5 ms·

I wonder sometimes if the hype surrounding AI/Automation isn't just a clever way for socialists to push their agenda.

LesZedCB 10y ago
unfortunately, it's not a concerted effort. We haven't been well enough organized to create a campaign like that. However, it does provide a really good talking point. We have, however, known that a development like automation was inevitable.
esahione 10y ago
The logic is irrefutable. At some time in the future the drive to increase profits by automation will increase unemployment in ways that will lead to the biggest recession we'll ever see if we don't have basic income. Can you see a capitalistic world working with 30% unemployment? How about 80%?
- TillE 10y ago
  This, combined with the worldwide rejection of neoliberal capitalism at the ballot box, should be really strong indicators that the status quo is unsustainable and you're not going to be able to reestablish it. UBI via a sovereign wealth fund is a good goal to work towards if you want to avoid some miserable dystopia.
- simonh 10y ago
  What percentage of the labour market in 1900 were doing jobs that don't exist anymore? In the 1920s the UK employed 2 million miners, yet nowadays we don't have 2 million unemployed mine workers on the dole campaigning to be let back down the pits so they can have their jobs back. Same goes for vast swathes of the employment landscape back then. Instead we have vast swathes of people employed doing jobs that didn't exist back then and in many cases were unimaginable. Looking at the UK, many times more people do service sector jobs now that didn't exist back then than the entire population of 1900 Britain. Almost a million people work in the 'Creative and Media' sector alone. You could argue that all those jobs could be done by AIs. Well, maybe, but I don't believe we'll have AIs capable of that for at least another 100 years. The last 50 years of AI research have barely even scratched the surface of the problem. So I believe the transition is going to be slow enough that we'll have several generations to adapt. It's not a problem we have to solve in 5 years or 10 or we're toast. Society is going to change so much, in ways that we can't anticipate, that trying to solve it now is futile. What we need to do is focus on the actual problems before us as they occur in the real world. There are enough of them, after all. Maybe Basic Income can be beneficial, even today with near-full employment by historic standards. I'm hopeful. But I'm skeptical that were anywhere near an automation-lead employment crisis. After all the world just absorbed adding a Billion Chinese people to the global work force pretty well.
  - milcron 10y ago
    >even today with near-full employment by historic standards There's quite a difference between the "employment" figures and the labor force participation rate[0]. The employment figure does not take into account people who have stopped looking for work, or people who have a part-time job that they wish was full-time. [0] http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/563caf319dd7ccfc418bcbfb-1200-900/october-2015-labor-force-participation-rate.png http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/563caf319dd7ccfc418...
    - simonh 10y ago
      Of course, but are you contending that in the past those factors were significantly different, and that the reason for the difference is primarily automation?
  - esahione 10y ago
    It's not necessarily about the jobs, it has more to do with the economic engine. The economic engine has been in a virtuous feedback loop for hundreds of years. People are born, get educated, find work, and become consumers and savers, thus generating the sales companies need to innovate and lending the capital for others to start new ventures. Step by step we've built this whole engine simply because we were born in this system. If jobs are lost fast enough, the whole engine shuts down: as AI replaces jobs faster than new economic sectors are created levels of spending in society will decrease, leading to reduced profits (or increased losses) and increased layoffs, thus speeding up the process. The thing is that AI has the potential to replace all jobs any human could ever have. Now, your second point regarding jobs that can't be replaced: every job can be replaced. The human brain isn't special it's just a machine. And you're looking at AI research in a linear fashion. At some point enough computational power breaks through any problem.
- AnimalMuppet 10y ago
  Irrefutable? "I do not think that word means what you think it means." (Or else, I rate that logic as considerably less airtight than you do...)
- nradov 10y ago
  At one point the logic of Communism was irrefutable. And yet they turned out to be wrong all the same. Don't be so confident that you can't predict the future.
sosuke 10y ago
I think it is genuine belief and a desire to find a solution to what looks like it could be a very chaotic future outcome. I've puzzle on it myself and find several options I come up with sounding socialist. I don't have an answer that I think is viable or that I even like but I believe that we could be quickly heading in the direction of 'robots' taking a on many more jobs.
Baeocystin 10y ago
It really isn't. AI and automation are both advancing so fast currently that even the tech-aware are, well, unaware at its speed, and what the coming social effects will be.
- brandon272 10y ago
  > AI and automation are both advancing so fast In what ways/areas are they advancing fast?
  - Baeocystin 10y ago
    https://www.wired.com/2015/01/ai-arrived-really-worries-worlds-brightest-minds/ https://www.wired.com/2015/01/ai-arrived-really-worries-worl... and https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-08-28/how-advances-automation-will-change-future-work https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-08-28/how-advances-automati... will get you started.
sgift 10y ago
The agenda that everyone should have the option to not be homeless? These socialists ... now they even use reality for their evil plans.

unfortunately, it's not a concerted effort. We haven't been well enough organized to create a campaign like that. However, it does provide a really good talking point. We have, however, known that a development like automation was inevitable.

esahione 10y ago

The logic is irrefutable. At some time in the future the drive to increase profits by automation will increase unemployment in ways that will lead to the biggest recession we'll ever see if we don't have basic income. Can you see a capitalistic world working with 30% unemployment? How about 80%?

TillE 10y ago
This, combined with the worldwide rejection of neoliberal capitalism at the ballot box, should be really strong indicators that the status quo is unsustainable and you're not going to be able to reestablish it. UBI via a sovereign wealth fund is a good goal to work towards if you want to avoid some miserable dystopia.
simonh 10y ago
What percentage of the labour market in 1900 were doing jobs that don't exist anymore? In the 1920s the UK employed 2 million miners, yet nowadays we don't have 2 million unemployed mine workers on the dole campaigning to be let back down the pits so they can have their jobs back. Same goes for vast swathes of the employment landscape back then. Instead we have vast swathes of people employed doing jobs that didn't exist back then and in many cases were unimaginable. Looking at the UK, many times more people do service sector jobs now that didn't exist back then than the entire population of 1900 Britain. Almost a million people work in the 'Creative and Media' sector alone. You could argue that all those jobs could be done by AIs. Well, maybe, but I don't believe we'll have AIs capable of that for at least another 100 years. The last 50 years of AI research have barely even scratched the surface of the problem. So I believe the transition is going to be slow enough that we'll have several generations to adapt. It's not a problem we have to solve in 5 years or 10 or we're toast. Society is going to change so much, in ways that we can't anticipate, that trying to solve it now is futile. What we need to do is focus on the actual problems before us as they occur in the real world. There are enough of them, after all. Maybe Basic Income can be beneficial, even today with near-full employment by historic standards. I'm hopeful. But I'm skeptical that were anywhere near an automation-lead employment crisis. After all the world just absorbed adding a Billion Chinese people to the global work force pretty well.
- milcron 10y ago
  >even today with near-full employment by historic standards There's quite a difference between the "employment" figures and the labor force participation rate[0]. The employment figure does not take into account people who have stopped looking for work, or people who have a part-time job that they wish was full-time. [0] http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/563caf319dd7ccfc418bcbfb-1200-900/october-2015-labor-force-participation-rate.png http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/563caf319dd7ccfc418...
  - simonh 10y ago
    Of course, but are you contending that in the past those factors were significantly different, and that the reason for the difference is primarily automation?
- esahione 10y ago
  It's not necessarily about the jobs, it has more to do with the economic engine. The economic engine has been in a virtuous feedback loop for hundreds of years. People are born, get educated, find work, and become consumers and savers, thus generating the sales companies need to innovate and lending the capital for others to start new ventures. Step by step we've built this whole engine simply because we were born in this system. If jobs are lost fast enough, the whole engine shuts down: as AI replaces jobs faster than new economic sectors are created levels of spending in society will decrease, leading to reduced profits (or increased losses) and increased layoffs, thus speeding up the process. The thing is that AI has the potential to replace all jobs any human could ever have. Now, your second point regarding jobs that can't be replaced: every job can be replaced. The human brain isn't special it's just a machine. And you're looking at AI research in a linear fashion. At some point enough computational power breaks through any problem.
AnimalMuppet 10y ago
Irrefutable? "I do not think that word means what you think it means." (Or else, I rate that logic as considerably less airtight than you do...)
nradov 10y ago
At one point the logic of Communism was irrefutable. And yet they turned out to be wrong all the same. Don't be so confident that you can't predict the future.

sosuke 10y ago

I think it is genuine belief and a desire to find a solution to what looks like it could be a very chaotic future outcome. I've puzzle on it myself and find several options I come up with sounding socialist. I don't have an answer that I think is viable or that I even like but I believe that we could be quickly heading in the direction of 'robots' taking a on many more jobs.

Baeocystin 10y ago

It really isn't. AI and automation are both advancing so fast currently that even the tech-aware are, well, unaware at its speed, and what the coming social effects will be.

brandon272 10y ago
> AI and automation are both advancing so fast In what ways/areas are they advancing fast?
- Baeocystin 10y ago
  https://www.wired.com/2015/01/ai-arrived-really-worries-worlds-brightest-minds/ https://www.wired.com/2015/01/ai-arrived-really-worries-worl... and https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-08-28/how-advances-automation-will-change-future-work https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-08-28/how-advances-automati... will get you started.

sgift 10y ago

The agenda that everyone should have the option to not be homeless? These socialists ... now they even use reality for their evil plans.