4 ms·

I've thought about his point that lowering the death rate makes the problem of population growth worse a lot, especially in the context of Africa and the like.

I've thought about his point that lowering the death rate makes the problem of population growth worse a lot, especially in the context of Africa and the like. "Oh they're starving because they get almost no rain, so that land really shouldn't support anywhere near as many people as are there. Let's give them food aid." 10 years elapse, and say they're getting 7% per year growth thanks to food aid keeping them from starving, lack of contraception, etc. "Oh, there's twice as many of them now, so they're starving despite our current food aid. Double the food aid!" Repeat until you realize that you can't double the food aid forever.

ihodes 16y ago
The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.
- jackowayed 16y ago
  It's not as easy as giving them contraceptives. Culture and pragmatism both frequently encourage large families. For example, farming families have major incentives to have large families so that the kids can help with the farming tasks. So you'll need a China-like child limit or some other way to incentivize them to actually use the contraception you provide.
  - ihodes 16y ago
    I didn't say "just give them contraceptives." That's why education is key as well. People who are well-educated have less children, on average. Look at the US, for example. So educate them, and enable them to become wealthy. Right now, they can't.
    - pbhjpbhj 16y ago
      >People who are well-educated have less children But that doesn't mean that a well educated farmer will have less children. He can be as educated as you like but unless he can increase productivity in some way (access to loans for equipment say, like through Fairtrade) then he still has as much work to do and still needs to provide the labour. Suppose the education increase yields, unless we're on top of the trading practices then the value falls - everyone's yield has increased, if this means the market saturates he might make less money (perhaps none). If the market hasn't saturated he still needs more labour to gather the increased yield but gets the same income to share amongst the labourers - increasing the pressure to provide cheap labour by expanding his family. In short the problem is more complex and IMO is not due to lack of education. What you're saying is that a poor agricultural labourer should sacrifice there own ability to earn more in order to stave off over-population - why is it down to them. I'll go with the converse though. If you ensure that workers get a fair wage (Fairtrade again), one that can pay basic healthcare and education costs and ensure they have healthy food intake and a reasonable dwelling, then there is less pressure to reproduce (but possibly more opportunity to choose to? again it's complex).
- wendroid 16y ago
  I'm not offended by "them food aid."
- mistermann 16y ago
  Africa is not a barren land, much of Africa is perfect for farming. Much of Africa is not "perfect" for farming, but well good enough. However, if you have external nations bringing you food for free, why the hell would you go through the trouble to grow a crop, it's seriously hard work! And, if you're in the part of Africa where growing crops is not feasible....move?
  - iamwil 16y ago
    To add, there are unstable places in parts of Africa with civil wars that displace people into refugee camps where they can't do much farming.
  - skybrian 16y ago
    You realize that this isn't about renting a U-haul, right? It's about traveling, on foot or by public transportation, to somewhere where you don't own any land, don't speak the language, and don't know anyone. In other words, to become a refugee. There are plenty of people like that already, but they tend to move to the cities.
Flow 16y ago
http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth/ http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth...
- JoshCole 16y ago
  In the video explaining exponential growth it talked about how we would need to abandon many things we deem good in order to avoid over population. This video puts things in less grim terms by pointing out that increasing the average life expectancy reduces the number of children per women.
  - Flow 16y ago
    Yes, and I think it's very possible that our energy consumption continues to grow, despite the number of people on Earth stabilizes. What do you think?
    - JoshCole 16y ago
      Eventually it would have to stop growing, but I don't know if it will cease through foresight or catastrophe.
derefr 16y ago
Then send them yams and pomegranates. ;) (For those unaware, they both contain progesterone; wild yams were the first plant to be used in synthesis of birth control pills.)
fleitz 16y ago
"We" won't need to give "them" food aid forever, population growth levels off as wealth increases. Possibly the best thing that could be done for Africa is to end farm subsidies and argicultural tarrifs in the developed world. Here is a great link to the farm subsidies recieved in Manhattan, it's odd how one never notices the wealth of family farms surrounding central park. http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/10/ http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/10/
- bryanh 16y ago
  Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.
  - mistermann 16y ago
    Well, 1 thousand deaths now to achieve self sufficiency, or X deaths later, where x is likely much larger than 1 thousand. Not to mention, why the fuck in this day and age is the west still responsible for African people eating? We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed for where maximum food can be produced, etc etc. It is not a geographical problem, it is a political and cultural problem. It seems fairly obvious they can't sort out this problem, so whats the next move? We can tell them where to grow food, and where not to. We have given them Billions of dollars in aid. What else can you do? Of course, this is assuming foreign aid exists to achieve what it says it is trying to achieve....I can think of several groups of people that would like to keep Africa in the stone age for the time being. However, this doesn't dismiss the responsibilities of the leaders and citizens of Africa. All the technology you need is available on eBay, how about some charismatic man rises up and convinces you to get your shit together?
    - crayz 16y ago
      We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed... The entire country of Africa?

ihodes 16y ago

The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.

jackowayed 16y ago
It's not as easy as giving them contraceptives. Culture and pragmatism both frequently encourage large families. For example, farming families have major incentives to have large families so that the kids can help with the farming tasks. So you'll need a China-like child limit or some other way to incentivize them to actually use the contraception you provide.
- ihodes 16y ago
  I didn't say "just give them contraceptives." That's why education is key as well. People who are well-educated have less children, on average. Look at the US, for example. So educate them, and enable them to become wealthy. Right now, they can't.
  - pbhjpbhj 16y ago
    >People who are well-educated have less children But that doesn't mean that a well educated farmer will have less children. He can be as educated as you like but unless he can increase productivity in some way (access to loans for equipment say, like through Fairtrade) then he still has as much work to do and still needs to provide the labour. Suppose the education increase yields, unless we're on top of the trading practices then the value falls - everyone's yield has increased, if this means the market saturates he might make less money (perhaps none). If the market hasn't saturated he still needs more labour to gather the increased yield but gets the same income to share amongst the labourers - increasing the pressure to provide cheap labour by expanding his family. In short the problem is more complex and IMO is not due to lack of education. What you're saying is that a poor agricultural labourer should sacrifice there own ability to earn more in order to stave off over-population - why is it down to them. I'll go with the converse though. If you ensure that workers get a fair wage (Fairtrade again), one that can pay basic healthcare and education costs and ensure they have healthy food intake and a reasonable dwelling, then there is less pressure to reproduce (but possibly more opportunity to choose to? again it's complex).
wendroid 16y ago
I'm not offended by "them food aid."
mistermann 16y ago
Africa is not a barren land, much of Africa is perfect for farming. Much of Africa is not "perfect" for farming, but well good enough. However, if you have external nations bringing you food for free, why the hell would you go through the trouble to grow a crop, it's seriously hard work! And, if you're in the part of Africa where growing crops is not feasible....move?
- iamwil 16y ago
  To add, there are unstable places in parts of Africa with civil wars that displace people into refugee camps where they can't do much farming.
- skybrian 16y ago
  You realize that this isn't about renting a U-haul, right? It's about traveling, on foot or by public transportation, to somewhere where you don't own any land, don't speak the language, and don't know anyone. In other words, to become a refugee. There are plenty of people like that already, but they tend to move to the cities.

Flow 16y ago

http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth/ http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth...

JoshCole 16y ago
In the video explaining exponential growth it talked about how we would need to abandon many things we deem good in order to avoid over population. This video puts things in less grim terms by pointing out that increasing the average life expectancy reduces the number of children per women.
- Flow 16y ago
  Yes, and I think it's very possible that our energy consumption continues to grow, despite the number of people on Earth stabilizes. What do you think?
  - JoshCole 16y ago
    Eventually it would have to stop growing, but I don't know if it will cease through foresight or catastrophe.

derefr 16y ago

Then send them yams and pomegranates. ;) (For those unaware, they both contain progesterone; wild yams were the first plant to be used in synthesis of birth control pills.)

fleitz 16y ago

"We" won't need to give "them" food aid forever, population growth levels off as wealth increases. Possibly the best thing that could be done for Africa is to end farm subsidies and argicultural tarrifs in the developed world. Here is a great link to the farm subsidies recieved in Manhattan, it's odd how one never notices the wealth of family farms surrounding central park. http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/10/ http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/10/

bryanh 16y ago
Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.
- mistermann 16y ago
  Well, 1 thousand deaths now to achieve self sufficiency, or X deaths later, where x is likely much larger than 1 thousand. Not to mention, why the fuck in this day and age is the west still responsible for African people eating? We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed for where maximum food can be produced, etc etc. It is not a geographical problem, it is a political and cultural problem. It seems fairly obvious they can't sort out this problem, so whats the next move? We can tell them where to grow food, and where not to. We have given them Billions of dollars in aid. What else can you do? Of course, this is assuming foreign aid exists to achieve what it says it is trying to achieve....I can think of several groups of people that would like to keep Africa in the stone age for the time being. However, this doesn't dismiss the responsibilities of the leaders and citizens of Africa. All the technology you need is available on eBay, how about some charismatic man rises up and convinces you to get your shit together?
  - crayz 16y ago
    We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed... The entire country of Africa?