7 ms·

Will they? It seems it would just trigger migrations inland away from rising sea levels. The significant improvements in agricultural technology over the last

by hueving 10y ago

Will they? It seems it would just trigger migrations inland away from rising sea levels. The significant improvements in agricultural technology over the last 100 years likely means it wouldn't significantly impact the ability to grow food in countries rich enough to have the ability to geoengineer in this manner, so it might not happen.

M_Grey 10y ago
Look at North Africa and the Middle East... so much of the conflict now is driven at least in part by climate change. Where there's desperation for water and food, troubles that might have been just below the surface explode. Climate change isn't just sea levels rising, it's changing climates; some places with desert will green, some green places will turn to desert. It's already started.
- hueving 10y ago
  >Look at North Africa and the Middle East... so much of the conflict now is driven at least in part by climate change. I haven't seen this claim made before, do you have any links to read more? I was under the impression that nearly all of the conflict is driven by things like terrible government structures and ideological extremism (e.g. ISIS). >Climate change isn't just sea levels rising, it's changing climates; some places with desert will green, some green places will turn to desert. Right, but that's why I pointed out that countries with advanced agriculture technologies wouldn't be impacted nearly as hard and those are the same countries with the means to geo-engineer.
  - m_mueller 10y ago
    > I haven't seen this claim made before, do you have any links to read more? Here you go. Tl;dr: Syria had a longterm drought before the conflict started, leading to rising food prices and about one million Syrians without livelihood by 2011. https://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/ https://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-chan...
  - joe_the_user 10y ago
    Syrian Civil War was very much driven by climate. Essentially a portion of agriculture failed due to drought and a lot of the population fled to the central city, setting off fighting. You are correct there's a world food surplus so mostly countries with large farming populations would be impacted. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/a-major-contributor-to-the-syrian-conflict-climate-change/ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/a-major-contributor...
  - anexprogrammer 10y ago
    There's been a number of pieces that bread prices, or water, can be indicators of likely conflict. It's also revealing that so many regimes subsidise wheat prices. Try this [0] Mother Jones piece on "Bread Prices, A Measure of Political Stability", or one from the Conversation [1]. There was a BBC documentary of 10 years ago. I can't remember the title so haven't found a web link. [0] http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/climate-change-food-crisis-price-bread-political-instability http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/climate-change-f... [1] http://theconversation.com/food-security-how-drought-and-rising-prices-led-to-conflict-in-syria-71539 http://theconversation.com/food-security-how-drought-and-ris...
  - Intermernet 10y ago
    Have a look at http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought" >Abstract >Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.
- bjelkeman-again 10y ago
  Useful reference. > As described here, water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059....
- rimantas 10y ago
  As opposed to a hundred years ago when these were thriving places?
  - M_Grey 10y ago
    You're being sarcastic, but that just shows how much history you still have to learn. Start with Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq; you don't even have to go back 100 years.
- Gravityloss 10y ago
  Well, let me get this straight: Climate change is discovered by scientists. People with fossil fuel money create fake science and propagate it through the corrupt media, and the people lap it up because they want to believe it (some reason that it would lead to a big government, hence the science can't be true). They're blocking all action for 30 years. They also constantly harass the scientists. Climate change causes famine around the Mediterranean. Revolutions, civil wars and some tens of millions refugees and illegal immigrants result. These flow to neighboring countries and even a little to Europe, causing political problems there. There's potential for much bigger problems. Usually the people responsible are very much not the people suffering the consequences.
  - M_Grey 10y ago
    Nailed it, except that "tens of millions" could easily climb into, "Over a billion" depending on a number of factors. Then you add in advanced countries panicking and turning to geoengineering and the end accelerates.
delegate 10y ago
Just a week ago, in Australia: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89683&src=share http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89683&src=... Try and geo engineer against 50+ degrees C for weeks. Plants die at these temperatures and we don't have technology to counter that. At current rate, we've got maybe a couple of years left before heatwaves kill off all vegetation in many parts of the world with all the dire consequences for humans and animals living there. -- Unfortunately, it will take total collapse for people to understand that we have an impossible lifestyle - meaning a wrong philosophy about life, nature and each other. It's not about what we need to do, it's about what we need to stop doing. And I think that's the impossible task, because that means dismantling our current 'economy' and rebuilding it on new principles, new mathematics, etc.
- restalis 10y ago
  "Plants die at these temperatures and we don't have technology to counter that." Actually, we do. Much of that heat is generated because of barren land. The barren land is so because of the regulations that aim to preserve as much of the outback as it is. You say there isn't technology, but one of the possible measures was available for thousands of years. Just plant massively on that land. There are desert plants that resist well enough in that kind of environment and will reduce the amount of heating. Before starting on me with the dangerous consequences this may cause, just let me assure you that I'm well aware of the recurrent mass fires that occur in much of the continental Aussie and many other problems. I only wish to stress that there is something that can be tried out in the face of the kind of problems you pointed out to. Although I agree that human intervention carries significant aport in the global warming, I think though it merely accelerated a natural process that would have happened anyway. So maybe we don't have to stop doing something (fear-based, self-limiting approach) but try instead to understand and use these natural changes of our world (curiosity-based, exploratory approach). Let's embrace change, or at least give it a chance.
  - Diederich 10y ago
    I've always considered myself an ardent but highly pragmatic environmentalist. As such, I have realized that possible useful paths forward are some mass changes, on the scale of those that you describe. However, I haven't see anything in particular related to, effectively, terraforming most of Australia. Do you have any citations about the how that might work, and what impact it might have?
ChrisjayHenn 10y ago
Those improvements in agricultural technology nearly all require both cheap fossil fuels and cheap water. It seems unlikely both will be available in an era of rapid climate change.
- wbl 10y ago
  Uranium is great at producing heat that can be used for all kinds of things like desalination.
knz 10y ago
This assumes sea level change is the largest hazard of climate change. An increase in severe weather and changes in the climate of arable regions seems like a much larger hazard. Adaptation isn't necessarily the hardest part either - our world order is already in flux with migrants leaving the Middle East and Northern Africa - if people start leaving other regions it's going to be a challenge to maintain order. If people start fleeing countries like India, Pakistan, Indonesia, or Bangladesh en mass due to climate change there will be massive implications for the stability of the region.

by hueving 10y ago

M_Grey 10y ago

Look at North Africa and the Middle East... so much of the conflict now is driven at least in part by climate change. Where there's desperation for water and food, troubles that might have been just below the surface explode. Climate change isn't just sea levels rising, it's changing climates; some places with desert will green, some green places will turn to desert. It's already started.

hueving 10y ago
>Look at North Africa and the Middle East... so much of the conflict now is driven at least in part by climate change. I haven't seen this claim made before, do you have any links to read more? I was under the impression that nearly all of the conflict is driven by things like terrible government structures and ideological extremism (e.g. ISIS). >Climate change isn't just sea levels rising, it's changing climates; some places with desert will green, some green places will turn to desert. Right, but that's why I pointed out that countries with advanced agriculture technologies wouldn't be impacted nearly as hard and those are the same countries with the means to geo-engineer.
- m_mueller 10y ago
  > I haven't seen this claim made before, do you have any links to read more? Here you go. Tl;dr: Syria had a longterm drought before the conflict started, leading to rising food prices and about one million Syrians without livelihood by 2011. https://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/ https://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-chan...
- joe_the_user 10y ago
  Syrian Civil War was very much driven by climate. Essentially a portion of agriculture failed due to drought and a lot of the population fled to the central city, setting off fighting. You are correct there's a world food surplus so mostly countries with large farming populations would be impacted. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/a-major-contributor-to-the-syrian-conflict-climate-change/ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/a-major-contributor...
- anexprogrammer 10y ago
  There's been a number of pieces that bread prices, or water, can be indicators of likely conflict. It's also revealing that so many regimes subsidise wheat prices. Try this [0] Mother Jones piece on "Bread Prices, A Measure of Political Stability", or one from the Conversation [1]. There was a BBC documentary of 10 years ago. I can't remember the title so haven't found a web link. [0] http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/climate-change-food-crisis-price-bread-political-instability http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/climate-change-f... [1] http://theconversation.com/food-security-how-drought-and-rising-prices-led-to-conflict-in-syria-71539 http://theconversation.com/food-security-how-drought-and-ris...
- Intermernet 10y ago
  Have a look at http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought" >Abstract >Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.
bjelkeman-again 10y ago
Useful reference. > As described here, water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059....
rimantas 10y ago
As opposed to a hundred years ago when these were thriving places?
- M_Grey 10y ago
  You're being sarcastic, but that just shows how much history you still have to learn. Start with Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq; you don't even have to go back 100 years.
Gravityloss 10y ago
Well, let me get this straight: Climate change is discovered by scientists. People with fossil fuel money create fake science and propagate it through the corrupt media, and the people lap it up because they want to believe it (some reason that it would lead to a big government, hence the science can't be true). They're blocking all action for 30 years. They also constantly harass the scientists. Climate change causes famine around the Mediterranean. Revolutions, civil wars and some tens of millions refugees and illegal immigrants result. These flow to neighboring countries and even a little to Europe, causing political problems there. There's potential for much bigger problems. Usually the people responsible are very much not the people suffering the consequences.
- M_Grey 10y ago
  Nailed it, except that "tens of millions" could easily climb into, "Over a billion" depending on a number of factors. Then you add in advanced countries panicking and turning to geoengineering and the end accelerates.

delegate 10y ago

Just a week ago, in Australia: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89683&src=share http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89683&src=... Try and geo engineer against 50+ degrees C for weeks. Plants die at these temperatures and we don't have technology to counter that. At current rate, we've got maybe a couple of years left before heatwaves kill off all vegetation in many parts of the world with all the dire consequences for humans and animals living there. -- Unfortunately, it will take total collapse for people to understand that we have an impossible lifestyle - meaning a wrong philosophy about life, nature and each other. It's not about what we need to do, it's about what we need to stop doing. And I think that's the impossible task, because that means dismantling our current 'economy' and rebuilding it on new principles, new mathematics, etc.

restalis 10y ago
"Plants die at these temperatures and we don't have technology to counter that." Actually, we do. Much of that heat is generated because of barren land. The barren land is so because of the regulations that aim to preserve as much of the outback as it is. You say there isn't technology, but one of the possible measures was available for thousands of years. Just plant massively on that land. There are desert plants that resist well enough in that kind of environment and will reduce the amount of heating. Before starting on me with the dangerous consequences this may cause, just let me assure you that I'm well aware of the recurrent mass fires that occur in much of the continental Aussie and many other problems. I only wish to stress that there is something that can be tried out in the face of the kind of problems you pointed out to. Although I agree that human intervention carries significant aport in the global warming, I think though it merely accelerated a natural process that would have happened anyway. So maybe we don't have to stop doing something (fear-based, self-limiting approach) but try instead to understand and use these natural changes of our world (curiosity-based, exploratory approach). Let's embrace change, or at least give it a chance.
- Diederich 10y ago
  I've always considered myself an ardent but highly pragmatic environmentalist. As such, I have realized that possible useful paths forward are some mass changes, on the scale of those that you describe. However, I haven't see anything in particular related to, effectively, terraforming most of Australia. Do you have any citations about the how that might work, and what impact it might have?

ChrisjayHenn 10y ago

Those improvements in agricultural technology nearly all require both cheap fossil fuels and cheap water. It seems unlikely both will be available in an era of rapid climate change.

wbl 10y ago
Uranium is great at producing heat that can be used for all kinds of things like desalination.

knz 10y ago

This assumes sea level change is the largest hazard of climate change. An increase in severe weather and changes in the climate of arable regions seems like a much larger hazard. Adaptation isn't necessarily the hardest part either - our world order is already in flux with migrants leaving the Middle East and Northern Africa - if people start leaving other regions it's going to be a challenge to maintain order. If people start fleeing countries like India, Pakistan, Indonesia, or Bangladesh en mass due to climate change there will be massive implications for the stability of the region.