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> I think based on current trends we should anticipate that human-like ("human level") artificial general intelligence will be created within less than 10 years

by paol 10y ago

> I think based on current trends we should anticipate that human-like ("human level") artificial general intelligence will be created within less than 10 years Why? People have been saying this since the 1960s, so much so it's become a running joke. And some of them were very smart people too, like Marvin Minsky. What is it about AI that creates this illusion of progress (or at least, wild overestimation of progress)?

ilaksh 10y ago
"Wild overestimation of progress" has been part of the story for many technologies. Minsky was very optimistic, and then he got burned by the AI winter, and became very pessimistic about AI. There is quite a lot of very serious investment aimed at this type of 'real' AI now. For example Deep Mind, DARPA L2M, recent $100 billion Vision Fund that Softbank's founder said was intended to bring about the singularity. I believe it because I can basically see how to handle most of the challenges using embodiment or virtual embodiment and interactive learning/L2M etc., by combining or taking inspiration from various techniques that have been published. Stuff like this: Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks (adding plasticity to NN models) http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/03/13/1611835114.full http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/03/13/1611835114.full "Decoupled Neural Interfaces using Synthetic Gradients" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.05343.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.05343.pdf, somewhat similar to autoencoder/decoder pair use in "Feynman Machine: The Universal Dynamical Systems Computer" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03971.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03971.pdf "Safe Baby AGI" http://agi-conf.org/2015/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/agi15_bieger.pdf http://agi-conf.org/2015/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/agi15_bi... (cognitive architecture) "OpenPsi: Realizing D¨orner’s ”Psi” Cognitive Model in the OpenCog Integrative AGI Architecture" http://goertzel.org/OpenPsi_agi_11.pdf http://goertzel.org/OpenPsi_agi_11.pdf

by paol 10y ago

ilaksh 10y ago

"Wild overestimation of progress" has been part of the story for many technologies. Minsky was very optimistic, and then he got burned by the AI winter, and became very pessimistic about AI. There is quite a lot of very serious investment aimed at this type of 'real' AI now. For example Deep Mind, DARPA L2M, recent $100 billion Vision Fund that Softbank's founder said was intended to bring about the singularity. I believe it because I can basically see how to handle most of the challenges using embodiment or virtual embodiment and interactive learning/L2M etc., by combining or taking inspiration from various techniques that have been published. Stuff like this: Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks (adding plasticity to NN models) http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/03/13/1611835114.full http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/03/13/1611835114.full "Decoupled Neural Interfaces using Synthetic Gradients" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.05343.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.05343.pdf, somewhat similar to autoencoder/decoder pair use in "Feynman Machine: The Universal Dynamical Systems Computer" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03971.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03971.pdf "Safe Baby AGI" http://agi-conf.org/2015/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/agi15_bieger.pdf http://agi-conf.org/2015/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/agi15_bi... (cognitive architecture) "OpenPsi: Realizing D¨orner’s ”Psi” Cognitive Model in the OpenCog Integrative AGI Architecture" http://goertzel.org/OpenPsi_agi_11.pdf http://goertzel.org/OpenPsi_agi_11.pdf