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> There is no way SV would have grown to what it is now without foreign talent. So the shortage has been real for the last 30+ years. Not sure why this point is
by ones_and_zeros 10y ago
> There is no way SV would have grown to what it is now without foreign talent. So the shortage has been real for the last 30+ years. Not sure why this point is still controversial.
Is this a fact or a feeling? Economics allows us to directly measure these things and the price of labor hasn't gone up in the last 30 years at rates indicating a shortage with executive pay and corporate profits at all time highs.
> Then the problem might be with how long the gov takes to process these things, and not with the H1B visas?
I think his point was the visa system is designed to take advantage of the inefficiencies in the bureaucracy to the benefit of the employer.
> Younger people are more willing to move to another country. Also, many students apply for an H1b after their F1 runs out, so of course you get younger people.
If the H1B visa didn't exist there wouldn't be as many foreign students.
You should read his blog, he makes repeated coherent arguments against the H1B visa system and its detrimental effects on the employment outlook for older citizens. He is a CS professor at a respected US university and has an interesting perspective.
- yummyfajitas 10y agoEconomics allows us to directly measure these things and the price of labor hasn't gone up in the last 30 years... Real compensation per hour (for workers as a whole) has gone up 40% since 1987. This number is adjusted for inflation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB Pay in software has been rising more rapidly than pay for the country as a whole. Is this even remotely in doubt? http://insights.dice.com/2013/01/22/tech-professionals-enjoy-biggest-raise-in-a-decade/ http://insights.dice.com/2013/01/22/tech-professionals-enjoy...
- anjc 10y agoThere are studies performed on this stuff by actual economists out there, to save you using self-reporting surveys from online recruitment companies. http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-i... http://www.epi.org/publication/pm195-stem-labor-shortages-microsoft-report-distorts/ http://www.epi.org/publication/pm195-stem-labor-shortages-mi... >The average hourly wage for college-educated workers in computer and math occupations rose 5.3 percent over 11 years, from $37.27 in 2000 to $39.24 in 2011 (in 2012 dollars), which translates to an average wage increase of less than half a percent per year. If a labor shortage existed in these occupations, one would expect wages to rise sharply as employers try to lure scarce workers to their firms.
- arjie 10y ago2000? At the peak of the dot-com boom?
- crusso 10y agoYeah, that's the part that had me scratching my head. Any study that makes no attempt to smooth out dramatic outlier time periods is highly suspect.
- yummyfajitas 10y agoIf your study is claiming that software engineer compensation rose no more rapidly than the population at as a whole (they also saw a 5% increase), then something is deeply wrong with your study. Note that "Computer and math occupations" is a broad catch-all term which includes all sorts of professions, such as: Computer User Support Specialist: Provide technical assistance to computer users. Answer questions or resolve computer problems for clients in person, or via telephone or electronically. May provide assistance concerning the use of computer hardware and software, including printing, installation, word processing, electronic mail, and operating systems. Excludes "Network and Computer Systems Administrators" (15-1142). https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes150000.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes150000.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151151.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151151.htm No one claimed that the guy who fixes your printer or helps you change the font in word experienced large pay increases.
- Apocryphon 10y agoFor American workers as a whole, the average hourly wage has about the same purchasing power as it did in 1979. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor...
- yummyfajitas 10y agoCongrats - you've discovered that compensation has shifted from taxable wages to untaxed benefits. If you want to solve this then ban employer sponsored health care, matched 401k contributions, and all that.
- Apocryphon 10y agoThe WWII-era holdover of making American employers be responsible for their employee healthcare is definitely something that should be gradually reformed out of existence. It used to be an incentive, not a necessity. And as for 401(k)s, well that's another can of worms that needs to be dealt with: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13304027 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13304027
- mcguire 10y agoSo, 1.1% annualized? Do you have numbers for productivity?
- ska 10y agoIt's entirely possible (I am not claiming either way) that both are true: that the H1B system has benefited employers by allowing lower wages and technology growth has increased by access to a broader talent pool than was available in the US alone. There are very few clean economic metrics - in this case you can't directly measure the effect because you don't have data from an equivalent system without the effect of H1b wages in it. So in the end, as with most economic arguments, it is more art than science.