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Well, I'm not literally an idiot either. Your fallacy is that I'm worried about Musk's business encountering a shortage of lithium. I'm not. I'm only wondering

Well, I'm not literally an idiot either. Your fallacy is that I'm worried about Musk's business encountering a shortage of lithium. I'm not. I'm only wondering if a massive worldwide transition to lithium-based batteries triggered by his move might cause or otherwise encounter a lithium shortage in the foreseeable future (say, 40 years from now). This is not a worry about him or his business, this is a worry about the longer-term effects quite beyond that.

extrapickles 10y ago
At current consumption there are ~430yrs of known reserves, with factoring in projected growth, they will last ~200yrs. I suspect people don't search for lithium deposits with much vigor right now as there isn't much demand for it and the known deposits will last for quite a while (why look for something we run out of in 200yrs, when there are things at 60yrs). At ~250mg/kwh (15-25kg per Tesla car) the current reserves of lithium could make enough batteries for nearly a billion cars without recycling any of them. Since the packs will be large, uniform and contain expensive metals like cobalt, they will be recycled so I would suspect demand for lithium would go down when the market becomes saturated (probably not in our lifetimes), just like how lead-acid car batteries don't need much new lead as quite a bit of it comes from old batteries. Between these two points, I don't think lithium is worth worrying about.
- FireBeyond 10y ago
  I think it's interesting that people have this perspective. Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The industrial era has been around less than 200 years and we have multiple non-renewables that we have or are exhausting the entire planet's supply, and our approach is "well, we probably have 200 years of it, it's not really an issue when there's other stuff running out in 60 years or so". We are amazingly blind (or wilfully ignorant) to the future beyond our grandchildren.
  - grzm 10y ago
    Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The figure piqued my interest. I doubt your argument weighs much on it (nor am I taking a position on it), but when are you measuring from? Some possibilities I thought of: - 3 million years ago - Stone Age begins - 1.8–0.2 million years ago - Homo sapiens sapiens emerges - 13,000 BCE - Animal domestication (pigs) - 11,500 BCE - Agriculture (rice domestication)
    - FireBeyond 10y ago
      I think I was going from "earliest signs of civilization" (i.e. French or Australian cave art, and similarities). I admit to being surprised by the number for Homo sapiens. I'd have to think it was closer to the 0.2 than the 1.8. But even then, that'd make it worse. Even at 13,000 BCE, we're still not doing so well. It can be argued that primitive man didn't have the ability to extract many resources, so it's not comparable, but I don't think that's the case. We shouldn't get a free pass because we have no history of "mass pillage of earthly resources" with which to compare.
    - dotancohen 10y ago
      The 40,000 years probably refers to "behaviorally-modern humans", which according to one theory appeared suddenly 50,000 - 60,000 years ago, and according to another theory developed slowly starting 2 million years ago and ended 50,000 years ago. The 50,000 year mark is generally accepted as the latest time when speech and language were developed, though that could have in fact happened earlier.
      - grzm 10y ago
        Thanks for this. Interesting concept. For reference to others, there's a Wikipedia page on the topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_modernity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_modernity In order to classify what traits should be included in modern human behavior, it is necessary to define behaviors that are universal among living human groups. Some examples of these human universals are abstract thought, planning, trade, cooperative labor, body decoration, control and use of fire. Along with these traits, humans possess a heavy reliance on social learning. ... Archaeological evidence of behavioral modernity are: - burial - fishing - figurative art (cave paintings, petroglyphs, dendroglyphs, figurines) - systematic use of pigment (such as ochre) and jewelry for decoration or self-ornamentation - Using bone material for tools - Transport of resources over long distances - Blade technology - Diversity, standardization, and regionally distinct artifacts - Hearths - Composite tools Of particular interesting is how they show criteria like abstract thought and planning, which at first blush don't seem very amenable to leaving direct archeological evidence.
- e12e 10y ago
  > At current consumption there are ~430yrs of known reserves, with factoring in projected growth, they will last ~200yrs. So, a doubling every 5? 10? years, if the gigafactory is a start of a trend, rather than the last great battery factory? Those 200 years would then be cut quite drastically! [ed: whops, misread "projected growth" for "project growth" (ie: growth due to the gigafactory alone. Still, I think the point stands that accelerating demand could change the sustainability of resources.]
  - snrplfth 10y ago
    Those 200 years supply refers to currently known reserves, which is to say, lithium whose location is known, has been proven to be present at a certain level, and is economically feasible to extract with current technology. There's lots more lithium out there, there's just not much point looking for or proving its presence yet. That "200 years' reserve" is a small fraction of all the lithium available.

extrapickles 10y ago

At current consumption there are ~430yrs of known reserves, with factoring in projected growth, they will last ~200yrs. I suspect people don't search for lithium deposits with much vigor right now as there isn't much demand for it and the known deposits will last for quite a while (why look for something we run out of in 200yrs, when there are things at 60yrs). At ~250mg/kwh (15-25kg per Tesla car) the current reserves of lithium could make enough batteries for nearly a billion cars without recycling any of them. Since the packs will be large, uniform and contain expensive metals like cobalt, they will be recycled so I would suspect demand for lithium would go down when the market becomes saturated (probably not in our lifetimes), just like how lead-acid car batteries don't need much new lead as quite a bit of it comes from old batteries. Between these two points, I don't think lithium is worth worrying about.

FireBeyond 10y ago
I think it's interesting that people have this perspective. Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The industrial era has been around less than 200 years and we have multiple non-renewables that we have or are exhausting the entire planet's supply, and our approach is "well, we probably have 200 years of it, it's not really an issue when there's other stuff running out in 60 years or so". We are amazingly blind (or wilfully ignorant) to the future beyond our grandchildren.
- grzm 10y ago
  Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The figure piqued my interest. I doubt your argument weighs much on it (nor am I taking a position on it), but when are you measuring from? Some possibilities I thought of: - 3 million years ago - Stone Age begins - 1.8–0.2 million years ago - Homo sapiens sapiens emerges - 13,000 BCE - Animal domestication (pigs) - 11,500 BCE - Agriculture (rice domestication)
  - FireBeyond 10y ago
    I think I was going from "earliest signs of civilization" (i.e. French or Australian cave art, and similarities). I admit to being surprised by the number for Homo sapiens. I'd have to think it was closer to the 0.2 than the 1.8. But even then, that'd make it worse. Even at 13,000 BCE, we're still not doing so well. It can be argued that primitive man didn't have the ability to extract many resources, so it's not comparable, but I don't think that's the case. We shouldn't get a free pass because we have no history of "mass pillage of earthly resources" with which to compare.
  - dotancohen 10y ago
    The 40,000 years probably refers to "behaviorally-modern humans", which according to one theory appeared suddenly 50,000 - 60,000 years ago, and according to another theory developed slowly starting 2 million years ago and ended 50,000 years ago. The 50,000 year mark is generally accepted as the latest time when speech and language were developed, though that could have in fact happened earlier.
    - grzm 10y ago
      Thanks for this. Interesting concept. For reference to others, there's a Wikipedia page on the topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_modernity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_modernity In order to classify what traits should be included in modern human behavior, it is necessary to define behaviors that are universal among living human groups. Some examples of these human universals are abstract thought, planning, trade, cooperative labor, body decoration, control and use of fire. Along with these traits, humans possess a heavy reliance on social learning. ... Archaeological evidence of behavioral modernity are: - burial - fishing - figurative art (cave paintings, petroglyphs, dendroglyphs, figurines) - systematic use of pigment (such as ochre) and jewelry for decoration or self-ornamentation - Using bone material for tools - Transport of resources over long distances - Blade technology - Diversity, standardization, and regionally distinct artifacts - Hearths - Composite tools Of particular interesting is how they show criteria like abstract thought and planning, which at first blush don't seem very amenable to leaving direct archeological evidence.
e12e 10y ago
> At current consumption there are ~430yrs of known reserves, with factoring in projected growth, they will last ~200yrs. So, a doubling every 5? 10? years, if the gigafactory is a start of a trend, rather than the last great battery factory? Those 200 years would then be cut quite drastically! [ed: whops, misread "projected growth" for "project growth" (ie: growth due to the gigafactory alone. Still, I think the point stands that accelerating demand could change the sustainability of resources.]
- snrplfth 10y ago
  Those 200 years supply refers to currently known reserves, which is to say, lithium whose location is known, has been proven to be present at a certain level, and is economically feasible to extract with current technology. There's lots more lithium out there, there's just not much point looking for or proving its presence yet. That "200 years' reserve" is a small fraction of all the lithium available.