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Question: How much lithium can we rely on being able to extract for the foreseeable future? Do we not have a shortage of any kind?

aerovistae 10y ago
Whenever I see people asking this, or worse suggesting outright with great self-assurance that the lithium supply will soon run out, here is my thought process: 1. Musk is a seasoned business leader with 12+ years' experience running SpaceX and Tesla simultaneously, overseeing every aspect of the businesses, so far very successfully. 2. Clearly Musk knows he will need a large lithium supply, since Musk is not literally an idiot, which you would have to be in order to start the largest lithium battery factory in the world without thinking about lithium supply. 3. Clearly Musk investigated this matter. 4. Musk is moving forward as if lithium supply is not a problem. 5. QED, either lithium supply is not a problem, or Musk is investing billions into something that he has no plan for how to make work. 6. One of these seems more likely than the other.
- alexfisher 10y ago
  Space X rockets and asteroid mining are next!
- wfunction 10y ago
  Well, I'm not literally an idiot either. Your fallacy is that I'm worried about Musk's business encountering a shortage of lithium. I'm not. I'm only wondering if a massive worldwide transition to lithium-based batteries triggered by his move might cause or otherwise encounter a lithium shortage in the foreseeable future (say, 40 years from now). This is not a worry about him or his business, this is a worry about the longer-term effects quite beyond that.
  - extrapickles 10y ago
    At current consumption there are ~430yrs of known reserves, with factoring in projected growth, they will last ~200yrs. I suspect people don't search for lithium deposits with much vigor right now as there isn't much demand for it and the known deposits will last for quite a while (why look for something we run out of in 200yrs, when there are things at 60yrs). At ~250mg/kwh (15-25kg per Tesla car) the current reserves of lithium could make enough batteries for nearly a billion cars without recycling any of them. Since the packs will be large, uniform and contain expensive metals like cobalt, they will be recycled so I would suspect demand for lithium would go down when the market becomes saturated (probably not in our lifetimes), just like how lead-acid car batteries don't need much new lead as quite a bit of it comes from old batteries. Between these two points, I don't think lithium is worth worrying about.
    - FireBeyond 10y ago
      I think it's interesting that people have this perspective. Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The industrial era has been around less than 200 years and we have multiple non-renewables that we have or are exhausting the entire planet's supply, and our approach is "well, we probably have 200 years of it, it's not really an issue when there's other stuff running out in 60 years or so". We are amazingly blind (or wilfully ignorant) to the future beyond our grandchildren.
      - grzm 10y ago
        Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The figure piqued my interest. I doubt your argument weighs much on it (nor am I taking a position on it), but when are you measuring from? Some possibilities I thought of: - 3 million years ago - Stone Age begins - 1.8–0.2 million years ago - Homo sapiens sapiens emerges - 13,000 BCE - Animal domestication (pigs) - 11,500 BCE - Agriculture (rice domestication)
        FireBeyond 10y ago
        I think I was going from "earliest signs of civilization" (i.e. French or Australian cave art, and similarities). I admit to being surprised by the number for Homo sapiens. I'd have to think it was closer to the 0.2 than the 1.8. But even then, that'd make it worse. Even at 13,000 BCE, we're still not doing so well. It can be argued that primitive man didn't have the ability to extract many resources, so it's not comparable, but I don't think that's the case. We shouldn't get a free pass because we have no history of "mass pillage of earthly resources" with which to compare.
        dotancohen 10y ago
        The 40,000 years probably refers to "behaviorally-modern humans", which according to one theory appeared suddenly 50,000 - 60,000 years ago, and according to another theory developed slowly starting 2 million years ago and ended 50,000 years ago. The 50,000 year mark is generally accepted as the latest time when speech and language were developed, though that could have in fact happened earlier.
- intherdfield 10y ago
  It's reasonable to want to know the answer rather than to be content that Elon Musk must know the answer. Asking the question isn't an attack. I found a few reports online.
- IanCal 10y ago
  That is all valid for "is there enough lithium for Musk to make a big profit on this factory?" but is not the same for "is there enough lithium for the foreseeable future?". There isn't enough oil to power our civilisation for the foreseeable future, but people are still building wells and selling their contents. There might easily be enough, or it might be easily recyclable but those are perfectly sensible questions to ask that aren't answered by your thought process.
  - jessaustin 10y ago
    Peak oil has been "foreseen" for decades now, except it hasn't happened yet...
philipkglass 10y ago
World lithium reserves 2016: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mc... Also enlightening, world lithium reserves known in 2010: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2010-lithi.pdf https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mc... Note that reported reserves have increased by ~41% in 6 years (14 million tonnes in 2016 up from 9.9 million in 2010) even as extraction accelerated. Companies have been putting more effort into discovery which has increased known reserves much faster than increasing extraction is drawing them down. So no, no lithium shortage in the foreseeable future.
- jseliger 10y ago
  So no, no lithium shortage in the foreseeable future. In addition, as of now cobalt and nickel are actually more valuable: https://waste-management-world.com/a/1-the-lithium-battery-recycling-challenge https://waste-management-world.com/a/1-the-lithium-battery-r.... There are efforts underway to make lithium recycling effective at commercial scale, but the current chemistry of it and the current (low) cost of lithium metal means that not much is happening in this domain at the moment. Still, I would expect commercial lithium metal recycling long before before we are even remotely close to exhausting lithium stocks.
eigenvalue 10y ago
At the right price, there is no shortage of lithium capacity. What is in short supply are the reserves of lithium that can be extracted at relatively low cost, which generally come from salt flats in places like Chile; there are few such resources in the world. On the other hand, there is a vast amount of spodumene mineral which can be converted into lithium at a higher cost. And theoretically (say, in 100 years), there is plenty of lithium in the ocean; it would just take a much higher price per pound of lithium to justify extracting it.

aerovistae 10y ago

Whenever I see people asking this, or worse suggesting outright with great self-assurance that the lithium supply will soon run out, here is my thought process: 1. Musk is a seasoned business leader with 12+ years' experience running SpaceX and Tesla simultaneously, overseeing every aspect of the businesses, so far very successfully. 2. Clearly Musk knows he will need a large lithium supply, since Musk is not literally an idiot, which you would have to be in order to start the largest lithium battery factory in the world without thinking about lithium supply. 3. Clearly Musk investigated this matter. 4. Musk is moving forward as if lithium supply is not a problem. 5. QED, either lithium supply is not a problem, or Musk is investing billions into something that he has no plan for how to make work. 6. One of these seems more likely than the other.

alexfisher 10y ago
Space X rockets and asteroid mining are next!
wfunction 10y ago
Well, I'm not literally an idiot either. Your fallacy is that I'm worried about Musk's business encountering a shortage of lithium. I'm not. I'm only wondering if a massive worldwide transition to lithium-based batteries triggered by his move might cause or otherwise encounter a lithium shortage in the foreseeable future (say, 40 years from now). This is not a worry about him or his business, this is a worry about the longer-term effects quite beyond that.
- extrapickles 10y ago
  At current consumption there are ~430yrs of known reserves, with factoring in projected growth, they will last ~200yrs. I suspect people don't search for lithium deposits with much vigor right now as there isn't much demand for it and the known deposits will last for quite a while (why look for something we run out of in 200yrs, when there are things at 60yrs). At ~250mg/kwh (15-25kg per Tesla car) the current reserves of lithium could make enough batteries for nearly a billion cars without recycling any of them. Since the packs will be large, uniform and contain expensive metals like cobalt, they will be recycled so I would suspect demand for lithium would go down when the market becomes saturated (probably not in our lifetimes), just like how lead-acid car batteries don't need much new lead as quite a bit of it comes from old batteries. Between these two points, I don't think lithium is worth worrying about.
  - FireBeyond 10y ago
    I think it's interesting that people have this perspective. Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The industrial era has been around less than 200 years and we have multiple non-renewables that we have or are exhausting the entire planet's supply, and our approach is "well, we probably have 200 years of it, it's not really an issue when there's other stuff running out in 60 years or so". We are amazingly blind (or wilfully ignorant) to the future beyond our grandchildren.
    - grzm 10y ago
      Mankind has been around for what - 40,000 years or so? The figure piqued my interest. I doubt your argument weighs much on it (nor am I taking a position on it), but when are you measuring from? Some possibilities I thought of: - 3 million years ago - Stone Age begins - 1.8–0.2 million years ago - Homo sapiens sapiens emerges - 13,000 BCE - Animal domestication (pigs) - 11,500 BCE - Agriculture (rice domestication)
      - FireBeyond 10y ago
        I think I was going from "earliest signs of civilization" (i.e. French or Australian cave art, and similarities). I admit to being surprised by the number for Homo sapiens. I'd have to think it was closer to the 0.2 than the 1.8. But even then, that'd make it worse. Even at 13,000 BCE, we're still not doing so well. It can be argued that primitive man didn't have the ability to extract many resources, so it's not comparable, but I don't think that's the case. We shouldn't get a free pass because we have no history of "mass pillage of earthly resources" with which to compare.
      - dotancohen 10y ago
        The 40,000 years probably refers to "behaviorally-modern humans", which according to one theory appeared suddenly 50,000 - 60,000 years ago, and according to another theory developed slowly starting 2 million years ago and ended 50,000 years ago. The 50,000 year mark is generally accepted as the latest time when speech and language were developed, though that could have in fact happened earlier.
intherdfield 10y ago
It's reasonable to want to know the answer rather than to be content that Elon Musk must know the answer. Asking the question isn't an attack. I found a few reports online.
IanCal 10y ago
That is all valid for "is there enough lithium for Musk to make a big profit on this factory?" but is not the same for "is there enough lithium for the foreseeable future?". There isn't enough oil to power our civilisation for the foreseeable future, but people are still building wells and selling their contents. There might easily be enough, or it might be easily recyclable but those are perfectly sensible questions to ask that aren't answered by your thought process.
- jessaustin 10y ago
  Peak oil has been "foreseen" for decades now, except it hasn't happened yet...

philipkglass 10y ago

World lithium reserves 2016: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mc... Also enlightening, world lithium reserves known in 2010: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2010-lithi.pdf https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mc... Note that reported reserves have increased by ~41% in 6 years (14 million tonnes in 2016 up from 9.9 million in 2010) even as extraction accelerated. Companies have been putting more effort into discovery which has increased known reserves much faster than increasing extraction is drawing them down. So no, no lithium shortage in the foreseeable future.

jseliger 10y ago
So no, no lithium shortage in the foreseeable future. In addition, as of now cobalt and nickel are actually more valuable: https://waste-management-world.com/a/1-the-lithium-battery-recycling-challenge https://waste-management-world.com/a/1-the-lithium-battery-r.... There are efforts underway to make lithium recycling effective at commercial scale, but the current chemistry of it and the current (low) cost of lithium metal means that not much is happening in this domain at the moment. Still, I would expect commercial lithium metal recycling long before before we are even remotely close to exhausting lithium stocks.

eigenvalue 10y ago

At the right price, there is no shortage of lithium capacity. What is in short supply are the reserves of lithium that can be extracted at relatively low cost, which generally come from salt flats in places like Chile; there are few such resources in the world. On the other hand, there is a vast amount of spodumene mineral which can be converted into lithium at a higher cost. And theoretically (say, in 100 years), there is plenty of lithium in the ocean; it would just take a much higher price per pound of lithium to justify extracting it.