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Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not look

Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not looking for anecdotes...

traek 10y ago
Yes, it's very likely that different demographic profiles have different driving behaviors. But given that they've shown this 40% crash rate reduction in their current demographic, it's reasonable to expect to see a similar reduction in other demographics (maybe not of the same magnitude, but at least in the same direction).
josinalvo 10y ago
If you believe a certain profile of people is more accident prone, maybe people that fit this profile will have more advantage when using autopilot?
jfoutz 10y ago
Varying insurance rates based on age and gender seem to indicate that, yes, demographics play a role in driving responsibility. A Tesla is not a cheap car. I kind of suspect the average Tesla driver is more responsible than the average driver. It may be the case that the average Tesla driver is very well off, and treat the cars as expensive toys though, so it's tough to say without numbers. If i had to bet right now, i'd bet on the more responsible side though.
- Ar-Curunir 10y ago
  Isn't this even better for Tesla then? People that supposedly already drive carefully now have fewer accidents.
- manicdee 10y ago
  I suspect the average Tesla driver is more irresponsible than the average driver, simply because they're rich and are used to getting their way. If you study rich drivers I have no doubt that you would find that they cut people off more, overtake in more dangerous situations, use their indicators less, drive over the speed limit more, proceed through amber signals later, run red lights more often, and generally show less regard for the rules than other drivers. This behaviour will also correlate to other areas of life where richer people simply care less for the rules. They're more likely to use social contacts or money (e.g.: "lawyer up") to get themselves out of any trouble they find themselves in. Teslas are not cheap cars. Given that money is (social evidence of) power, the people buying Teslas (and other expensive cars in general) are likely to expect other drivers to respect their status as powerful people.
  - nitrogen 10y ago
    Do the people you are describing with such harsh prejudice have more accidents? That's the real question.
  - illumin8 10y ago
    Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates. This is evidenced by me personally, as I now get much better auto insurance rates with an 800+ credit rating than I did when I was in the 600s right out of college. I would be willing to bet money that the insurance actuaries that actually calculate risk disagree with your extremely prejudiced opinion.
    - illumin8 10y ago
      If you disagree, commenting is probably more appropriate than downvoting. I'm still waiting to hear how your personal opinion about wealthy drivers is more accurate than auto insurance actuaries that calculate risk for a living.
      - nitrogen 10y ago
        > If you disagree, commenting is probably more appropriate than downvoting. FWIW, in case you were unaware, Hacker News doesn't allow commenters to downvote direct replies. So whoever might've downvoted you wasn't the parent, and someone corrected it with an upvote or undown (your comment isn't gray as of this writing).
    - Reason077 10y ago
      Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates. You're assuming that accident rates are directly correlated with claim rates, however. A wealthy individual is less likely claim for a minor accident, preferring to pay out of pocket for small repairs rather than take a big hit on their premiums. Someone less wealthy may not have that option. There are other reasons why wealth may reduce your risk to insurers that are unrelated to safe driving. You're less likely to leave a car parked insecurely in a dodgy part of town, for example. Finally, "drivers of luxury brand cars" certainly aren't the same set as "wealthy people with good credit records". Plenty of lower net worth people can still manage a lease on a BMW or Mercedes, or buy a used one. Drivers of luxury cars cause more accidents, insurers say: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/insurance/motorinsurance/11993627/Its-official-drivers-of-luxury-cars-cause-more-accidents-insurers-say.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/insurance...
maherbeg 10y ago
It seems like age is a rather large driver of involvement in crashes (younger/newer drivers end up being more crash prone) according to here: https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/2012OlderDriverRisk.pdf https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/2012OlderD... (page 5) Which seems like the current driver profile is possibly safer than the overall population since it's unlikely a large percentage of young drivers own a $100k car. It seems like the effect of widespread autopilot could be greater if it included this cohort.
Ensorceled 10y ago
Car insurance, and their actuarial models, are based entirely on this being true.

Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not looking for anecdotes...

traek 10y ago

Yes, it's very likely that different demographic profiles have different driving behaviors. But given that they've shown this 40% crash rate reduction in their current demographic, it's reasonable to expect to see a similar reduction in other demographics (maybe not of the same magnitude, but at least in the same direction).

josinalvo 10y ago

If you believe a certain profile of people is more accident prone, maybe people that fit this profile will have more advantage when using autopilot?

jfoutz 10y ago

Varying insurance rates based on age and gender seem to indicate that, yes, demographics play a role in driving responsibility. A Tesla is not a cheap car. I kind of suspect the average Tesla driver is more responsible than the average driver. It may be the case that the average Tesla driver is very well off, and treat the cars as expensive toys though, so it's tough to say without numbers. If i had to bet right now, i'd bet on the more responsible side though.

Ar-Curunir 10y ago
Isn't this even better for Tesla then? People that supposedly already drive carefully now have fewer accidents.
manicdee 10y ago
I suspect the average Tesla driver is more irresponsible than the average driver, simply because they're rich and are used to getting their way. If you study rich drivers I have no doubt that you would find that they cut people off more, overtake in more dangerous situations, use their indicators less, drive over the speed limit more, proceed through amber signals later, run red lights more often, and generally show less regard for the rules than other drivers. This behaviour will also correlate to other areas of life where richer people simply care less for the rules. They're more likely to use social contacts or money (e.g.: "lawyer up") to get themselves out of any trouble they find themselves in. Teslas are not cheap cars. Given that money is (social evidence of) power, the people buying Teslas (and other expensive cars in general) are likely to expect other drivers to respect their status as powerful people.
- nitrogen 10y ago
  Do the people you are describing with such harsh prejudice have more accidents? That's the real question.
- illumin8 10y ago
  Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates. This is evidenced by me personally, as I now get much better auto insurance rates with an 800+ credit rating than I did when I was in the 600s right out of college. I would be willing to bet money that the insurance actuaries that actually calculate risk disagree with your extremely prejudiced opinion.
  - illumin8 10y ago
    If you disagree, commenting is probably more appropriate than downvoting. I'm still waiting to hear how your personal opinion about wealthy drivers is more accurate than auto insurance actuaries that calculate risk for a living.
    - nitrogen 10y ago
      > If you disagree, commenting is probably more appropriate than downvoting. FWIW, in case you were unaware, Hacker News doesn't allow commenters to downvote direct replies. So whoever might've downvoted you wasn't the parent, and someone corrected it with an upvote or undown (your comment isn't gray as of this writing).
  - Reason077 10y ago
    Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates. You're assuming that accident rates are directly correlated with claim rates, however. A wealthy individual is less likely claim for a minor accident, preferring to pay out of pocket for small repairs rather than take a big hit on their premiums. Someone less wealthy may not have that option. There are other reasons why wealth may reduce your risk to insurers that are unrelated to safe driving. You're less likely to leave a car parked insecurely in a dodgy part of town, for example. Finally, "drivers of luxury brand cars" certainly aren't the same set as "wealthy people with good credit records". Plenty of lower net worth people can still manage a lease on a BMW or Mercedes, or buy a used one. Drivers of luxury cars cause more accidents, insurers say: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/insurance/motorinsurance/11993627/Its-official-drivers-of-luxury-cars-cause-more-accidents-insurers-say.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/insurance...

maherbeg 10y ago

It seems like age is a rather large driver of involvement in crashes (younger/newer drivers end up being more crash prone) according to here: https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/2012OlderDriverRisk.pdf https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/2012OlderD... (page 5) Which seems like the current driver profile is possibly safer than the overall population since it's unlikely a large percentage of young drivers own a $100k car. It seems like the effect of widespread autopilot could be greater if it included this cohort.

Ensorceled 10y ago

Car insurance, and their actuarial models, are based entirely on this being true.