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There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't understand how these quotes line up: "...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fa
by matt2000 10y ago
There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't understand how these quotes line up:
"...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fast — by almost half just since 2014."
"But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs of new projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a wider scale in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another decade."
The prices for the batteries dropped by half in 2 years, but it will take a decade for them to drop by the same amount again? What am I missing here?
Also the chart seems to indicate the cost was $273/kWh to build a plant in 2016, but then they say "While Tesla declined to provide its pricing data, the similarly sized Altagas project was expected to cost at least $40 million, or $500 per kilowatt hour." I guess the costs unrelated to the battery cells themselves added another ~$230/kWh in costs?
- FooBarWidget 10y agoIt says the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries. It could be that the cost of batteries is only a small amount of the overall cost. That is what you see with solar, most of the cost comes from installation.
- stcredzero 10y agothe cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries Manufacture larger self-contained units the size of a standard shipping container?
- briffle 10y agothat would be awesome, but would be one heavy shipping container..
- tw04 10y agoWell, given we ship around semi-trucks full (ok not completely full due to the exact weight you describe) of lead-acid car batteries for recycling, it wouldn't be unthinkable. Li-on, I believe, is roughly 200% lighter for the same battery. IE: http://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-ion-vs-lead-acid-battery/ http://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-ion-... Not sure how that carries over to larger batteries as I've only really dealt with them for ATV type use.
- andlier 10y ago40kg for lead acid equals 13.6kg for lithium so that's 66% lighter.
- Rhinobird 10y agoIs 200% lighter half as heavy, or is it buoyant? Cause 100% lighter is weightless. So 200% would be a negative weight. I am just confused.
- andlier 10y agoYou are correct, the link to powertechsystems.eu has those erroneous percentage calculations.
- Symmetry 10y agoThe back of my envelope says that a shipping container full of Li-on batteries would weight 192.5 tons at 2.5 kg/L compared to the maximum standard load of 30.5 tons. So it would have to be mostly empty. I don't think that makes it infeasible, though.
- stcredzero 10y agoMake it a 10ft shipping container. (1/4th size) That should be good for a full standard load of around 30 tons, with some empty space for equipment access. Maybe redox flow batteries will win for the grid scale use case, because it could become feasible to process the solution in-situ and save a bunch of shipping weight.
- revelation 10y agoIf it's just 50% away from profitability with the ridiculously cheap cost of electricity in California and the US in general, it will do just fine for vast swaths of the developed world. Not to mention that the edge of profitability probably isn't so much determined by the consumer price of electricity, but the sources that feed a countries grid. Lots of renewables with huge output swings (Germany) versus full nuclear (France).
- Symmetry 10y agoA big factor in profitability is normal swing in grid price which is going to tend to be pretty pretty big in California with it's high baseline energy prices and extensive use of renewables which come on and off line according to their own schedules.