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Ballmer was not wrong about the iPhone. He said they would get 2-3% of the total phone market, not the smartphone market. He even makes that clear in the part t
by ssp 16y ago
Ballmer was not wrong about the iPhone. He said they would get 2-3% of the total phone market, not the smartphone market. He even makes that clear in the part that Gruber quoted: "... 1.3 billion phones ...". That's phones, not smartphones.
According to http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/apple-iphone-smartphone-market-share-surges-rim-slips/34181 http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/apple-iphone-smartphone-market... in the first quarter of 2010 Apple had 16.1% of smartphones and smartphones were 18.8% of mobile phones. That comes out to almost exactly 3%.
Ballmer also wasn't wrong about Windows Mobile. The "60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent" was not a prediction, it was just what he would prefer.
- boundlessdreamz 16y agoWindows phones are smartphones. That is the market share that ballmer was talking about.
- jonknee 16y agoBut yet he mentioned the number of total phones sold (1.3b) while talking market share so he didn't mean smartphones. Apple has a tiny sliver of the total phone market and that's what he meant. Microsoft has an even smaller sliver, but he said he wants/prefers a large chunk of that total market: > But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get. He was exactly right about Apple's position but there's no obvious way Microsoft will be able gain mass adoption. Google will.
- rimantas 16y agoApple has a tiny sliver of the total phone market and that's what he meant That was mentioned in the article: Apple has 10x less market share than Nokia and still more revenue.
- mechanical_fish 16y agoPerhaps Ballmer did get the right answer, after all. But was he asking the right question?
- ssp 16y agoGruber is right about Microsoft failing at phones and that there is not much they can do about it. However, I don't think Ballmer is in denial about that. It was and is obvious that at some point all phones will be what we call smartphones now. I think Ballmer's point is that even when that happens, the iPhone will not be able to sustain its 16%. It will still have insignificant market share. Android will not, though. It might get "60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent", and that's the share that Ballmer would have preferred run Windows. So yes, I think Ballmer asked the right question and got the right answer. He just doesn't have any way to respond to Android.
- timr 16y ago"I think Ballmer asked the right question and got the right answer. He just doesn't have any way to respond to Android." Of course he does: he can give away the new smartphone OS. It's not as if Microsoft has never given away software to win market share.
- darrenkopp 16y agoexactly. and he can give away windows os on mobile because they are getting paid for android os on mobile.
- clark-kent 16y agoHe would also have to make it open source with no strings attached then pray the community will adopt it.
- DrSprout 16y agoHe would also have to include a Webkit browser by default.
- ZeroGravitas 16y agoMaybe it was a prediction, it's just when he said "our software" he also said patents really quietly.
- tjogin 16y agoBallmer basically laughed the iPhone off as insignificant. Yeah, he's obviously clairvoyant.