5 ms·

This is dandy and such, but it has a long, long way to go yet, still boasting the highest incarceration rates in the world: 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Un

by eth0up 10y ago

This is dandy and such, but it has a long, long way to go yet, still boasting the highest incarceration rates in the world: 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra... 2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/07/07/yes-u-s-locks-people-up-at-a-higher-rate-than-any-other-country/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/07/...

rhizome 10y ago
That's true, but the story is not that incarceration still exists, but to dispense with the argument that increased incarceration is necessary to reduce the crime rate.
- StavrosK 10y ago
  Or, rather, that reducing the sentence duration will not increase crime.
  - rhizome 10y ago
    I put sentence length and number of sentences in the general bucket of "incarceration volume."
    - StavrosK 10y ago
      I know, I'm just pointing out that the article said the opposite, ie not that longer sentences will lead to less crime, but that shorter sentences don't lead to more crime. Just picking nits.
      - rhizome 10y ago
        I think this is what the positive case of Poe's Law looks like.
- tertius 10y ago
  I would argue that there's a break even if you put those two variables in a bubble. I don't know who wouldn't.
jessaustin 10y ago
Perhaps a measure way out on the tail of a distribution can revert most of the way toward the mean without significantly affecting other, nonlinearly correlated measures? In that case, even the grimmest nightmares of racists and prison guard unions could still come to pass, just not yet...
rayiner 10y ago
The difference is a little less shocking when you adjust for crime rates. E.g. we have about 8-10x higher incarceration rate of Germany, but we also have more than 4x the murders per capita. (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Americans aren't very generous when it comes to crime. In many European countries, even murder carries only about a 10-15 year sentence. On the other hand, I wonder if that's a product of our situation. The United States is fantastically violent in comparison to Europe, and always has been: http://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-united-states-and-england-1900-2000-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg http://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicid.... E.g. Berlin is slightly bigger than Chicago. In a typical year, it might have 60-70 murders. Chicago in comparison had well over 700 this year. You can't look at the criminal justice system in the U.S. relative to our more enlightened European counterparts without keeping in mind that difference.
- filoeleven 10y ago
  > (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Did the incarceration rate for violent crime go up, or was it the total incarceration rate due to e.g. increased prosecution of drug arrests? If it's the former, then it's great that more violent criminals are being caught and sentenced, but if it's the latter then it's just compounding the problem.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - rayiner 10y ago
    Even if we released all drug prisoners, the incarceration rate would only be about 15% lower: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/releasing-drug-offenders-wont-end-mass-incarceration http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/releasing-drug-offenders-.... Meanwhile, it's about 6-7 times higher than what it was in the 1960s. Thus, almost all of that growth was not from drug offenses. It's not necessarily "great" that more violent criminals are being caught and sentenced. Many European countries manage just fine having e.g. 10-15 years maximum even for murder. Which is why I find the drug thing to be so frustrating. Drugs are not the major issue in the prison system. The real issue is whether just locking people up as a response to high crime rates actually works or not.

by eth0up 10y ago

rhizome 10y ago

That's true, but the story is not that incarceration still exists, but to dispense with the argument that increased incarceration is necessary to reduce the crime rate.

StavrosK 10y ago
Or, rather, that reducing the sentence duration will not increase crime.
- rhizome 10y ago
  I put sentence length and number of sentences in the general bucket of "incarceration volume."
  - StavrosK 10y ago
    I know, I'm just pointing out that the article said the opposite, ie not that longer sentences will lead to less crime, but that shorter sentences don't lead to more crime. Just picking nits.
    - rhizome 10y ago
      I think this is what the positive case of Poe's Law looks like.
tertius 10y ago
I would argue that there's a break even if you put those two variables in a bubble. I don't know who wouldn't.

jessaustin 10y ago

Perhaps a measure way out on the tail of a distribution can revert most of the way toward the mean without significantly affecting other, nonlinearly correlated measures? In that case, even the grimmest nightmares of racists and prison guard unions could still come to pass, just not yet...

rayiner 10y ago

The difference is a little less shocking when you adjust for crime rates. E.g. we have about 8-10x higher incarceration rate of Germany, but we also have more than 4x the murders per capita. (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Americans aren't very generous when it comes to crime. In many European countries, even murder carries only about a 10-15 year sentence. On the other hand, I wonder if that's a product of our situation. The United States is fantastically violent in comparison to Europe, and always has been: http://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-united-states-and-england-1900-2000-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg http://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicid.... E.g. Berlin is slightly bigger than Chicago. In a typical year, it might have 60-70 murders. Chicago in comparison had well over 700 this year. You can't look at the criminal justice system in the U.S. relative to our more enlightened European counterparts without keeping in mind that difference.

filoeleven 10y ago
> (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Did the incarceration rate for violent crime go up, or was it the total incarceration rate due to e.g. increased prosecution of drug arrests? If it's the former, then it's great that more violent criminals are being caught and sentenced, but if it's the latter then it's just compounding the problem.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- rayiner 10y ago
  Even if we released all drug prisoners, the incarceration rate would only be about 15% lower: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/releasing-drug-offenders-wont-end-mass-incarceration http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/releasing-drug-offenders-.... Meanwhile, it's about 6-7 times higher than what it was in the 1960s. Thus, almost all of that growth was not from drug offenses. It's not necessarily "great" that more violent criminals are being caught and sentenced. Many European countries manage just fine having e.g. 10-15 years maximum even for murder. Which is why I find the drug thing to be so frustrating. Drugs are not the major issue in the prison system. The real issue is whether just locking people up as a response to high crime rates actually works or not.