4 ms·

Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline

38 points by danieldk 10y ago

BipolarElsa 10y ago
People can and should pay a premium for better hardware/design. This just proves it.
zihotki 10y ago
Original topic - Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline. Mac sales grew a tiny bit in 2016 but that doesn't imply that they are still growing.
- NathanOsullivan 10y ago
  Not only that - Dell, HP and Lenovo sales also grew YoY in 4Q16 with Dell and HP both having higher increase in both %age and absolute terms than Apple.
igravious 10y ago
This is editorialising! (HN title currently is “Mac sales grow amid PC decline”) The actual title is "Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline" Furthermore, given the data Lenovo 15,781 21.7 15,535 20.6 1.6 HP Inc. 14,808 20.4 14,204 18.8 4.3 Dell 10,723 14.8 10,175 13.5 5.4 Asus 5,452 7.5 5,960 7.9 -8.5 Apple 5,440 7.5 5,312 7.0 2.4 Acer Group 4,999 6.9 5,228 6.9 -4.4 and given that Macs are PCs you could also title this, “Of the top six PC vendors Apple grew third strongest but remains in fifth position; Windows PCs remain dominant amid overall market decline”
- pjmlp 10y ago
  > Macs are PCs Apple doesn't agree with you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eEG5LVXdKo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eEG5LVXdKo
- bluedino 10y ago
  According to that one stats site the other day, Apple lost 25 million users. -sarcasm-
kryptiskt 10y ago
For the whole year Apple declined faster than the market. 2.4% year-on-year growth isn't impressive considering that they finally refreshed their product line in that quarter.
- spiderfarmer 10y ago
  If only they did refresh their product line. iMacs, Mac pros and Mac Minis were sadly neglected.
  - simonh 10y ago
    True, but i think we're going to just have to get used to longer refresh cycles for the Mac. To be fair to Apple if users make their machines last a few years longer, there's less drive to refresh to product as frequently. That doesn't mean Apple is abandoning the Mac, it just means they're adjusting to the market.
kukx 10y ago
It's not a surprise as a PC usability-span gets longer the rate of replacement gets lower.
- croon 10y ago
  That is possibly the big one I would say. I can only refer to data like in OP, but I feel (yes, baseless statement) like the PC industry has only gotten bigger in recent years. When I've seen results like this before I've tried to find reports on PC components instead (to no avail). Could it be that casual users can do all their tasks on their phones/tablets now compared to 10 years ago, while the enthusiasts build their PC:s from scratch, thus hollowing out the OEM PC market, leaving only laptops?
  - kbart 10y ago
    "Could it be that casual users can do their all their tasks on their phones/tablets now compared to 10 years ago, while the enthusiasts build their PC:s from scratch, thus hollowing out the OEM PC market, leaving only laptops?" I too think that's exactly the point. Average user doesn't need desktop PC anymore and buys smartphones, tablets, consoles instead, while power users and gamers usually build their rig from srcatch. Also, there's no need to upgrade PC every two years as technologies (maybe except GPUs) doesn't evolve as fast as it was used to. TL;DR it's not PC market that's shrinking, but a branded PC market.
    - hyperpallium 10y ago
      The smartphone factor does suggest a shrinkimg PC market. Further, now even smartphones are more powerful than average users need, so e.g. the iPhone 5s is still selling well.
  - pjmlp 10y ago
    I stopped buying desktops and moved 100% to laptops around 2003, the last desktop lasted from 2003 to 2013. Only the CD-ROM drive got replaced by a DVD one, because it broke down, nothing else was changed. Even the laptops got used until they either died or in one case, got stolen. We are way beyond the need of changing computers every three years.
bitcharmer 10y ago
I stopped reading after "Gartner says...". Their predictions have a terrible track record and I am genuinely amazed by how much attention they are still getting. http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-does-the-it-industry-continue-to-listen-to-gartner/# http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-does-the-it-industry-contin...! https://www.engadget.com/2015/01/05/in-2011-gartner-made-this-hilarious-prediction-about-the-iphone/ https://www.engadget.com/2015/01/05/in-2011-gartner-made-thi...
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- croon 10y ago
  While I agree about their preductions, OP was a 2016 sales estimate, not a prediction.
- seanmcdirmid 10y ago
  Predicting a 5th year of continued declines is actually not a very risky prediction. You plot the data, look at the graph, and say "duh." If the decline could be stopped, that would be much more newsworthy! In this case, they are merely reporting what happened, not saying what will.
bryanlarsen 10y ago
Looks to me like the story is that enterprise sales are up (HP, Dell) while consumer sales are down (Acer, Asus, Others). Companies that are strong in both markets are flat (Apple, Lenovo).
simonh 10y ago
Up to 2014 Gartner reported on the top 5 companies by global PC shipments. For a long time, Apple was number 6 but wasn't included. Then in 2015, Apple became number 5 rather than Acer Group. So did Acer drop off the list? No, suddenly Gartner started reporting on the top 6 manufacturers by global shipments. Interesting.

38 points by danieldk 10y ago

People can and should pay a premium for better hardware/design. This just proves it.

Original topic - Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline. Mac sales grew a tiny bit in 2016 but that doesn't imply that they are still growing.

NathanOsullivan 10y ago
Not only that - Dell, HP and Lenovo sales also grew YoY in 4Q16 with Dell and HP both having higher increase in both %age and absolute terms than Apple.

igravious 10y ago

This is editorialising! (HN title currently is “Mac sales grow amid PC decline”) The actual title is "Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline" Furthermore, given the data Lenovo 15,781 21.7 15,535 20.6 1.6 HP Inc. 14,808 20.4 14,204 18.8 4.3 Dell 10,723 14.8 10,175 13.5 5.4 Asus 5,452 7.5 5,960 7.9 -8.5 Apple 5,440 7.5 5,312 7.0 2.4 Acer Group 4,999 6.9 5,228 6.9 -4.4 and given that Macs are PCs you could also title this, “Of the top six PC vendors Apple grew third strongest but remains in fifth position; Windows PCs remain dominant amid overall market decline”

pjmlp 10y ago
> Macs are PCs Apple doesn't agree with you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eEG5LVXdKo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eEG5LVXdKo
bluedino 10y ago
According to that one stats site the other day, Apple lost 25 million users. -sarcasm-

kryptiskt 10y ago

For the whole year Apple declined faster than the market. 2.4% year-on-year growth isn't impressive considering that they finally refreshed their product line in that quarter.

spiderfarmer 10y ago
If only they did refresh their product line. iMacs, Mac pros and Mac Minis were sadly neglected.
- simonh 10y ago
  True, but i think we're going to just have to get used to longer refresh cycles for the Mac. To be fair to Apple if users make their machines last a few years longer, there's less drive to refresh to product as frequently. That doesn't mean Apple is abandoning the Mac, it just means they're adjusting to the market.

kukx 10y ago

It's not a surprise as a PC usability-span gets longer the rate of replacement gets lower.

croon 10y ago
That is possibly the big one I would say. I can only refer to data like in OP, but I feel (yes, baseless statement) like the PC industry has only gotten bigger in recent years. When I've seen results like this before I've tried to find reports on PC components instead (to no avail). Could it be that casual users can do all their tasks on their phones/tablets now compared to 10 years ago, while the enthusiasts build their PC:s from scratch, thus hollowing out the OEM PC market, leaving only laptops?
- kbart 10y ago
  "Could it be that casual users can do their all their tasks on their phones/tablets now compared to 10 years ago, while the enthusiasts build their PC:s from scratch, thus hollowing out the OEM PC market, leaving only laptops?" I too think that's exactly the point. Average user doesn't need desktop PC anymore and buys smartphones, tablets, consoles instead, while power users and gamers usually build their rig from srcatch. Also, there's no need to upgrade PC every two years as technologies (maybe except GPUs) doesn't evolve as fast as it was used to. TL;DR it's not PC market that's shrinking, but a branded PC market.
  - hyperpallium 10y ago
    The smartphone factor does suggest a shrinkimg PC market. Further, now even smartphones are more powerful than average users need, so e.g. the iPhone 5s is still selling well.
- pjmlp 10y ago
  I stopped buying desktops and moved 100% to laptops around 2003, the last desktop lasted from 2003 to 2013. Only the CD-ROM drive got replaced by a DVD one, because it broke down, nothing else was changed. Even the laptops got used until they either died or in one case, got stolen. We are way beyond the need of changing computers every three years.

bitcharmer 10y ago

I stopped reading after "Gartner says...". Their predictions have a terrible track record and I am genuinely amazed by how much attention they are still getting. http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-does-the-it-industry-continue-to-listen-to-gartner/# http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-does-the-it-industry-contin...! https://www.engadget.com/2015/01/05/in-2011-gartner-made-this-hilarious-prediction-about-the-iphone/ https://www.engadget.com/2015/01/05/in-2011-gartner-made-thi...

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
croon 10y ago
While I agree about their preductions, OP was a 2016 sales estimate, not a prediction.
seanmcdirmid 10y ago
Predicting a 5th year of continued declines is actually not a very risky prediction. You plot the data, look at the graph, and say "duh." If the decline could be stopped, that would be much more newsworthy! In this case, they are merely reporting what happened, not saying what will.

bryanlarsen 10y ago

Looks to me like the story is that enterprise sales are up (HP, Dell) while consumer sales are down (Acer, Asus, Others). Companies that are strong in both markets are flat (Apple, Lenovo).

simonh 10y ago

Up to 2014 Gartner reported on the top 5 companies by global PC shipments. For a long time, Apple was number 6 but wasn't included. Then in 2015, Apple became number 5 rather than Acer Group. So did Acer drop off the list? No, suddenly Gartner started reporting on the top 6 manufacturers by global shipments. Interesting.