3 ms·

You are proof that the hype surrounding AI/Machine Learning has gone way too far.

drcode 10y ago
I get your point, but in general I don't understand people who look at the things coming out of google et al lately and can still say to themselves "This is just a minor incremental improvement over previous AI research" I'm sorry, but the stuff coming out in the last couple of years just seems like it's in a totally different league to me...
ilaksh 10y ago
_I_ am proof? I wonder why you are making it personal. Its not about me though is it? Look at the Open AI Universe, Deep Mind AI Lab, Good AI Universe, etc. Look them up. They all say that the goal is artificial general intelligence. All of these companies/programs have multiple literal geniuses and tens or even hundreds of millions or more in funding. The AGI environments are public, so who knows how many hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of talented programmers and scientists are working towards the same goal. Do _you_ think that all of these large programs, companies, investors would be so publicly pursuing this goal if it were not feasible? If not within two years, then how many years do you think it will be before these projects yield results that have human-like generality or abilities? If you suppose they will never achieve that, then what level of generality do you assume them to be limited to? Certainly those groups expect to achieve some type of general intelligence. So perhaps you assume in the near term it will not be human-level, then at what level do you suppose it will be limited? Dog-like intelligence? Once agents achieve dog-like intelligence, why would you assume there would not be a way to progress beyond that? We have already achieved super-human intelligence in numerous particular domains.
- frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
  > _I_ am proof? I wonder why you are making it personal. Its not about me though is it? Fair enough. Your post is proof > Do _you_ think that all of these large programs, companies, investors would be so publicly pursuing this goal if it were not feasible? Sure, it happens all the time. > If not within two years, then how many years do you think it will be before these projects yield results that have human-like generality or abilities? I'm not sure those projects ever will but in general before we get AGI? It's totally unpredictable. My current best guess is that self-driving car systems won't be as good as promised and because they've pierced the public consciousness, we will get AI backlash setting in another AI winter. This winter will trim the fat of all the crap that gets published now and maybe* a couple new fundamental techniques will be born. Maybe those techniques lead to AGI when we emerge from the winter. We'll get AGI like we'll get cold fusion. When it comes it comes. > We have already achieved super-human intelligence in numerous particular domains. Sure but show me a system that can do just two unrelated tasks. Doesn't even have to do them above human intelligence, but something that can say put blocks in holes like a two year old and do some basic language processing. Or play chess and recognize pictures of dogs. What kind of leap is even required to get there?

I get your point, but in general I don't understand people who look at the things coming out of google et al lately and can still say to themselves "This is just a minor incremental improvement over previous AI research" I'm sorry, but the stuff coming out in the last couple of years just seems like it's in a totally different league to me...

ilaksh 10y ago

_I_ am proof? I wonder why you are making it personal. Its not about me though is it? Look at the Open AI Universe, Deep Mind AI Lab, Good AI Universe, etc. Look them up. They all say that the goal is artificial general intelligence. All of these companies/programs have multiple literal geniuses and tens or even hundreds of millions or more in funding. The AGI environments are public, so who knows how many hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of talented programmers and scientists are working towards the same goal. Do _you_ think that all of these large programs, companies, investors would be so publicly pursuing this goal if it were not feasible? If not within two years, then how many years do you think it will be before these projects yield results that have human-like generality or abilities? If you suppose they will never achieve that, then what level of generality do you assume them to be limited to? Certainly those groups expect to achieve some type of general intelligence. So perhaps you assume in the near term it will not be human-level, then at what level do you suppose it will be limited? Dog-like intelligence? Once agents achieve dog-like intelligence, why would you assume there would not be a way to progress beyond that? We have already achieved super-human intelligence in numerous particular domains.

frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
> _I_ am proof? I wonder why you are making it personal. Its not about me though is it? Fair enough. Your post is proof > Do _you_ think that all of these large programs, companies, investors would be so publicly pursuing this goal if it were not feasible? Sure, it happens all the time. > If not within two years, then how many years do you think it will be before these projects yield results that have human-like generality or abilities? I'm not sure those projects ever will but in general before we get AGI? It's totally unpredictable. My current best guess is that self-driving car systems won't be as good as promised and because they've pierced the public consciousness, we will get AI backlash setting in another AI winter. This winter will trim the fat of all the crap that gets published now and maybe* a couple new fundamental techniques will be born. Maybe those techniques lead to AGI when we emerge from the winter. We'll get AGI like we'll get cold fusion. When it comes it comes. > We have already achieved super-human intelligence in numerous particular domains. Sure but show me a system that can do just two unrelated tasks. Doesn't even have to do them above human intelligence, but something that can say put blocks in holes like a two year old and do some basic language processing. Or play chess and recognize pictures of dogs. What kind of leap is even required to get there?