8 ms·

New wheat disease threatens Europe’s crops

126 points by HarryHirsch 10y ago

halotrope 10y ago
Hopefully this is not the beginning of another science-fiction plot turning reality. From what I can tell we are quite a few years away from the technology of 'Interstellar'
- syntheticnature 10y ago
  Given that plague's... unusual biochemistry (lives off Nitrogen instead of Oxygen how?) I'm less worried about that than us merely running 5 years behind on Car Wars' timeline: https://sites.google.com/site/arpscarwars/Home/car-wars-time-line https://sites.google.com/site/arpscarwars/Home/car-wars-time...
  - pizza 10y ago
    related is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication although I think it makes some sense to see the blight as representative of a reversal of humanity's changing relationship to nitrogen in the 20th century via the Haber process - bomb-enabling and fertilizer-propagation coming full-circle as being used by a plague that takes human life via nitrogen again.
- rubber_duck 10y ago
  If we had interstellar level of tech we could synthesize aminos, carbs and fats more efficiently than we can with agriculture. We could probably do it right now with processing simple organisms like algae or what not if push came to shove - with enough R&D $ spent, but all forms of agriculture get subsidized enough that it doesn't even let alternative competition come up. I'm not saying agricultural disasters can't have very negative impacts on society (especially less developed countries that have to bid for same food as developed countries on global market) but such sci-fi plots are rather unconvincing.
  - RobertoG 10y ago
    To be fair to the screenwriters: If I don't remember wrong, in Interstellar, they don't have interstellar level of technology, they just find the tech.
- krona 10y ago
  It's a similar situation with the Xylella fastidiosa bacterium. Even if the technology did exist, it would be banned in ~50% of the EU under GMO and 'new food' legislation.
  - tornadoboy55 10y ago
    Better than the US standard of letting untested genes or chemicals loose on the population and testing/regulating only when a problem starts popping up, no?
    - krona 10y ago
      It depends. For instance, the precautionary principle in the EU has, in the case of declining bee populations, manifested itself in banning things even when the scientific studies have shown that the pesticides in question are almost certainly not the problem. How many scientific studies does it take to convince a politician?
      - whyenot 10y ago
        When the crop is wind pollinated as is the case with wheat and other grasses, AND when there are closely related weeds and other plants nearby, a little caution seems like a good thing. As far as neonicotinamides, they are a very useful group of pesticides. Safe for applicators, effective, long lasting. I use them quite often to control pests in the university greenhouses I manage. I think the jury is still out on their role in bee colony collapses. Even if they are not implicated, there is a lot of evidence that they do kill insect pollinators
      - RobertoG 10y ago
        Another, more cynic, way to see it is, you can choose one of two possibilities: -You can have politicians that try to appeal ill-informed general population motivated by fear. We would call this, the European way. -You can have politicians that try to appeal well informed lobbyist motivated by greed. We will call this the American Way. Or, the even more cynical, and probably more realistic option, you can have both: politicians that try to eat their cake and have it too.
- intrasight 10y ago
  A good sci-fi adaptation of this is T"he Windup Girl" by Paolo Bacigalupi
briantakita 10y ago
Another reason to use polycultures & a more ecosystemic approach (restoration agriculture) to growing food, custom to each region. There's disease resistance by design & the ecosystem is improved. Small scale farming also focuses the population on improving the biosphere, whereas the technosphere has dominated our cultural attention.
dmichulke 10y ago
Two related thoughts: - A potential European famine won't happen because the lacking quantities of food will be imported, to the detriment of all with less purchasing power and no sufficient own production (read Africa) - Is there some principle similar to "financial diversification" applied in Agriculture to obtain a Portfolio with low risk? I could imagine to use some "genome distance" instead of asset correlation.
- ratacat 10y ago
  It's called genetic diversity. Look at traditional methods of potatoe farming in Peru and the Andes. They breed thousands of varieties. Look up some pictures, it's crazy. Our modern method of high input, high petroleum leveraged mono cropping is highly susceptible to blight.
  - shawn-butler 10y ago
    First, mono-cropping generally refers to single crop, year-on-year. It does not mean single, variety/hybrid as you suggest. Second, your assertion regarding agriculture in the US just doesn't really match reality. USDA data[0] in 2014 indicated that only 16 percent of corn, 14 percent of spring wheat and 6 percent of soybean acreage is continuously planted with one crop over a three-year period. More recent data is available feel free to validate it for yourself. Duo-cropping or a 3-crop rotation is the norm. [0]: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-practices-management/crop-livestock-practices/soil-tillage-and-crop-rotation.aspx#.U1_tG_ldWSo https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-practices-management/cr...
    - GFK_of_xmaspast 10y ago
      Isn't that consistent with a system of 'corn A / corn A / soybean B / repeat'?
    - jacobolus 10y ago
      You’re missing the point. Nearly all the corn grown and sold in the USA is a few varieties, and one goal of industrial agriculture is perfect uniformity of output. If you go look at Mexican peasant farms from 50+ years ago (and going back millennia), you’ll see corn of every conceivable size and color, differing broadly from region to region, and locally matched to each particular micro-climate. Same story for all crops grown traditionally in their regions of origin, which usually have thousands of varieties with diverse traits. Whether they are planted continuously, or rotated with other crops, etc., doesn’t change the fundamental lack of genetic diversity in our modern industrial agriculture system.
david-given 10y ago
If ever you feel that your day is too cheerful, go read John Christopher's The Death Of Grass; it'll sort you right out. http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/941731.The_Death_of_Grass http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/941731.The_Death_of_Grass In it, a rice virus mutates and wipes out all grass crops in Asia and Europe --- rice, wheat, barley, oats, you name it. tl:dr: it doesn't go well.
- orf 10y ago
  Really really great book, not particularly long but very engrossing (and pretty depressing!)
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- cpeterso 10y ago
  A film was made of the book in 1970: No Blade of Grass. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066154/ http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066154/
- TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
  + 1 - excellent, but incredibly depressing book, from a writer who's often overlooked.
- lightsighter 10y ago
  To be fair, as someone with Celiac disease, living in that world might be a little easier for me than living in present day America (minus the obvious implications for the end of society as we know it).
  - cpursley 10y ago
    Doubtful, because the demand for calories would shift to other sources (the sources you currently consume) and increase the price substantially. Also, I've found that the United States is one of the best places at accommodating alternative diets.
- 10y ago
stevefeinstein 10y ago
While I'm sure this is was too simplistic. Seems like it they can produce less wheat, then maybe people will eat less wheat, and possibly the reduced carbs will make them healthier. Win/win!
GFK_of_xmaspast 10y ago
This isn't really a "new" disease, but a new variety of Puccinia graminis. One thing about P.graminis that's useful for us is that it overwinters on barberry, where it does the sexual stage of its lifecycle, so if you can get rid of the barberry you can slow down the rust's evolution significantly. Here's a page about the eradication efforts in 20th century US: https://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Barberry.aspx https://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Bar...

126 points by HarryHirsch 10y ago

Hopefully this is not the beginning of another science-fiction plot turning reality. From what I can tell we are quite a few years away from the technology of 'Interstellar'

syntheticnature 10y ago
Given that plague's... unusual biochemistry (lives off Nitrogen instead of Oxygen how?) I'm less worried about that than us merely running 5 years behind on Car Wars' timeline: https://sites.google.com/site/arpscarwars/Home/car-wars-time-line https://sites.google.com/site/arpscarwars/Home/car-wars-time...
- pizza 10y ago
  related is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication although I think it makes some sense to see the blight as representative of a reversal of humanity's changing relationship to nitrogen in the 20th century via the Haber process - bomb-enabling and fertilizer-propagation coming full-circle as being used by a plague that takes human life via nitrogen again.
rubber_duck 10y ago
If we had interstellar level of tech we could synthesize aminos, carbs and fats more efficiently than we can with agriculture. We could probably do it right now with processing simple organisms like algae or what not if push came to shove - with enough R&D $ spent, but all forms of agriculture get subsidized enough that it doesn't even let alternative competition come up. I'm not saying agricultural disasters can't have very negative impacts on society (especially less developed countries that have to bid for same food as developed countries on global market) but such sci-fi plots are rather unconvincing.
- RobertoG 10y ago
  To be fair to the screenwriters: If I don't remember wrong, in Interstellar, they don't have interstellar level of technology, they just find the tech.
krona 10y ago
It's a similar situation with the Xylella fastidiosa bacterium. Even if the technology did exist, it would be banned in ~50% of the EU under GMO and 'new food' legislation.
- tornadoboy55 10y ago
  Better than the US standard of letting untested genes or chemicals loose on the population and testing/regulating only when a problem starts popping up, no?
  - krona 10y ago
    It depends. For instance, the precautionary principle in the EU has, in the case of declining bee populations, manifested itself in banning things even when the scientific studies have shown that the pesticides in question are almost certainly not the problem. How many scientific studies does it take to convince a politician?
    - whyenot 10y ago
      When the crop is wind pollinated as is the case with wheat and other grasses, AND when there are closely related weeds and other plants nearby, a little caution seems like a good thing. As far as neonicotinamides, they are a very useful group of pesticides. Safe for applicators, effective, long lasting. I use them quite often to control pests in the university greenhouses I manage. I think the jury is still out on their role in bee colony collapses. Even if they are not implicated, there is a lot of evidence that they do kill insect pollinators
    - RobertoG 10y ago
      Another, more cynic, way to see it is, you can choose one of two possibilities: -You can have politicians that try to appeal ill-informed general population motivated by fear. We would call this, the European way. -You can have politicians that try to appeal well informed lobbyist motivated by greed. We will call this the American Way. Or, the even more cynical, and probably more realistic option, you can have both: politicians that try to eat their cake and have it too.
intrasight 10y ago
A good sci-fi adaptation of this is T"he Windup Girl" by Paolo Bacigalupi

briantakita 10y ago

Another reason to use polycultures & a more ecosystemic approach (restoration agriculture) to growing food, custom to each region. There's disease resistance by design & the ecosystem is improved. Small scale farming also focuses the population on improving the biosphere, whereas the technosphere has dominated our cultural attention.

dmichulke 10y ago

Two related thoughts: - A potential European famine won't happen because the lacking quantities of food will be imported, to the detriment of all with less purchasing power and no sufficient own production (read Africa) - Is there some principle similar to "financial diversification" applied in Agriculture to obtain a Portfolio with low risk? I could imagine to use some "genome distance" instead of asset correlation.

ratacat 10y ago
It's called genetic diversity. Look at traditional methods of potatoe farming in Peru and the Andes. They breed thousands of varieties. Look up some pictures, it's crazy. Our modern method of high input, high petroleum leveraged mono cropping is highly susceptible to blight.
- shawn-butler 10y ago
  First, mono-cropping generally refers to single crop, year-on-year. It does not mean single, variety/hybrid as you suggest. Second, your assertion regarding agriculture in the US just doesn't really match reality. USDA data[0] in 2014 indicated that only 16 percent of corn, 14 percent of spring wheat and 6 percent of soybean acreage is continuously planted with one crop over a three-year period. More recent data is available feel free to validate it for yourself. Duo-cropping or a 3-crop rotation is the norm. [0]: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-practices-management/crop-livestock-practices/soil-tillage-and-crop-rotation.aspx#.U1_tG_ldWSo https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-practices-management/cr...
  - GFK_of_xmaspast 10y ago
    Isn't that consistent with a system of 'corn A / corn A / soybean B / repeat'?
  - jacobolus 10y ago
    You’re missing the point. Nearly all the corn grown and sold in the USA is a few varieties, and one goal of industrial agriculture is perfect uniformity of output. If you go look at Mexican peasant farms from 50+ years ago (and going back millennia), you’ll see corn of every conceivable size and color, differing broadly from region to region, and locally matched to each particular micro-climate. Same story for all crops grown traditionally in their regions of origin, which usually have thousands of varieties with diverse traits. Whether they are planted continuously, or rotated with other crops, etc., doesn’t change the fundamental lack of genetic diversity in our modern industrial agriculture system.

david-given 10y ago

If ever you feel that your day is too cheerful, go read John Christopher's The Death Of Grass; it'll sort you right out. http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/941731.The_Death_of_Grass http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/941731.The_Death_of_Grass In it, a rice virus mutates and wipes out all grass crops in Asia and Europe --- rice, wheat, barley, oats, you name it. tl:dr: it doesn't go well.

orf 10y ago
Really really great book, not particularly long but very engrossing (and pretty depressing!)
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
cpeterso 10y ago
A film was made of the book in 1970: No Blade of Grass. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066154/ http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066154/
TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
+ 1 - excellent, but incredibly depressing book, from a writer who's often overlooked.
lightsighter 10y ago
To be fair, as someone with Celiac disease, living in that world might be a little easier for me than living in present day America (minus the obvious implications for the end of society as we know it).
- cpursley 10y ago
  Doubtful, because the demand for calories would shift to other sources (the sources you currently consume) and increase the price substantially. Also, I've found that the United States is one of the best places at accommodating alternative diets.
10y ago

stevefeinstein 10y ago

While I'm sure this is was too simplistic. Seems like it they can produce less wheat, then maybe people will eat less wheat, and possibly the reduced carbs will make them healthier. Win/win!

GFK_of_xmaspast 10y ago

This isn't really a "new" disease, but a new variety of Puccinia graminis. One thing about P.graminis that's useful for us is that it overwinters on barberry, where it does the sexual stage of its lifecycle, so if you can get rid of the barberry you can slow down the rust's evolution significantly. Here's a page about the eradication efforts in 20th century US: https://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Barberry.aspx https://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Bar...