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But it would collapse China's economy too if it were done overnight.

coldtea 10y ago
The US is 4% of the world. With other countries developing rich consuming middle classes, that might not be that certain, especially in the future.
- davidmr 10y ago
  4% by population of course, which is what you meant, but I think 40% of the world by wealth. While I understand what you mean by saying there are new middle classes being created from the other 96%, it seems like, absent another even more catastrophic economic screwup than we put ourselves through 8 years ago, American domination of the world market isn't going anywhere any time soon.
  - coldtea 10y ago
    Well, let's hope it does. Other people need to get rich too.
  - eva1984 10y ago
    In terms of GDP, US is about 20-25% of the globe. It is pretty significant, but I won't go too far to say it has domination.
    - davidmr 10y ago
      Well said. Domination isn't the right word; perhaps "importance to" rather than "domination of".
bilbo0s 10y ago
The number is 18%. That's how much of China's GDP is dependent on exports to the US. A significant paycut as it were, but hardly fatal. (If they were to stop exporting to us, it would hardly be a fatal blow to us either. There is just not as much there in terms of percentage of GDP as everyone seems to think.)
- seanmcdirmid 10y ago
  They would have to cut off trade to much of the west as well, otherwise exports would simply be redirected. They could do USA did with Iran, and refuse to trade with anyone hat trades with the USA, but that is a losing proposition for them. Basically, china cuti off trade with the USA would be a North Korea style action.
- harigov 10y ago
  Does that include all the value created locally in order to be able to make those exports? Like food that people eat, vehicles that they have to drive, etc., That much drop in economic activity will surely trigger much worse outlook than you are alluding to.
- witty_username 10y ago
  No, not directly, but indirectly people would be afraid of further radical policy changes by China. Investors would move their money out of China. Or at least, that's what I'd do.

The US is 4% of the world. With other countries developing rich consuming middle classes, that might not be that certain, especially in the future.

davidmr 10y ago
4% by population of course, which is what you meant, but I think 40% of the world by wealth. While I understand what you mean by saying there are new middle classes being created from the other 96%, it seems like, absent another even more catastrophic economic screwup than we put ourselves through 8 years ago, American domination of the world market isn't going anywhere any time soon.
- coldtea 10y ago
  Well, let's hope it does. Other people need to get rich too.
- eva1984 10y ago
  In terms of GDP, US is about 20-25% of the globe. It is pretty significant, but I won't go too far to say it has domination.
  - davidmr 10y ago
    Well said. Domination isn't the right word; perhaps "importance to" rather than "domination of".

bilbo0s 10y ago

The number is 18%. That's how much of China's GDP is dependent on exports to the US. A significant paycut as it were, but hardly fatal. (If they were to stop exporting to us, it would hardly be a fatal blow to us either. There is just not as much there in terms of percentage of GDP as everyone seems to think.)

seanmcdirmid 10y ago
They would have to cut off trade to much of the west as well, otherwise exports would simply be redirected. They could do USA did with Iran, and refuse to trade with anyone hat trades with the USA, but that is a losing proposition for them. Basically, china cuti off trade with the USA would be a North Korea style action.
harigov 10y ago
Does that include all the value created locally in order to be able to make those exports? Like food that people eat, vehicles that they have to drive, etc., That much drop in economic activity will surely trigger much worse outlook than you are alluding to.
witty_username 10y ago
No, not directly, but indirectly people would be afraid of further radical policy changes by China. Investors would move their money out of China. Or at least, that's what I'd do.