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Crime in many parts of America is higher than it was in medieval and middle ages in Europe, judged by intentional homicide rates. Also, crime approximated by in

Crime in many parts of America is higher than it was in medieval and middle ages in Europe, judged by intentional homicide rates. Also, crime approximated by intentional murder rate, outside of periods of war, is historically higher now than in history. source: https://ourworldindata.org/homicides/#germany https://ourworldindata.org/homicides/#germany

kasey_junk 10y ago
Ummm. Your citation has the exact opposite conclusion to what you say. So much so that I had to read it 3 times to make sure I wasn't missing anything. What precisely do you mean?
- wallace_f 10y ago
  What are you looking at? According to Wikipedia(1), it is 3.9/100,000 in the USA, and 16 in the Americas. From the source(2), it was less than 1 in the USA by 1800. There also variable crime by region in America. Baltimore, St Louis, Detroit and New Orleans have homicide rates around 50. That's higher than any country in Africa or the Middle East. 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention... 2 - https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-northeastern-united-states-1636-1900-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homici... 3 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate
  - kasey_junk 10y ago
    I mean, I guess maybe I'm taking quotes like "The homicide rate in the US has fallen dramatically over the past few centuries." out of context?
    - wallace_f 10y ago
      If you look at the data sources they linked to, they don't support that -- although the data source linked immediately after that quote is from the 1600s - 1800s where the rate did fall dramatically, so maybe that was what was the intended meaning? I don't know what the author's intention is, but the actual data that is not supportive of that, and you can look at it. Edit: to below: go click on the links to the datasets I provided you. Look at the datasets. Do you see historical murder rate in the USA around 1 - 5 in the USA, and that it is now over 50 in some parts. >nor the crime rate in the USA historically compared to now My thesis was that some parts of the USA have higher crime rates than historical (they do). That was my thesis. An additional thesis is also true: At some points in history the historical murder rate in the USA was lower than it is today. You need to link to actual data. The data I linked to supports my thesis. Click on this link and look for yourself. I honestly don't know what your problem is. Are you not clicking the links or being intentionally difficult or something?: https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-northeastern-united-states-1636-1900-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homici...
      - kasey_junk 10y ago
        I'm sorry, I don't see either of your thesis' supported by your citation. Neither the crime rate in the USA compared to medieval European rates, nor the crime rate in the USA historically compared to now, is worse. Are we just reading the same data completely differently?
        wallace_f 10y ago
        What? Go click on the links to the datasets I provided you. Look at the datasets. Notice that you see historical murder rate in the USA around 1 - 5 in the USA, and that it is now over 50 in some parts. >nor the crime rate in the USA historically compared to now My thesis was that some parts of the USA have higher crime rates than historical (they do). That was my thesis. An additional thesis is also true: At some points in history the historical murder rate in the USA was lower than it is today. You need to link to actual data. The data I linked to supports my thesis. Click on this link and look for yourself. I honestly don't know what your problem is. Are you not clicking the links or being intentionally difficult or something? https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-northeastern-united-states-1636-1900-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homici...
_yvjs 10y ago
I've heard that there was a sharp increase from the early 20th century to the 70s-80s, then a small decline since then (maybe due to deleading gasoline among other things), and it seems to have happened in other countries too http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olympic-britain/crime-and-defence/crimes-of-the-century/ http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym.... It's a bit hard to judge since there are only a few crimes where measurement has been consistent and good, e.g., homicide and violent crime. And there you have to take into account the decline in lethality due to better medical care: https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/754446756805509120 https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/754446756805509120 https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/756512858331082752 https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/756512858331082752. I'd like to see the trend in assaults, which would be most relevant to free-range parenting, but haven't been able to find it anywhere.
- wallace_f 10y ago
  >I've heard that there was a sharp increase from the early 20th century to the 70s-80s, then a small decline since then (maybe due to deleading gasoline among other things), and it seems to have happened in other countries too http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym... http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym.... That's true. However there are estimates that historically, during periods in peace and without severe economic hardship, the murder rates had settled at very low numbers in America (lower than today). In the data I linked it is 1/100,000 in 1800 which is lower than around 4 today, and around 50 in several cities. However, there are problems with the datasets as you mentioned, but some of those problems would make the historical homicide rate even lower than higher (i.e. better survival rate from medical care).

kasey_junk 10y ago

Ummm. Your citation has the exact opposite conclusion to what you say. So much so that I had to read it 3 times to make sure I wasn't missing anything. What precisely do you mean?

wallace_f 10y ago
What are you looking at? According to Wikipedia(1), it is 3.9/100,000 in the USA, and 16 in the Americas. From the source(2), it was less than 1 in the USA by 1800. There also variable crime by region in America. Baltimore, St Louis, Detroit and New Orleans have homicide rates around 50. That's higher than any country in Africa or the Middle East. 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention... 2 - https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-northeastern-united-states-1636-1900-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homici... 3 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate
- kasey_junk 10y ago
  I mean, I guess maybe I'm taking quotes like "The homicide rate in the US has fallen dramatically over the past few centuries." out of context?
  - wallace_f 10y ago
    If you look at the data sources they linked to, they don't support that -- although the data source linked immediately after that quote is from the 1600s - 1800s where the rate did fall dramatically, so maybe that was what was the intended meaning? I don't know what the author's intention is, but the actual data that is not supportive of that, and you can look at it. Edit: to below: go click on the links to the datasets I provided you. Look at the datasets. Do you see historical murder rate in the USA around 1 - 5 in the USA, and that it is now over 50 in some parts. >nor the crime rate in the USA historically compared to now My thesis was that some parts of the USA have higher crime rates than historical (they do). That was my thesis. An additional thesis is also true: At some points in history the historical murder rate in the USA was lower than it is today. You need to link to actual data. The data I linked to supports my thesis. Click on this link and look for yourself. I honestly don't know what your problem is. Are you not clicking the links or being intentionally difficult or something?: https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-northeastern-united-states-1636-1900-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homici...
    - kasey_junk 10y ago
      I'm sorry, I don't see either of your thesis' supported by your citation. Neither the crime rate in the USA compared to medieval European rates, nor the crime rate in the USA historically compared to now, is worse. Are we just reading the same data completely differently?
      - wallace_f 10y ago
        What? Go click on the links to the datasets I provided you. Look at the datasets. Notice that you see historical murder rate in the USA around 1 - 5 in the USA, and that it is now over 50 in some parts. >nor the crime rate in the USA historically compared to now My thesis was that some parts of the USA have higher crime rates than historical (they do). That was my thesis. An additional thesis is also true: At some points in history the historical murder rate in the USA was lower than it is today. You need to link to actual data. The data I linked to supports my thesis. Click on this link and look for yourself. I honestly don't know what your problem is. Are you not clicking the links or being intentionally difficult or something? https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-northeastern-united-states-1636-1900-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homici...

_yvjs 10y ago

I've heard that there was a sharp increase from the early 20th century to the 70s-80s, then a small decline since then (maybe due to deleading gasoline among other things), and it seems to have happened in other countries too http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olympic-britain/crime-and-defence/crimes-of-the-century/ http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym.... It's a bit hard to judge since there are only a few crimes where measurement has been consistent and good, e.g., homicide and violent crime. And there you have to take into account the decline in lethality due to better medical care: https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/754446756805509120 https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/754446756805509120 https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/756512858331082752 https://twitter.com/RAVerBruggen/status/756512858331082752. I'd like to see the trend in assaults, which would be most relevant to free-range parenting, but haven't been able to find it anywhere.

wallace_f 10y ago
>I've heard that there was a sharp increase from the early 20th century to the 70s-80s, then a small decline since then (maybe due to deleading gasoline among other things), and it seems to have happened in other countries too http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym... http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym.... That's true. However there are estimates that historically, during periods in peace and without severe economic hardship, the murder rates had settled at very low numbers in America (lower than today). In the data I linked it is 1/100,000 in 1800 which is lower than around 4 today, and around 50 in several cities. However, there are problems with the datasets as you mentioned, but some of those problems would make the historical homicide rate even lower than higher (i.e. better survival rate from medical care).