5 ms·

Poland has the highest reading - something going awry at Chernobyl or somebody testing low yield nukes? I am also really disappointed this wasn't anywhere in t

by bitL 10y ago

Poland has the highest reading - something going awry at Chernobyl or somebody testing low yield nukes? I am also really disappointed this wasn't anywhere in the news, at least people could have taken some iodine. I understand the level is low but there is still non-zero probability of somebody going ill from it.

ge0rg 10y ago
Poland has the highest reading I wondered so as well, but the second-highest was from Spain, and I struggle to form a consistent picture from that.
- ars 10y ago
  You would need to merge the map with wind readings to try to figure out where it came from. But due to the fact that they have not done so I assume it's harder than it looks.
- neom 10y ago
  Spain might indicate that it happened in the water/sea off the coast?
jakub_g 10y ago
Regarding Chernobyl, they've just put in place a new sarcophagus in late 2016 after years of work. One would rather expect the radiation to get lower (but I am not an expert). Interesting anyway.
iSnow 10y ago
I think we can rule out low-yield nukes, those test would still create a noticeable signal. If I had to place a bet, then I'd put it on some low to medium accident at a nuclear power station in Russia that led to an emergency release of contaminated steam.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- matthewmcg 10y ago
  Somewhat of a digression, but this very technical discussion about nuclear test monitoring by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization is really interesting: http://omegataupodcast.net/185-nuclear-test-monitoring-and-the-ctbt/ http://omegataupodcast.net/185-nuclear-test-monitoring-and-t...
- dgut 10y ago
  I don't think there's much point in guessing.
lostlogin 10y ago
Is there a non zero risk from that dose? I don't know how to apply that result to an individual, but it would seem a likely big extrapolation on the linear no threshhold model. When was the shield moved over Chernobyl, could that have stirred things up?
- manarth 10y ago
  When was the shield moved over Chernobyl? November 2016, although the side walls won't be up until August this year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_New_Safe_Confinement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_New_Safe_Confinement
  - codecamper 10y ago
    How about a shield UNDER Chernobyl? Isn't the core still unstable & prone to heat-up / meltdown still?
    - manarth 10y ago
      How about a shield UNDER Chernobyl? They recognised the issue right away. Firstly, the bubbler pool was emptied of water (there was fear that if the core reached the water, it would cause a steam explosion). They started using liquid nitrogen to freeze the ground beneath the reactor, then scrapped that idea and filled the bubbler pool with concrete instead. They started digging a tunnel in May 1986 [1] (7 days after the accident), with a void below the reactor. They planned to fit a heat-exchanger into the void. It's not clear whether it was ever installed, but the consensus is that if it was installed, it was never used, and the core didn't reach the void [2]. [1] https://wiseinternational.org/chernobyl-disaster https://wiseinternational.org/chernobyl-disaster [2] http://knowledgeglue.com/amazing-un-seen-photos-chernobyl-disaster-page-4/ http://knowledgeglue.com/amazing-un-seen-photos-chernobyl-di...
patall 10y ago
Yeah, but taking too much iodine also results in a non-zero probability of side effects (I mean it is already not recommended to take pills for anyone over 45). If there is no real risk assumed, such news would only serve to spread panic and sensationalism. As long as it is not buried, I rather prefer it like this.
kkarp 10y ago
This is a map of air pollution in Europe. http://www.zzit.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Powietrze.jpg http://www.zzit.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Powietrze.jpg Poland is struggling right now because of huge smog. This makes me believe in this part of an article, which says that higher iodine detection might be caused by accumulation in smog.
- chinathrow 10y ago
  That sounds somewhat reasonable for the high readings in Poland, but why in Spain?
  - pvaldes 10y ago
    Is even more interesting if we take in mind that just last week, Spanish government was talking about to extend the lifetime and reopen one of the oldest nuclear plants located not far away from where those high measures were taken.
KMag 10y ago
> I am also really disappointed this wasn't anywhere in the news, at least people could have taken some iodine. Edit: I know this is harsh, but the OP should realize their post is somewhere on the anti-vaxxer-Facebook-post-scale. It's somewhere around a millipost, but it registers on the scale. What should the news flash say? "Run from the nearest banana, person, airplane, or mountain." I'm really disappointed at your disappointment despite an absolute lack of critical thought on your part. What fraction of a banana would you have to eat in order to have the same effect? How many nights would you need to sleep next to someone instead of alone to get the same dose? How many minutes at 30,000 feet does that correspond to? Back-of-the envelope calculations: the half life is about 8 days, remembering your infinite series from high school, 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 ... = 1. So, the total dose over an infinite time frame is the same as 2 half lives at the initial level, so 16 days = 1,382,400 at 1.5e-6 Bq/m^3 works out to about 2 decays per cubic meter over an infinite time frame. Even assuming you absorbed any decay from 10 cubic meters of air around you, I'm too lazy to look up the difference in number of Joules between Iodine and Potassium decay and work out what fraction of a banana you'd have to eat to get the same dose, or how many days of sleeping next to someone that works out to, but even assuming at steady state you absorb every radioactive decay from 10 m^3 of air (gigantic over-estimate), this is an absolutely tiny dose. The danger of someone panicking and accidentally overdosing on iodine, or suffering a heart attack/stroke from the increased stress following such a news announcement is almost certainly higher than the risk of someone getting cancer from this. I live in Hong Kong, where a fair number of people in finance moved from Tokyo following the Fukushima disaster out of radiation concerns. The natural background radiation levels in Hong Kong are higher in Hong Kong by more than the additional radiation in Tokyo due to Fukushima. You've done literally over a hundred things in the past 24 hours that pose much more danger to you than 1.5 uBq / m^3 of iodine decay.
- pbhjpbhj 10y ago
  >What should the news flash say? "Run from the nearest banana, person, airplane, or mountain." // The news story should say "slightly elevated background radiation levels detected across Europe" and have an spokesman from the nuclear industry and a doctor quoted saying it's about as harmful as walking past a banana. The fact we can't trust the media to report on something without inciting chaos is pretty awful. Your position appears to be: we can't let the press report on interesting environmental anomalies because it could cause a panic. Meh.

by bitL 10y ago

ge0rg 10y ago

Poland has the highest reading I wondered so as well, but the second-highest was from Spain, and I struggle to form a consistent picture from that.

ars 10y ago
You would need to merge the map with wind readings to try to figure out where it came from. But due to the fact that they have not done so I assume it's harder than it looks.
neom 10y ago
Spain might indicate that it happened in the water/sea off the coast?

jakub_g 10y ago

Regarding Chernobyl, they've just put in place a new sarcophagus in late 2016 after years of work. One would rather expect the radiation to get lower (but I am not an expert). Interesting anyway.

iSnow 10y ago

I think we can rule out low-yield nukes, those test would still create a noticeable signal. If I had to place a bet, then I'd put it on some low to medium accident at a nuclear power station in Russia that led to an emergency release of contaminated steam.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
matthewmcg 10y ago
Somewhat of a digression, but this very technical discussion about nuclear test monitoring by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization is really interesting: http://omegataupodcast.net/185-nuclear-test-monitoring-and-the-ctbt/ http://omegataupodcast.net/185-nuclear-test-monitoring-and-t...
dgut 10y ago
I don't think there's much point in guessing.

lostlogin 10y ago

Is there a non zero risk from that dose? I don't know how to apply that result to an individual, but it would seem a likely big extrapolation on the linear no threshhold model. When was the shield moved over Chernobyl, could that have stirred things up?

manarth 10y ago
When was the shield moved over Chernobyl? November 2016, although the side walls won't be up until August this year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_New_Safe_Confinement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_New_Safe_Confinement
- codecamper 10y ago
  How about a shield UNDER Chernobyl? Isn't the core still unstable & prone to heat-up / meltdown still?
  - manarth 10y ago
    How about a shield UNDER Chernobyl? They recognised the issue right away. Firstly, the bubbler pool was emptied of water (there was fear that if the core reached the water, it would cause a steam explosion). They started using liquid nitrogen to freeze the ground beneath the reactor, then scrapped that idea and filled the bubbler pool with concrete instead. They started digging a tunnel in May 1986 [1] (7 days after the accident), with a void below the reactor. They planned to fit a heat-exchanger into the void. It's not clear whether it was ever installed, but the consensus is that if it was installed, it was never used, and the core didn't reach the void [2]. [1] https://wiseinternational.org/chernobyl-disaster https://wiseinternational.org/chernobyl-disaster [2] http://knowledgeglue.com/amazing-un-seen-photos-chernobyl-disaster-page-4/ http://knowledgeglue.com/amazing-un-seen-photos-chernobyl-di...

patall 10y ago

Yeah, but taking too much iodine also results in a non-zero probability of side effects (I mean it is already not recommended to take pills for anyone over 45). If there is no real risk assumed, such news would only serve to spread panic and sensationalism. As long as it is not buried, I rather prefer it like this.

kkarp 10y ago

This is a map of air pollution in Europe. http://www.zzit.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Powietrze.jpg http://www.zzit.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Powietrze.jpg Poland is struggling right now because of huge smog. This makes me believe in this part of an article, which says that higher iodine detection might be caused by accumulation in smog.

chinathrow 10y ago
That sounds somewhat reasonable for the high readings in Poland, but why in Spain?
- pvaldes 10y ago
  Is even more interesting if we take in mind that just last week, Spanish government was talking about to extend the lifetime and reopen one of the oldest nuclear plants located not far away from where those high measures were taken.

KMag 10y ago

> I am also really disappointed this wasn't anywhere in the news, at least people could have taken some iodine. Edit: I know this is harsh, but the OP should realize their post is somewhere on the anti-vaxxer-Facebook-post-scale. It's somewhere around a millipost, but it registers on the scale. What should the news flash say? "Run from the nearest banana, person, airplane, or mountain." I'm really disappointed at your disappointment despite an absolute lack of critical thought on your part. What fraction of a banana would you have to eat in order to have the same effect? How many nights would you need to sleep next to someone instead of alone to get the same dose? How many minutes at 30,000 feet does that correspond to? Back-of-the envelope calculations: the half life is about 8 days, remembering your infinite series from high school, 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 ... = 1. So, the total dose over an infinite time frame is the same as 2 half lives at the initial level, so 16 days = 1,382,400 at 1.5e-6 Bq/m^3 works out to about 2 decays per cubic meter over an infinite time frame. Even assuming you absorbed any decay from 10 cubic meters of air around you, I'm too lazy to look up the difference in number of Joules between Iodine and Potassium decay and work out what fraction of a banana you'd have to eat to get the same dose, or how many days of sleeping next to someone that works out to, but even assuming at steady state you absorb every radioactive decay from 10 m^3 of air (gigantic over-estimate), this is an absolutely tiny dose. The danger of someone panicking and accidentally overdosing on iodine, or suffering a heart attack/stroke from the increased stress following such a news announcement is almost certainly higher than the risk of someone getting cancer from this. I live in Hong Kong, where a fair number of people in finance moved from Tokyo following the Fukushima disaster out of radiation concerns. The natural background radiation levels in Hong Kong are higher in Hong Kong by more than the additional radiation in Tokyo due to Fukushima. You've done literally over a hundred things in the past 24 hours that pose much more danger to you than 1.5 uBq / m^3 of iodine decay.

pbhjpbhj 10y ago
>What should the news flash say? "Run from the nearest banana, person, airplane, or mountain." // The news story should say "slightly elevated background radiation levels detected across Europe" and have an spokesman from the nuclear industry and a doctor quoted saying it's about as harmful as walking past a banana. The fact we can't trust the media to report on something without inciting chaos is pretty awful. Your position appears to be: we can't let the press report on interesting environmental anomalies because it could cause a panic. Meh.