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"I personally believe we will see human/animal like general intelligence systems before 2020." What odds would you give me for that? If I agreed to pay you $10

"I personally believe we will see human/animal like general intelligence systems before 2020." What odds would you give me for that? If I agreed to pay you $100 in the event that we created human/animal-like general intelligence systems before 2020, how much would you agree to pay me in the event that we fail to do so?

ilaksh 10y ago
The problem is that there are a lot of things I would consider to be 'human/animal-like general intelligence' that you probably wouldn't.. especially if it came down to money. But for my purposes it would be something that could maybe get hints from virtual signs with simple words or phrases and then learn to do novel tasks in multiple complex 3d simulated environments where to some degree some learning was transferred. And then if it could also interact with virtual web pages on screens in those 3d worlds that had realistic use cases such as input forms, captchas, etc. Maybe we could even speak to it using language that a 3 year old would understand. I think by the end of 2019 this is quite likely. So say 2-to-1 odds. So if I win, I get $50, if you win, you get $100. But whether its a few years or a few decades, I truly believe that the human era is coming to an end. As in, regular people that don't have some sort of high-bandwidth brain interface to a contemporary AI, within not too many years, will be mainly irrelevant in the same way that many would consider chimpanzees to be irrelevant. At that point they will be technically transhumans, but the main drivers for our world will likely not be tied to human brains. Exactly when it will get to that point I don't know and don't think I want to bet. But my guess is before 2027.
- ajkjk 10y ago
  It blows my mind that you think the world could change that much in 10 years. I'd estimate the things you describe as happening maybe by 2100, if they're going to happen at all.

ilaksh 10y ago

The problem is that there are a lot of things I would consider to be 'human/animal-like general intelligence' that you probably wouldn't.. especially if it came down to money. But for my purposes it would be something that could maybe get hints from virtual signs with simple words or phrases and then learn to do novel tasks in multiple complex 3d simulated environments where to some degree some learning was transferred. And then if it could also interact with virtual web pages on screens in those 3d worlds that had realistic use cases such as input forms, captchas, etc. Maybe we could even speak to it using language that a 3 year old would understand. I think by the end of 2019 this is quite likely. So say 2-to-1 odds. So if I win, I get $50, if you win, you get $100. But whether its a few years or a few decades, I truly believe that the human era is coming to an end. As in, regular people that don't have some sort of high-bandwidth brain interface to a contemporary AI, within not too many years, will be mainly irrelevant in the same way that many would consider chimpanzees to be irrelevant. At that point they will be technically transhumans, but the main drivers for our world will likely not be tied to human brains. Exactly when it will get to that point I don't know and don't think I want to bet. But my guess is before 2027.

ajkjk 10y ago
It blows my mind that you think the world could change that much in 10 years. I'd estimate the things you describe as happening maybe by 2100, if they're going to happen at all.