably change a bit of State law to accommodate that.
  - voidmain0001 10y ago
    Yes. https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/04/19/cinespace-sells-studio-land-to-general-motors.html https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/04/19/cinespace-sells-... GM Canada purchased land in downtown Toronto and made the announcement for a corporate campus with a dealership/showroom. The challenge will be with the existing franchise dealerships that will balk at GM taking a bite out of their market share. edit - The GM official announcements specifically refers to the sale and service of electric vehicles. http://media.gm.com/media/ca/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/ca/en/2016/Apr/0418_Double_Win.html http://media.gm.com/media/ca/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/...
- cmrdporcupine 10y ago
  I'm about to buy a Volt as soon as VW buys my dieselgate car back from me. I have had to go through a few different dealers to find someone who is serious about selling the thing. The platform looks amazing. It boggles my mind in all the years this vehicle has existed that they haven't made more vehicles based on it.
  - Robotbeat 10y ago
    Agreed. A pickup based on the Volt technology would be fantastic. Electric can allow crazy good torque. And you have a nice big battery, backed by a quiet and efficient built-in generator that only needs to run occasionally, to run power tools off of.
    - cmrdporcupine 10y ago
      I'm a small minority market, but I'd love an electric replacement for my 30hp diesel small compact utility tractor. It's a natural fit. The extra weight is a positive not a negative. The tractor is already a hydrostatic transmission in order to get continuous torque across RPMs and some in this market already use an electric motor for hydraulics (powered from a generator via the engine). It's only used for short bursts of activity so doesn't need a particularly huge battery even. But such a product doesn't exist yet :-(
      - radix07 10y ago
        It is coming soon! Here is a Hybrid ZTR prototype my company has been working on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34KU9OG9M8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34KU9OG9M8
        cmrdporcupine 10y ago
        That's nice and I would even consider buying one, but it's not a tractor. Need three point hitch, loader, PTO, and industrial tires. When you (or someone else) makes one with equivalence to about 30 or 40hp for under $30k and, I will instantly buy it.
- michel-slm 10y ago
  I'm on a work visa here in the US, and I couldn't get financing on a Volt because GM Financial insisted on doing > 30 months lease on their hybrid cars (and my work visa expires before then, though it's likely to be renewed anyway). Go figure. It's not like I can't afford the monthly payments.
  - chiph 10y ago
    Did you talk to an independent leasing company? You don't have to lease via the automaker. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-greatest-auto-lease-deal-ever-in-two-simple-steps http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-greatest-auto-lease-dea...
    - michel-slm 10y ago
      Will bear that in mind for next time, thanks! My other consideration is I am still trying to build a credit history, and don't really want more hard hits on my file than necessary...
  - FireBeyond 10y ago
    Sheesh. When I bought a Prius (admittedly, 2007), I was here on a fiancee visa. Toyota Financial had no problem okaying a three year lease even though my visa was (technically) three months (but available for extension).
    - michel-slm 10y ago
      Ah, interesting. A colleague had a similar experience to me getting an Audi (his lease doesn't extend beyond the H-1B expiration) so I wonder if the regulation is tightened up by now. Then again, maybe statistically people on fiancee visas are more likely to end up with permanent residency than people on H1B?
- btian 10y ago
  When people claim "best X I've used", they should list all models of X that they have used.
  - Robotbeat 10y ago
    Granted. :)
- zild3d 10y ago
  Is there something special about the brakes? Less maintenance needed makes sense, but I would have thought the brakes are no different than gasoline cars?
nwhatt 10y ago
GM isn't a threat to tesla unless Cadillac starts selling something to compete with the model S. As a Tesla shareholder what keeps me up at night are Mercedes, BMW, and Lexus.
- beamatronic 10y ago
  Have you seen the 2016 Cadillac ELR? [ 1 ] As it turns out, it's already discontinued? [1] http://www.cadillac.com/legacy-vehicles.html http://www.cadillac.com/legacy-vehicles.html
  - chiph 10y ago
    People didn't want to pay $65k+ for a rebodied Volt.
- SEJeff 10y ago
  If you get scared easily, or aren't in it for the long term, TSLA might not be the stock for you. Disclaimer: I'm long TSLA and Solar City Solar Bonds.
- rhino369 10y ago
  Isn't a large part of Telsa's value that it will eventually move into the Camry/malibu/Taurus field?
laurent123456 10y ago
> Tesla has the customer reputation that companies like GM will never have again. Tesla is more like a luxury brand so its biggest potential competitors will be the big 3 in Germany and possibly Lexus (which all have a pretty good reputation), and currently none of them propose that many options. Audi and Lexus have none. BMW has two, but only one of them can sort of compete with Tesla (can't go far with the i5 battery). Mercedes only has one (if I'm not mistaken). It really feels like they're only getting started, and if/when they start releasing really compelling models, it will be something more to deal with for Tesla.
- hangonhn 10y ago
  Oh there's a very good reason why the German carmakers are only now just getting started: http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-government-at-odds-with-industry-over-electric-cars-a-1123436.html http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-governme... In short, German carmakers' historical expertise in designing good internal combustion engines are worthless if electric cars take over. The auto industry is ripe for some serious disruption.
  - merb 10y ago
    btw. mercedes buys the batteries from asia and their engine did come from tesla, however they broke up and now they have a new partnership which helps them. german manufacturers have no interest in selling electric vehicles to the masses.
gutnor 10y ago
Before automaker were only focusing on the fully urban, second car. The like of Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, even BMW i3. Tesla has opened up a slice of the market the traditional maker didn't expect would work: primary car. This has a feel of Apple with iPhone in 2007. Even if Tesla ramp up tremendously and try getting in every car segment simultaneously, they will not have the capacity to provide all the cars that people are looking for, so the rest of the companies will likely continue to provide the bulk of the car market. Which is not a negative for Tesla, the market is simply enormous: it would take Tesla to produce over 2 million cars per quarter to even get over the single digit market share. The biggest risk now for Tesla is not being able to reach critical mass fast enough. I can understand their valuation and their need for cash. I can understand the shorters too, unlike the smartphone market, car purchase has at least a 4 years cycle and even in the first world, a car purchase is one of the biggest investment.

by spyspy 10y ago

Robotbeat 10y ago

I own a Volt. Best car I've ever driven. GM doesn't care much for it. The only advertising they really do for it basically is trying to steal EV customers from Nissan's Leaf. Really dumb. And the dealers don't like it because 1) they don't know how to service them and especially 2) they almost never need servicing. If you run almost exclusively on electric, you only need like 4-5 oil changes in the entire life of the car. And the brakes last forever, too.

vvanders 10y ago
Yup, which is why any entrenched player is going to have to both build an incredible car and fight against their dealerships to sell it.
- timr 10y ago
  Actually, the reason GM "doesn't care" about the Volt (I'm exaggerating here; they obviously care a little bit) is because they're rational: electric cars are not popular with mass-market consumers, and it's far from clear that they're going to become popular. GM is investing in what sells, and right now (i.e. for the last decade or two), that's SUVs and light trucks. Which doesn't bode well for Tesla, at least in the near term. You can certainly argue that fuel prices are going to go up and make electric cars popular. The question is: does it happen before Tesla goes broke? (Edit: downvoting doesn't change facts. From GM's own 2017 outlook [1]: "Ten all-new or recently redesigned crossovers are expected to drive GM’s sales and share higher in 2017, including the Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain, which will compete in the industry’s largest segment." And they're not joking about that last part. As of February 2017, SUVs and Trucks dominate the list of most-popular vehicles sold in the USA [2].) [1] https://www.gm.com/investors/sales/us-sales-production.html https://www.gm.com/investors/sales/us-sales-production.html [2] https://www.cars.com/articles/top-10-best-selling-cars-february-2017-1420694288140/ https://www.cars.com/articles/top-10-best-selling-cars-febru...
  - Robotbeat 10y ago
    The whole point of advertising is to make something popular that isn't already or to maintain popularity for something that would otherwise decline in popularity. As long as all GM is doing is sniping at other electric cars while doing general broad-based advertising of their fossil fuel powered vehicles, they're not lifting a finger to expand the EV market. I wouldn't worry about Tesla, anyway. Tesla has huge brand clout and advertises by making really awesome, inspiring vehicles. You want the fastest production sedan? There's only the Model S. And Model X is, after all, an SUV/crossover. And Model 3, which isn't, will be the basis for the Model Y, which /will/ be a crossover and/or light truck. Again, Tesla will be perfectly fine on the demand front.
    - timr 10y ago
      "The whole point of advertising is to make something popular that isn't already or to maintain popularity for something that would otherwise decline in popularity." You can't push on a string. Consumers buy bigger cars when gas prices are low, and more efficient cars when gas prices are high. It's why Toyota (which has built a brand identity around fuel efficiency) does worse when fuel prices go down. Marketing can influence consumers' affinity for brands and perception of product quality. It can't change economics. "Tesla will be perfectly fine on the demand front." I'm sure there's a market. After all, Lamborghini is "perfectly fine on the demand front", too. But will the demand for electric vehicles justify a valuation on par with General Motors? That's the rub.
      - kbenson 10y ago
        > Marketing can influence consumers' affinity for brands and perception of product quality. It can't change economics. Actually, I would say marketing is one of the few things that actually can change economics, since it affects perception. Marketing can make someone think they need a new car when they don't, or that a car is affordable than an alternative when it really isn't (given financing, fuel economy, services, etc which are not always taken into account). People don't make decisions based on reality, they make decisions based on their perception of reality. If you can change that perception, you may change their decisions.
jcfrei 10y ago
Very interesting points. So as the other comment has pointed out, traditional automakers will have difficulties selling through their dealerships. Do any of the established players have any plans for their own dealerships / showrooms?
- koolba 10y ago
  They can't as the rights to having local dealerships has already been split out. They'd have to buy out their dealers and probably change a bit of State law to accommodate that.
- voidmain0001 10y ago
  Yes. https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/04/19/cinespace-sells-studio-land-to-general-motors.html https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/04/19/cinespace-sells-... GM Canada purchased land in downtown Toronto and made the announcement for a corporate campus with a dealership/showroom. The challenge will be with the existing franchise dealerships that will balk at GM taking a bite out of their market share. edit - The GM official announcements specifically refers to the sale and service of electric vehicles. http://media.gm.com/media/ca/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/ca/en/2016/Apr/0418_Double_Win.html http://media.gm.com/media/ca/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/...
cmrdporcupine 10y ago
I'm about to buy a Volt as soon as VW buys my dieselgate car back from me. I have had to go through a few different dealers to find someone who is serious about selling the thing. The platform looks amazing. It boggles my mind in all the years this vehicle has existed that they haven't made more vehicles based on it.
- Robotbeat 10y ago
  Agreed. A pickup based on the Volt technology would be fantastic. Electric can allow crazy good torque. And you have a nice big battery, backed by a quiet and efficient built-in generator that only needs to run occasionally, to run power tools off of.
  - cmrdporcupine 10y ago
    I'm a small minority market, but I'd love an electric replacement for my 30hp diesel small compact utility tractor. It's a natural fit. The extra weight is a positive not a negative. The tractor is already a hydrostatic transmission in order to get continuous torque across RPMs and some in this market already use an electric motor for hydraulics (powered from a generator via the engine). It's only used for short bursts of activity so doesn't need a particularly huge battery even. But such a product doesn't exist yet :-(
    - radix07 10y ago
      It is coming soon! Here is a Hybrid ZTR prototype my company has been working on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34KU9OG9M8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34KU9OG9M8
      - cmrdporcupine 10y ago
        That's nice and I would even consider buying one, but it's not a tractor. Need three point hitch, loader, PTO, and industrial tires. When you (or someone else) makes one with equivalence to about 30 or 40hp for under $30k and, I will instantly buy it.
michel-slm 10y ago
I'm on a work visa here in the US, and I couldn't get financing on a Volt because GM Financial insisted on doing > 30 months lease on their hybrid cars (and my work visa expires before then, though it's likely to be renewed anyway). Go figure. It's not like I can't afford the monthly payments.
- chiph 10y ago
  Did you talk to an independent leasing company? You don't have to lease via the automaker. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-greatest-auto-lease-deal-ever-in-two-simple-steps http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-greatest-auto-lease-dea...
  - michel-slm 10y ago
    Will bear that in mind for next time, thanks! My other consideration is I am still trying to build a credit history, and don't really want more hard hits on my file than necessary...
- FireBeyond 10y ago
  Sheesh. When I bought a Prius (admittedly, 2007), I was here on a fiancee visa. Toyota Financial had no problem okaying a three year lease even though my visa was (technically) three months (but available for extension).
  - michel-slm 10y ago
    Ah, interesting. A colleague had a similar experience to me getting an Audi (his lease doesn't extend beyond the H-1B expiration) so I wonder if the regulation is tightened up by now. Then again, maybe statistically people on fiancee visas are more likely to end up with permanent residency than people on H1B?
btian 10y ago
When people claim "best X I've used", they should list all models of X that they have used.
- Robotbeat 10y ago
  Granted. :)
zild3d 10y ago
Is there something special about the brakes? Less maintenance needed makes sense, but I would have thought the brakes are no different than gasoline cars?

nwhatt 10y ago

GM isn't a threat to tesla unless Cadillac starts selling something to compete with the model S. As a Tesla shareholder what keeps me up at night are Mercedes, BMW, and Lexus.

beamatronic 10y ago
Have you seen the 2016 Cadillac ELR? [ 1 ] As it turns out, it's already discontinued? [1] http://www.cadillac.com/legacy-vehicles.html http://www.cadillac.com/legacy-vehicles.html
- chiph 10y ago
  People didn't want to pay $65k+ for a rebodied Volt.
SEJeff 10y ago
If you get scared easily, or aren't in it for the long term, TSLA might not be the stock for you. Disclaimer: I'm long TSLA and Solar City Solar Bonds.
rhino369 10y ago
Isn't a large part of Telsa's value that it will eventually move into the Camry/malibu/Taurus field?

laurent123456 10y ago

> Tesla has the customer reputation that companies like GM will never have again. Tesla is more like a luxury brand so its biggest potential competitors will be the big 3 in Germany and possibly Lexus (which all have a pretty good reputation), and currently none of them propose that many options. Audi and Lexus have none. BMW has two, but only one of them can sort of compete with Tesla (can't go far with the i5 battery). Mercedes only has one (if I'm not mistaken). It really feels like they're only getting started, and if/when they start releasing really compelling models, it will be something more to deal with for Tesla.

hangonhn 10y ago
Oh there's a very good reason why the German carmakers are only now just getting started: http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-government-at-odds-with-industry-over-electric-cars-a-1123436.html http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-governme... In short, German carmakers' historical expertise in designing good internal combustion engines are worthless if electric cars take over. The auto industry is ripe for some serious disruption.
- merb 10y ago
  btw. mercedes buys the batteries from asia and their engine did come from tesla, however they broke up and now they have a new partnership which helps them. german manufacturers have no interest in selling electric vehicles to the masses.

gutnor 10y ago

Before automaker were only focusing on the fully urban, second car. The like of Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, even BMW i3. Tesla has opened up a slice of the market the traditional maker didn't expect would work: primary car. This has a feel of Apple with iPhone in 2007. Even if Tesla ramp up tremendously and try getting in every car segment simultaneously, they will not have the capacity to provide all the cars that people are looking for, so the rest of the companies will likely continue to provide the bulk of the car market. Which is not a negative for Tesla, the market is simply enormous: it would take Tesla to produce over 2 million cars per quarter to even get over the single digit market share. The biggest risk now for Tesla is not being able to reach critical mass fast enough. I can understand their valuation and their need for cash. I can understand the shorters too, unlike the smartphone market, car purchase has at least a 4 years cycle and even in the first world, a car purchase is one of the biggest investment.