7 ms·

I keep hearing this rhetoric and one could say that this superficial thinking because it's very out of line with how people all over the world use their cars to

by vecinu 10y ago

I keep hearing this rhetoric and one could say that this superficial thinking because it's very out of line with how people all over the world use their cars today. I don't feel comfortable renting out my car to strangers while it's not being used. I'm afraid of it getting dirty, them not operating it properly and causing mechanical damage that won't be seen for weeks. On the other hand, having an "on demand" car service as my only option would increase my transportation costs. My car is paid off, insurance is almost free and gas is dirt cheap in the US it might as well be free. If I had to Uber around with self driving cars my costs of getting around would skyrocket. Are you suggesting having your own car as well? That's the only way I could see this working.

smileysteve 10y ago
> I'm afraid of it getting dirty, them not operating it properly and causing mechanical damage that won't be seen for weeks. With level 5; this doesn't happen.
- developer2 10y ago
  Level 5 doesn't mean the driver can't take over - just that they should never have to. The driver will always have the ability to take manual control; something that won't change within our lifetimes. Even if a company manages to legally release a "level 5" car in the next 50 years, it will really only be "level 4.5" - 100% automation under all conditions isn't in the cards for the very near future. It astounds me how naive and over-optimistic we are seeing enthusiasts of self-driving cars behave. The industry is in its infancy, but people talk about it like our roads have been exclusively filled with them for decades, and all challenges and bugs have been conquered. Surely every person who talks about these cars like it's a solved domain can't all be prospecting, bandwagon investors.
  - sanderjd 10y ago
    Can you speak more to why you're so confident that this won't change within our lifetimes? I don't know how old you are, but my remaining lifetime is a pretty long time. It would have been impossible to predict the technological and legal conditions of today an equivalent number of years in the past. And I doubt we've gotten much better at predicting future advances.
  - kagamine 10y ago
    > and bugs have been conquered I can't get a bug free desktop OS after 40 years of development, what chance a fully automated vehicle?
- saosebastiao 10y ago
  So level 5 is supposed to magically stop people from barfing in the back seat, getting things accidentally wedged in door and trunk hinges, smearing dog poo on the carpets or scratching up seats with paws, opening car doors into traffic, or lighting up a massive doobie while riding? Level 5 is a fantasy world as it is, let's not pretend it can do even more than is described.
  - stevep98 10y ago
    Yes. It means that people who do those things often get their account suspended. If an Automated Uber arrives in an unsatisfactory condition, you could just reject it and send it back for maintenance/cleaning, and a new one will be on its way.
    - saosebastiao 10y ago
      You can do all of that today in non-magical normal Ubers, and yet it still happens.
    - smileysteve 10y ago
      Or they get charged significantly extra for it.
  - smileysteve 10y ago
    I was focusing on "operating it properly"
smileysteve 10y ago
> On the other hand, having an "on demand" car service as my only option would increase my transportation costs. I've done some of the math on this; here are some very conservative figures. - $50/mo for reasonable high deductible coverage. - $100/mo gas - $100/mo parking at the office - $x /mo parking at home (not realized in my case) - $80mo misc expenses (tires, wiper, diy synthetic oil change, taxes, car wash) $330/mo pays for a lot of $5 uber pool trips. And while our cars are paid of; The average American does not and is increasingly spending more. This adds an additional $300 to the amount I can spend on trips. This says nothing of the current liability of driving a car. Where an accident with a > $50k car with over $100k of medical costs creates a gap in coverage for the average American.
- vecinu 10y ago
  I don't commute to work by car so for my occasional use of getting groceries, going out to eat, getting a haircut or doing the occasional shopping, I don't spend anywhere near that much. - $40 for insurance - $30 gas - $5 (Maintenance) $75/month on my end. If I were to UberPOOL everywhere, besides the fact that it would be inconvenient because it would take longer and I would have to share a ride, it would cost more.
  - krunaldo 10y ago
    You'll have to calculate how much it costs to buy the car and the loss of value when you estimate to sell into that as well to get a fair comparision.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - verinus 10y ago
    If you don't drive much the fixed costs of buying the car factor in much more negatively compared to the variable costs. Every trip you make costs much more than someone who drives a lot. This is no easy function as it depends on your fixed costs vs. variable costs and trip lengh. Especially for people going shot distances on rare occasions a rented car might be the better option.
aninhumer 10y ago
>On the other hand, having an "on demand" car service as my only option would increase my transportation costs. I don't think anyone is suggesting it would be your only option, simply that most people would prefer it because it will be cheaper (since you're amortising the overheads of car ownership over many users). And while owning a car might feel prudent, if taxis become cheap enough, it might not be the best investment for your money anymore.
marcosdumay 10y ago
The fact that your car is paid off does not mean it will last forever. The on demand service will have well maintained cars, where the biggest costs (depreciation and insurance) are shared between a large number of people. There's just no way¹ private cars will be cheaper. 1 - Ok, there's government intervention and monopolies. Given a competitive market, there's no way.

by vecinu 10y ago

smileysteve 10y ago

> I'm afraid of it getting dirty, them not operating it properly and causing mechanical damage that won't be seen for weeks. With level 5; this doesn't happen.

developer2 10y ago
Level 5 doesn't mean the driver can't take over - just that they should never have to. The driver will always have the ability to take manual control; something that won't change within our lifetimes. Even if a company manages to legally release a "level 5" car in the next 50 years, it will really only be "level 4.5" - 100% automation under all conditions isn't in the cards for the very near future. It astounds me how naive and over-optimistic we are seeing enthusiasts of self-driving cars behave. The industry is in its infancy, but people talk about it like our roads have been exclusively filled with them for decades, and all challenges and bugs have been conquered. Surely every person who talks about these cars like it's a solved domain can't all be prospecting, bandwagon investors.
- sanderjd 10y ago
  Can you speak more to why you're so confident that this won't change within our lifetimes? I don't know how old you are, but my remaining lifetime is a pretty long time. It would have been impossible to predict the technological and legal conditions of today an equivalent number of years in the past. And I doubt we've gotten much better at predicting future advances.
- kagamine 10y ago
  > and bugs have been conquered I can't get a bug free desktop OS after 40 years of development, what chance a fully automated vehicle?
saosebastiao 10y ago
So level 5 is supposed to magically stop people from barfing in the back seat, getting things accidentally wedged in door and trunk hinges, smearing dog poo on the carpets or scratching up seats with paws, opening car doors into traffic, or lighting up a massive doobie while riding? Level 5 is a fantasy world as it is, let's not pretend it can do even more than is described.
- stevep98 10y ago
  Yes. It means that people who do those things often get their account suspended. If an Automated Uber arrives in an unsatisfactory condition, you could just reject it and send it back for maintenance/cleaning, and a new one will be on its way.
  - saosebastiao 10y ago
    You can do all of that today in non-magical normal Ubers, and yet it still happens.
  - smileysteve 10y ago
    Or they get charged significantly extra for it.
- smileysteve 10y ago
  I was focusing on "operating it properly"

smileysteve 10y ago

> On the other hand, having an "on demand" car service as my only option would increase my transportation costs. I've done some of the math on this; here are some very conservative figures. - $50/mo for reasonable high deductible coverage. - $100/mo gas - $100/mo parking at the office - $x /mo parking at home (not realized in my case) - $80mo misc expenses (tires, wiper, diy synthetic oil change, taxes, car wash) $330/mo pays for a lot of $5 uber pool trips. And while our cars are paid of; The average American does not and is increasingly spending more. This adds an additional $300 to the amount I can spend on trips. This says nothing of the current liability of driving a car. Where an accident with a > $50k car with over $100k of medical costs creates a gap in coverage for the average American.

vecinu 10y ago
I don't commute to work by car so for my occasional use of getting groceries, going out to eat, getting a haircut or doing the occasional shopping, I don't spend anywhere near that much. - $40 for insurance - $30 gas - $5 (Maintenance) $75/month on my end. If I were to UberPOOL everywhere, besides the fact that it would be inconvenient because it would take longer and I would have to share a ride, it would cost more.
- krunaldo 10y ago
  You'll have to calculate how much it costs to buy the car and the loss of value when you estimate to sell into that as well to get a fair comparision.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- verinus 10y ago
  If you don't drive much the fixed costs of buying the car factor in much more negatively compared to the variable costs. Every trip you make costs much more than someone who drives a lot. This is no easy function as it depends on your fixed costs vs. variable costs and trip lengh. Especially for people going shot distances on rare occasions a rented car might be the better option.

aninhumer 10y ago

>On the other hand, having an "on demand" car service as my only option would increase my transportation costs. I don't think anyone is suggesting it would be your only option, simply that most people would prefer it because it will be cheaper (since you're amortising the overheads of car ownership over many users). And while owning a car might feel prudent, if taxis become cheap enough, it might not be the best investment for your money anymore.

marcosdumay 10y ago

The fact that your car is paid off does not mean it will last forever. The on demand service will have well maintained cars, where the biggest costs (depreciation and insurance) are shared between a large number of people. There's just no way¹ private cars will be cheaper. 1 - Ok, there's government intervention and monopolies. Given a competitive market, there's no way.