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Expect the numbers to drop right back down again in a few years. A major reason for people owning a EV, a law that was introduced back when Thinks were the big

Expect the numbers to drop right back down again in a few years. A major reason for people owning a EV, a law that was introduced back when Thinks were the big deal EV to have (yeah, right) that allowed EVs to use the bus lanes and not pay a toll, have been repealed. Note that it was only when Tesla made the EV comparable to a sportscar that it picked up in Norway. And that was because now the rich of the nation could bypass the rush hour traffic and not pay road tolls, while still own something that looked and drove like the neighbors gas guzzler. Over time that thinking trickled down to the wider population along with more practical and cheaper EV designs. But now the big incentive is gone, and thus i suspect the trend will reverse soon enough.

charlesdm 10y ago
Aren't normal luxury cars also crazy expensive in Norway because the state levies additional taxes on them? I read somewhere that a Porsche Cayman, which costs €70k in Belgium, would easily be €175k (converted in its NOK equivalent, of course) in Norway?
- PhilipA 10y ago
  You are thinking of Denmark.
  - charlesdm 10y ago
    Just checked: a Porsche GT4 (€88k in Belgium) costs €180k in Norway. So might be both Norway and Denmark. I have an honest question (and don't downvote me for this), but how do you enjoy life in Scandinavian countries? Everything seems to be taxed to hell: income, wealth, cars, alcohol, etc. Does that actually leave any room for fun that involves spending money? People don't need to be living in massive luxury and you don't always need to spend money to enjoy yourself, but aren't these countries pushing it?
    - Numberwang 10y ago
      I don't think we can really communicate how different things are to f.ex. the US. I enjoy paying lots of taxes and still have lot's of money after doing so. For me the stability and predictability of society is worth contributing to.
      - charlesdm 10y ago
        I live in Belgium, which is also a high tax country (but not as much as Scandinavian countries). The way it seems to me in Belgium is that the average person is barely getting by, which in part has to do with the high tax rate. As a resident, you do get back a lot, but I'm unsure whether it compensates for the lack of additional net income.
        tormeh 10y ago
        It's not really comparable. The political cultures in the two countries are very different. Belgium is a high-tax country only for those who pay their taxes in full, which many are able to avoid. The Norwegian real tax base is broader, so the load is more evenly distributed which gives the government more money which gives you more stuff back.
        charlesdm 10y ago
        This is correct. Employees generally can't avoid taxes, whereas (self employed, or wealthy) people who understand the tax code are able to pay very little. At the same time, most of the things the government is giving back tend to go to employees, so the people that pay most generally receive the most back from the system, which is good.
        vidarh 10y ago
        Belgium is the highest taxed OECD country by a substantial margin when looking at total tax wedge. Far higher than the Scandinavian countries for an overall tax wedge of 55.3% of labour costs (2015) [1]. For comparison the next two are Austria at 49.5% and Germany at 49.4%. Sweden 42.7%. Norway is at 36.6%, Denmark 36.4%. The thing is you obscure it with an unusually high employer social security contribution. But even looking at "just" income tax and employee contributions on an average salary, Belgium ends up at 32.4% of total employee costs (so these numbers are lower than the percentages paid of gross salary) vs. Norway with 25.2%, Sweden with 18.8% and Denmark at 35.8%. If you instead of looking at total labour costs, you look at gross wages, Belgium is at 42%, vs Denmark 36%, Norway 28.4%, Sweden 24.7% (for comparison: US: 25.6%). This also places Belgium as the highest taxed OECD country, Denmark is the extreme opposite of Belgium, in that Denmark has extremely low employer social security contribution and no employee social security contributions (it's baked into the income tax). [1] http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/taxation/taxing-wages-2016_tax_wages-2016-en#page21 http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/taxatio...
- digi_owl 10y ago
  Not directly luxury cars, but cars are taxed based on engine volume (and thus fuel consumption) afaik.
  - semi-extrinsic 10y ago
    Not just engine volume, but also on horsepower, CO2 emissions and total weight.
- agnsaft 10y ago
  This is true.
steve-benjamins 10y ago
I doubt that. Growth may slow but I have a hard time believing the market share would contract (that's a dramatic shift!). Edit: Removed paragraph about market share.
- jonsen 10y ago
  Marked share is the number sold, not the number in use.
interfixus 10y ago
Nonsense. Growth may slow down, but why in the world would you expect numbers to drop? Do you consider that internal combustion stuff to somehow have advantages over contemporary technologies?
- paganel 10y ago
  ICE vehicles are still considerably cheaper compared to EV. Show me a 10,000-15,000 euro electric hatchback that I'd be able to drive for 10+ years without having to purchase expensive batteries every 4-5 years and I'd buy it.
  - interfixus 10y ago
    My sincere guess is we shall reach the crossover point long before those ten years are up. Your new batteries won't cost you all that much in five years. But your petrol will.
  - alkonaut 10y ago
    In Norway a Golf costs $50k, a family sedan $80k and the most powerful 7-series can be $300k. This is because ICE vehicles have huge taxes in Norway. A pure EV basically gets a 50% tax cut, which can be $100k if you were looking at a comparable ICE car to the Model S. So in Norway the opposite is true "ICE vehicles are considerably more expensive". You can also ask yourself this: what value you get for your money on a given budget if you buy a Golf at $50k which is half taxes, versus a Bolt at a similar price with almost none of it being tax? I'd choose the Bolt any day. Obviously none of this translates to anywhere else. It's a lot easier to give a massive tax break if you had a huge tax initially, than it would be for e.g the US to slap on a 20% tax on new ICE vehicles. (Unless of course they are made in Mexico in which case it's apparently easy).
  - syncordie 10y ago
    The Mahindra e2o Plus is priced between 10-15K USD (but currently only available in India I think) https://www.mahindrae2oplus.com/ https://www.mahindrae2oplus.com/ I've owned an older model for 4+ years now. I haven't seen any drop in battery performance yet and the company says the battery should last 8+ years without problems. I can believe that based on my experience. The older model is available in the UK. https://mahindrauk.com https://mahindrauk.com
simonz05 10y ago
Tesla only sold 2 vehicles in Denmark in 2016, dropping from 2800 sold in 2015. This was after the Danish government added the regular registration tax to electric vehicles. That supports the commentators point of view. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=da&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Ffinans.dk%2Flive%2Ferhverv%2FECE8516793%2Fteslaboblen-er-bristet-har-kun-solgt-to-biler-i-2016%2F%3Fctxref%3Dext https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=da&tl=en&u=h...
- _delirium 10y ago
  For those skeptical there could be such a big drop, useful background is that the Danish registration tax for new vehicles is 150% of the purchase price (with roughly the first €10k exempted). Previously it was 180% of the purchase price above €10k, but electric cars were exempted. An agreement was reached among several parties in 2015 to lower the overall rate from 180% to 150%, but to phase out the electric-car exemption. This hits Tesla's high-end cars especially hard, e.g. the model that used to cost €100k will end up costing €200k+ after tax, which obviously is attractive to many fewer buyers. Previously the €100k tax-exempt Tesla was effectively competing against gasoline models in the €40k pre-tax range. I would expect a less dramatic decline for lower-priced electric cars, some of which do also have sales in Denmark, like the Nissan Leaf or Volkswagen e-uP, but I haven't found numbers.
  - taway_1212 10y ago
    Wow these taxes sound out of this world (in my home country Poland, it's 3% or 17%, depending on the engine size). Hasn't anyone attempted to go around it by finding someone in say Germany to register the car as a first owner and then immediately purchasing the car (as a used car now) from him?
    - loxs 10y ago
      Used car imports also get taxed by the same percentage. And you can't cheat, because they decide the value of the car, not your receipt.
revelation 10y ago
The timeline makes no sense. Clearly people buying a car in January 2017 would have been aware.
asgeirn 10y ago
EVs are currently more expensive than fossil counterparts, but that is projected to change in time as economies of scale start influencing the manufacturing costs. Service and operational costs are already lower on EVs than fossils, and that is unlikely to change significantly. For example, with current gasoline and electricity costs in Norway, powering an EV costs 10% of what a fossil cost per kilometer. So incentives might be necessary right now, but not for much longer.
sandworm101 10y ago
This is repeated around the world. Incentives are designed under the assumption that certain vehicle types need a leg up. Then car companies build cars to that specification, with an associated cost, and sell them to those who can afford. So the hybrid ferrari gets a break, but the non-hybrid but nevertheless more fuel efficient honda civic doesn't. Parking for electric vehicles. Bus lane access for hybrids. hov lanes now filled by rich people in limos (i saw a limo block a bus lane recently for 10 minutes. People on the buss were livid). Tax breaks for strapping a duracell to your SUV and calling it a hybrid. All started with good intentions but were corrupted by those with the resources to hack the rules.
- cowardlydragon 10y ago
  Yep, better not do anything. Right? Or... you close loopholes as they appear. Which happens in countries with a functional political system, unlike the US.
  - sandworm101 10y ago
    Or be tech neutral and instead write standards narrowly focused on a paticular evil. Give a bonus for measured low net emmisions, not a paticular engine tech.
madengr 10y ago
I bought a used Nissan Leaf last month. No way I am EVER buying another non-electric car. It's quiet. It's got surprising torque for an economy car. It's got a lot of room for a compact car. I'm 6'5" and gave plenty of head room, legroom, and vertical field of view. Have not been to a gas station in 5 weeks.
- YSFEJ4SWJUVU6 10y ago
  Most modern compact cars get 1000 km (or even more) on a single tank, so if you don't drive all that much, you don't need to visit gas stations more often than it's just wise to, to check tyre pressures and clean the gunk of your wind shield (this time of the year is pretty bad when it comes to mud flying on the streets). The difference is, a compact traditional car sells for 15 k€ new, while Leaf goes for 40 k€. Even with European fuel prices, the difference is going to buy you plenty of power juice to drive around – and can get you to your cabin at the neck of the woods without having to stop for a charge if you so wish.
  - gambiting 10y ago
    I don't know why you're getting downvoted - my commute is longer than the range of the Leaf. Not to mention that it's a lot more expensive than the petrol-powered competition,even after taking all tax breaks into account. I get that it's quiet and pretty sporty,but it's just not attractive financially in any way or form,unless you literally don't care about the purchase price.
    - seanp2k2 10y ago
      Or if you get e.g. A nice parking spot at work + free charging from your employer + carpool lane access as a single rider + $7500 IRC 30D tax credit + value the smugness from a "zero emissions" vehicle which relies on fossil-fuel-centric energy production in the US and rare earth minerals from around the world where they care much less about greenhouse gas emissions.
  - ZeroGravitas 10y ago
    I like to track the progress of disruptive tech by how extreme the "but it cant do X" comments get. If the big demographic problem for EVs is people who "don't drive all that much" but do drive a few hundred miles out to their cabin in the woods then it seems they're making pretty good progress.
snvzz 10y ago
I doubt the rich account for much of that 37%. Figure is too high for that hypothesis.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
lobster_johnson 10y ago
Maybe the solution is to reverse the lane regulations so that only EVs are allowed in the main lanes, everyone else go in the side lane. (Still needs a solution for buses.)
- majewsky 10y ago
  This might be the end-game, but you cannot do that right now. 37% of new vehicles might be EVs, but non-EVs are still the overwhelming majority on the road. If you limit those to one road, you just create a permanent nation-wide traffic jam. Just on one lane per road, though. :)
sundvor 10y ago
As a Norwegian expat: I think this ignores just how big of an impact the VAT (MVA) and other taxation exemptions are. You'll get much, much better cars for your money buying electric - rather than the anaemic, underpowered standard that is the result of the heavy CO2/performance taxation, with an electric car you'll end up with something zippy and fun to drive. Comparing e.g. Norway and Australia; the standard (petrol powered) engine models in Norway aren't even offered here, no-one would buy them. Sure the cars are loaded with every conceivable luxury option, yet ultimately even your base BMW has less power than the average Toyota Corolla in Australia. (Whilst you might say that this is bad, please don't get me started on the horrible idea Europe had to promote the use of toxic diesel cars over petrol ones; I used to ride a bicycle in Oslo, and it was foul.) I think the move to make electric cars so affordable is great. Whilst the more prosperous buyers were the first to benefit, there's now a generation of cars moving into the 2nd hand market making the cars more affordable for everyone. Also, with their hydro power, it is truly green energy.

charlesdm 10y ago

Aren't normal luxury cars also crazy expensive in Norway because the state levies additional taxes on them? I read somewhere that a Porsche Cayman, which costs €70k in Belgium, would easily be €175k (converted in its NOK equivalent, of course) in Norway?

PhilipA 10y ago
You are thinking of Denmark.
- charlesdm 10y ago
  Just checked: a Porsche GT4 (€88k in Belgium) costs €180k in Norway. So might be both Norway and Denmark. I have an honest question (and don't downvote me for this), but how do you enjoy life in Scandinavian countries? Everything seems to be taxed to hell: income, wealth, cars, alcohol, etc. Does that actually leave any room for fun that involves spending money? People don't need to be living in massive luxury and you don't always need to spend money to enjoy yourself, but aren't these countries pushing it?
  - Numberwang 10y ago
    I don't think we can really communicate how different things are to f.ex. the US. I enjoy paying lots of taxes and still have lot's of money after doing so. For me the stability and predictability of society is worth contributing to.
    - charlesdm 10y ago
      I live in Belgium, which is also a high tax country (but not as much as Scandinavian countries). The way it seems to me in Belgium is that the average person is barely getting by, which in part has to do with the high tax rate. As a resident, you do get back a lot, but I'm unsure whether it compensates for the lack of additional net income.
      - tormeh 10y ago
        It's not really comparable. The political cultures in the two countries are very different. Belgium is a high-tax country only for those who pay their taxes in full, which many are able to avoid. The Norwegian real tax base is broader, so the load is more evenly distributed which gives the government more money which gives you more stuff back.
        charlesdm 10y ago
        This is correct. Employees generally can't avoid taxes, whereas (self employed, or wealthy) people who understand the tax code are able to pay very little. At the same time, most of the things the government is giving back tend to go to employees, so the people that pay most generally receive the most back from the system, which is good.
      - vidarh 10y ago
        Belgium is the highest taxed OECD country by a substantial margin when looking at total tax wedge. Far higher than the Scandinavian countries for an overall tax wedge of 55.3% of labour costs (2015) [1]. For comparison the next two are Austria at 49.5% and Germany at 49.4%. Sweden 42.7%. Norway is at 36.6%, Denmark 36.4%. The thing is you obscure it with an unusually high employer social security contribution. But even looking at "just" income tax and employee contributions on an average salary, Belgium ends up at 32.4% of total employee costs (so these numbers are lower than the percentages paid of gross salary) vs. Norway with 25.2%, Sweden with 18.8% and Denmark at 35.8%. If you instead of looking at total labour costs, you look at gross wages, Belgium is at 42%, vs Denmark 36%, Norway 28.4%, Sweden 24.7% (for comparison: US: 25.6%). This also places Belgium as the highest taxed OECD country, Denmark is the extreme opposite of Belgium, in that Denmark has extremely low employer social security contribution and no employee social security contributions (it's baked into the income tax). [1] http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/taxation/taxing-wages-2016_tax_wages-2016-en#page21 http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/taxatio...
digi_owl 10y ago
Not directly luxury cars, but cars are taxed based on engine volume (and thus fuel consumption) afaik.
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  Not just engine volume, but also on horsepower, CO2 emissions and total weight.
agnsaft 10y ago
This is true.

steve-benjamins 10y ago

I doubt that. Growth may slow but I have a hard time believing the market share would contract (that's a dramatic shift!). Edit: Removed paragraph about market share.

jonsen 10y ago
Marked share is the number sold, not the number in use.

interfixus 10y ago

Nonsense. Growth may slow down, but why in the world would you expect numbers to drop? Do you consider that internal combustion stuff to somehow have advantages over contemporary technologies?

paganel 10y ago
ICE vehicles are still considerably cheaper compared to EV. Show me a 10,000-15,000 euro electric hatchback that I'd be able to drive for 10+ years without having to purchase expensive batteries every 4-5 years and I'd buy it.
- interfixus 10y ago
  My sincere guess is we shall reach the crossover point long before those ten years are up. Your new batteries won't cost you all that much in five years. But your petrol will.
- alkonaut 10y ago
  In Norway a Golf costs $50k, a family sedan $80k and the most powerful 7-series can be $300k. This is because ICE vehicles have huge taxes in Norway. A pure EV basically gets a 50% tax cut, which can be $100k if you were looking at a comparable ICE car to the Model S. So in Norway the opposite is true "ICE vehicles are considerably more expensive". You can also ask yourself this: what value you get for your money on a given budget if you buy a Golf at $50k which is half taxes, versus a Bolt at a similar price with almost none of it being tax? I'd choose the Bolt any day. Obviously none of this translates to anywhere else. It's a lot easier to give a massive tax break if you had a huge tax initially, than it would be for e.g the US to slap on a 20% tax on new ICE vehicles. (Unless of course they are made in Mexico in which case it's apparently easy).
- syncordie 10y ago
  The Mahindra e2o Plus is priced between 10-15K USD (but currently only available in India I think) https://www.mahindrae2oplus.com/ https://www.mahindrae2oplus.com/ I've owned an older model for 4+ years now. I haven't seen any drop in battery performance yet and the company says the battery should last 8+ years without problems. I can believe that based on my experience. The older model is available in the UK. https://mahindrauk.com https://mahindrauk.com

simonz05 10y ago

Tesla only sold 2 vehicles in Denmark in 2016, dropping from 2800 sold in 2015. This was after the Danish government added the regular registration tax to electric vehicles. That supports the commentators point of view. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=da&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Ffinans.dk%2Flive%2Ferhverv%2FECE8516793%2Fteslaboblen-er-bristet-har-kun-solgt-to-biler-i-2016%2F%3Fctxref%3Dext https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=da&tl=en&u=h...

_delirium 10y ago
For those skeptical there could be such a big drop, useful background is that the Danish registration tax for new vehicles is 150% of the purchase price (with roughly the first €10k exempted). Previously it was 180% of the purchase price above €10k, but electric cars were exempted. An agreement was reached among several parties in 2015 to lower the overall rate from 180% to 150%, but to phase out the electric-car exemption. This hits Tesla's high-end cars especially hard, e.g. the model that used to cost €100k will end up costing €200k+ after tax, which obviously is attractive to many fewer buyers. Previously the €100k tax-exempt Tesla was effectively competing against gasoline models in the €40k pre-tax range. I would expect a less dramatic decline for lower-priced electric cars, some of which do also have sales in Denmark, like the Nissan Leaf or Volkswagen e-uP, but I haven't found numbers.
- taway_1212 10y ago
  Wow these taxes sound out of this world (in my home country Poland, it's 3% or 17%, depending on the engine size). Hasn't anyone attempted to go around it by finding someone in say Germany to register the car as a first owner and then immediately purchasing the car (as a used car now) from him?
  - loxs 10y ago
    Used car imports also get taxed by the same percentage. And you can't cheat, because they decide the value of the car, not your receipt.

revelation 10y ago

The timeline makes no sense. Clearly people buying a car in January 2017 would have been aware.

asgeirn 10y ago

EVs are currently more expensive than fossil counterparts, but that is projected to change in time as economies of scale start influencing the manufacturing costs. Service and operational costs are already lower on EVs than fossils, and that is unlikely to change significantly. For example, with current gasoline and electricity costs in Norway, powering an EV costs 10% of what a fossil cost per kilometer. So incentives might be necessary right now, but not for much longer.

sandworm101 10y ago

This is repeated around the world. Incentives are designed under the assumption that certain vehicle types need a leg up. Then car companies build cars to that specification, with an associated cost, and sell them to those who can afford. So the hybrid ferrari gets a break, but the non-hybrid but nevertheless more fuel efficient honda civic doesn't. Parking for electric vehicles. Bus lane access for hybrids. hov lanes now filled by rich people in limos (i saw a limo block a bus lane recently for 10 minutes. People on the buss were livid). Tax breaks for strapping a duracell to your SUV and calling it a hybrid. All started with good intentions but were corrupted by those with the resources to hack the rules.

cowardlydragon 10y ago
Yep, better not do anything. Right? Or... you close loopholes as they appear. Which happens in countries with a functional political system, unlike the US.
- sandworm101 10y ago
  Or be tech neutral and instead write standards narrowly focused on a paticular evil. Give a bonus for measured low net emmisions, not a paticular engine tech.

madengr 10y ago

I bought a used Nissan Leaf last month. No way I am EVER buying another non-electric car. It's quiet. It's got surprising torque for an economy car. It's got a lot of room for a compact car. I'm 6'5" and gave plenty of head room, legroom, and vertical field of view. Have not been to a gas station in 5 weeks.

YSFEJ4SWJUVU6 10y ago
Most modern compact cars get 1000 km (or even more) on a single tank, so if you don't drive all that much, you don't need to visit gas stations more often than it's just wise to, to check tyre pressures and clean the gunk of your wind shield (this time of the year is pretty bad when it comes to mud flying on the streets). The difference is, a compact traditional car sells for 15 k€ new, while Leaf goes for 40 k€. Even with European fuel prices, the difference is going to buy you plenty of power juice to drive around – and can get you to your cabin at the neck of the woods without having to stop for a charge if you so wish.
- gambiting 10y ago
  I don't know why you're getting downvoted - my commute is longer than the range of the Leaf. Not to mention that it's a lot more expensive than the petrol-powered competition,even after taking all tax breaks into account. I get that it's quiet and pretty sporty,but it's just not attractive financially in any way or form,unless you literally don't care about the purchase price.
  - seanp2k2 10y ago
    Or if you get e.g. A nice parking spot at work + free charging from your employer + carpool lane access as a single rider + $7500 IRC 30D tax credit + value the smugness from a "zero emissions" vehicle which relies on fossil-fuel-centric energy production in the US and rare earth minerals from around the world where they care much less about greenhouse gas emissions.
- ZeroGravitas 10y ago
  I like to track the progress of disruptive tech by how extreme the "but it cant do X" comments get. If the big demographic problem for EVs is people who "don't drive all that much" but do drive a few hundred miles out to their cabin in the woods then it seems they're making pretty good progress.

snvzz 10y ago

I doubt the rich account for much of that 37%. Figure is too high for that hypothesis.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

lobster_johnson 10y ago

Maybe the solution is to reverse the lane regulations so that only EVs are allowed in the main lanes, everyone else go in the side lane. (Still needs a solution for buses.)

majewsky 10y ago
This might be the end-game, but you cannot do that right now. 37% of new vehicles might be EVs, but non-EVs are still the overwhelming majority on the road. If you limit those to one road, you just create a permanent nation-wide traffic jam. Just on one lane per road, though. :)

sundvor 10y ago

As a Norwegian expat: I think this ignores just how big of an impact the VAT (MVA) and other taxation exemptions are. You'll get much, much better cars for your money buying electric - rather than the anaemic, underpowered standard that is the result of the heavy CO2/performance taxation, with an electric car you'll end up with something zippy and fun to drive. Comparing e.g. Norway and Australia; the standard (petrol powered) engine models in Norway aren't even offered here, no-one would buy them. Sure the cars are loaded with every conceivable luxury option, yet ultimately even your base BMW has less power than the average Toyota Corolla in Australia. (Whilst you might say that this is bad, please don't get me started on the horrible idea Europe had to promote the use of toxic diesel cars over petrol ones; I used to ride a bicycle in Oslo, and it was foul.) I think the move to make electric cars so affordable is great. Whilst the more prosperous buyers were the first to benefit, there's now a generation of cars moving into the 2nd hand market making the cars more affordable for everyone. Also, with their hydro power, it is truly green energy.