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A nice thing about this trend is that it means if you buy an EV today and replace the battery in, say, five years, the new battery will probably cost much less

A nice thing about this trend is that it means if you buy an EV today and replace the battery in, say, five years, the new battery will probably cost much less and also have much greater range. So you will have a car that gets better as it gets older, at least in some important ways.

mtgx 10y ago
Unless, of course, the car manufacturers get the bright idea to make EV batteries "irreplaceable", too - you know, for "better efficiency" or to make the cars "leaner" or whatever their excuse would be.
- wfunction 10y ago
  Or if they do the opposite (planned obsolescence).
- Kluny 10y ago
  They'll probably remove the headphone ports while they're at it.
- c22 10y ago
  Imagine thinner cars!
- Dylan16807 10y ago
  When a battery "can't" be replaced on a consumer device, that generally just means you need a soldering iron or to pry it open. Many car repairs are already vastly more difficult than that, so those barriers would be negligible. It's hard to think of an equivalent.
- mikeash 10y ago
  I can't imagine people would put up with that. People buy new smartphones every few years, but they expect their cars to last decades. The average age of cars on American roads is 11.5 years. If you try to convince people to accept a sharp reduction in car lifetime, it had better come with a sharp reduction in price, or people won't buy it.
guelo 10y ago
In the full McKinsey report they forecast less of a drop going forward, 16% over the next 3 years, 55% drop over the next 13 years. So 4-5% per year. That is a lot less then the depreciation of a new car. It's probably not going to be worth it to replace the battery.
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 10y ago
  The depreciation of a new car is, in large part, based on powertrain wear. If relatively inexpensive battery replacements/upgrades are available, that changes the value of a used car. It could reduce depreciation substantially. I would be surprised if a well-maintained, crash-free electric vehicle in a climate without road salt wouldn't be worth battery replacement. It's also not the correct economic consideration; you have to compare the value of a used EV vs. that same vehicle with a battery upgrade. If that value is greater than the cost of the battery, that's all you need. High depreciation of new cars makes the upgrade more attractive, actually, if you're considering resale value; upgrading an old car would allow you to avoid the 'off the lot' hit.
  - leoedin 10y ago
    Completely anecdotally, almost all of my ongoing car maintenance costs for a 18 year old car I recently sold have been unrelated to the power train. Wheel bearings, steering bushings, brakes. This is probably in part due to the UK annual inspection which checks all these things and forces you to fix them. I agree though that pretty much all the catastrophic scrap-the-car failures are power train related. A lot of modern engines are really, really reliable though, so will happily go for hundreds of thousands of miles without issue.
ProfessorLayton 10y ago
Thats an interesting point, however that may not be how it actually plays out, at least from my somewhat relevant experience. I had the misfortune of having my Honda hybrid's battery die, and if it weren't for CARB's extended emissions warranty for all HV car batteries, I would have been SOL paying 3-4K (or 2-3K for a refurb) for a tiny ~1kWh battery. The new battery in my hybrid didn't go down in price significantly despite ~9 years of battery advancement, nor is it more powerful than the one it replaced. I understand I'm comparing NiMH to Li-ion, but perhaps 5-10 years from now Li-ion will be superseded by a another chemistry, leaving today's electric car buyers with a similar experience.
- mimg 10y ago
  I would hope this is just poor execution on the manufacturers behalf and will eventually realize that making the battery an upgradable module would be a great selling point. However, based on experience I don’t see manufactures wanting to sell better batteries when they can make it exclusive to newer models. I think after the proliferation of EV’s we will see a lot of aftermarket batteries with significantly better specs.
  - mehwoot 10y ago
    I would hope this is just poor execution on the manufacturers behalf and will eventually realize that making the battery an upgradable module When does it ever work like this in the real world though? Planned obsolesce and all that. Even in this industry, replacement car parts cost far above the component price when the car was new.
    - petra 10y ago
      Yes, it's against the interests of car manufacturers to do so. But i could see china encourage that open battery standard(among chinese companies only, behind closed doors) as a way to get market share of both cars and batteries.
    - nickjarboe 10y ago
      Since Musk is not making electric cars just for the profits, maybe Tesla will produce replacement batteries with better specs at lower cost. Tesla cars are designed to have battery packs that can be easily replaced contra Apples recent devices. Tesla car batteries will be the first ones, at volume, that people with electric cars will want to replace. If Tesla sets the trend other car manufactures will be at a disadvantage if they don't follow.
PKop 10y ago
As an aside (and not to hijack the thread..) but keep this in mind when some economists argue that inflation is good. It is technological improvement leading to falling prices that is beneficial to society and to an economy.
- icebraining 10y ago
  Falling prices is deflation, not inflation.
  - PKop 10y ago
    That was my point. That deflation is good not inflation.
    - srssays 10y ago
      I'm sorry that you are being downvoted, it seems nobody on HN has any reading comprehension.
audunw 10y ago
I tried to research this a bit. There have been a few models which have gotten an upgraded battery, so we should start seeing these options. The new Nissan Leaf has a larger battery pack, but it's not backward compatible. https://transportevolved.com/2015/09/11/confirmed-30-kwh-nissan-leaf-battery-packs-incompatible-with-older-nissan-leafs/ https://transportevolved.com/2015/09/11/confirmed-30-kwh-nis... But they do have a batter replacement option which has better thermal management. http://insideevs.com/breaking-nissan-prices-leaf-battery-replacement-5499-new-packs-heat-durable/ http://insideevs.com/breaking-nissan-prices-leaf-battery-rep... I wasn't able to find out anything about the Renault Zoe, or Kia Soul (new model isn't out yet though). But our dealership did tell us that he expects there to be battery upgrades available for the Kia Soul, and this also seems to reflect what others on the forums have heard. But he did say it might be 3rd party options. Supposedly you can upgrade individual cells. So the picture isn't clear yet. But I think once the market reaches a certain size, there will at least be 3rd party options.

mtgx 10y ago

Unless, of course, the car manufacturers get the bright idea to make EV batteries "irreplaceable", too - you know, for "better efficiency" or to make the cars "leaner" or whatever their excuse would be.

wfunction 10y ago
Or if they do the opposite (planned obsolescence).
Kluny 10y ago
They'll probably remove the headphone ports while they're at it.
c22 10y ago
Imagine thinner cars!
Dylan16807 10y ago
When a battery "can't" be replaced on a consumer device, that generally just means you need a soldering iron or to pry it open. Many car repairs are already vastly more difficult than that, so those barriers would be negligible. It's hard to think of an equivalent.
mikeash 10y ago
I can't imagine people would put up with that. People buy new smartphones every few years, but they expect their cars to last decades. The average age of cars on American roads is 11.5 years. If you try to convince people to accept a sharp reduction in car lifetime, it had better come with a sharp reduction in price, or people won't buy it.

guelo 10y ago

In the full McKinsey report they forecast less of a drop going forward, 16% over the next 3 years, 55% drop over the next 13 years. So 4-5% per year. That is a lot less then the depreciation of a new car. It's probably not going to be worth it to replace the battery.

Obi_Juan_Kenobi 10y ago
The depreciation of a new car is, in large part, based on powertrain wear. If relatively inexpensive battery replacements/upgrades are available, that changes the value of a used car. It could reduce depreciation substantially. I would be surprised if a well-maintained, crash-free electric vehicle in a climate without road salt wouldn't be worth battery replacement. It's also not the correct economic consideration; you have to compare the value of a used EV vs. that same vehicle with a battery upgrade. If that value is greater than the cost of the battery, that's all you need. High depreciation of new cars makes the upgrade more attractive, actually, if you're considering resale value; upgrading an old car would allow you to avoid the 'off the lot' hit.
- leoedin 10y ago
  Completely anecdotally, almost all of my ongoing car maintenance costs for a 18 year old car I recently sold have been unrelated to the power train. Wheel bearings, steering bushings, brakes. This is probably in part due to the UK annual inspection which checks all these things and forces you to fix them. I agree though that pretty much all the catastrophic scrap-the-car failures are power train related. A lot of modern engines are really, really reliable though, so will happily go for hundreds of thousands of miles without issue.

ProfessorLayton 10y ago

Thats an interesting point, however that may not be how it actually plays out, at least from my somewhat relevant experience. I had the misfortune of having my Honda hybrid's battery die, and if it weren't for CARB's extended emissions warranty for all HV car batteries, I would have been SOL paying 3-4K (or 2-3K for a refurb) for a tiny ~1kWh battery. The new battery in my hybrid didn't go down in price significantly despite ~9 years of battery advancement, nor is it more powerful than the one it replaced. I understand I'm comparing NiMH to Li-ion, but perhaps 5-10 years from now Li-ion will be superseded by a another chemistry, leaving today's electric car buyers with a similar experience.

mimg 10y ago
I would hope this is just poor execution on the manufacturers behalf and will eventually realize that making the battery an upgradable module would be a great selling point. However, based on experience I don’t see manufactures wanting to sell better batteries when they can make it exclusive to newer models. I think after the proliferation of EV’s we will see a lot of aftermarket batteries with significantly better specs.
- mehwoot 10y ago
  I would hope this is just poor execution on the manufacturers behalf and will eventually realize that making the battery an upgradable module When does it ever work like this in the real world though? Planned obsolesce and all that. Even in this industry, replacement car parts cost far above the component price when the car was new.
  - petra 10y ago
    Yes, it's against the interests of car manufacturers to do so. But i could see china encourage that open battery standard(among chinese companies only, behind closed doors) as a way to get market share of both cars and batteries.
  - nickjarboe 10y ago
    Since Musk is not making electric cars just for the profits, maybe Tesla will produce replacement batteries with better specs at lower cost. Tesla cars are designed to have battery packs that can be easily replaced contra Apples recent devices. Tesla car batteries will be the first ones, at volume, that people with electric cars will want to replace. If Tesla sets the trend other car manufactures will be at a disadvantage if they don't follow.

PKop 10y ago

As an aside (and not to hijack the thread..) but keep this in mind when some economists argue that inflation is good. It is technological improvement leading to falling prices that is beneficial to society and to an economy.

icebraining 10y ago
Falling prices is deflation, not inflation.
- PKop 10y ago
  That was my point. That deflation is good not inflation.
  - srssays 10y ago
    I'm sorry that you are being downvoted, it seems nobody on HN has any reading comprehension.

audunw 10y ago

I tried to research this a bit. There have been a few models which have gotten an upgraded battery, so we should start seeing these options. The new Nissan Leaf has a larger battery pack, but it's not backward compatible. https://transportevolved.com/2015/09/11/confirmed-30-kwh-nissan-leaf-battery-packs-incompatible-with-older-nissan-leafs/ https://transportevolved.com/2015/09/11/confirmed-30-kwh-nis... But they do have a batter replacement option which has better thermal management. http://insideevs.com/breaking-nissan-prices-leaf-battery-replacement-5499-new-packs-heat-durable/ http://insideevs.com/breaking-nissan-prices-leaf-battery-rep... I wasn't able to find out anything about the Renault Zoe, or Kia Soul (new model isn't out yet though). But our dealership did tell us that he expects there to be battery upgrades available for the Kia Soul, and this also seems to reflect what others on the forums have heard. But he did say it might be 3rd party options. Supposedly you can upgrade individual cells. So the picture isn't clear yet. But I think once the market reaches a certain size, there will at least be 3rd party options.