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You're right, there isn't a lot of software in the solar panels themselves (they are indeed just a semiconductor). However, that's not where the costs are. Only

by diafygi 10y ago

You're right, there isn't a lot of software in the solar panels themselves (they are indeed just a semiconductor). However, that's not where the costs are. Only about 34% of the cost of a solar installation is actual hardware. 64% of the installed cost is customer acquisition, overhead, engineering, labor, etc[1]. These are all costs that can be optimized with software. For example, my startup focuses on automating the initial energy cost data collection for customers so they can get instant energy savings analyses. The customer acquisition gain we unlock shaves about 5-10% off of the overall installed cost of solar and energy efficiency products. Don't think of the solar industry as a technology problem. Think of it as a scaling problem. Scaling is all about software. [1]: https://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/soft-costs https://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/soft-costs

refulgentis 10y ago
Yeesh. Good luck.[1] [1]: https://www.google.com/get/sunroof#p=0 https://www.google.com/get/sunroof#p=0
- diafygi 10y ago
  Heh, Google Sunroof needs customer usage data, which is what we do :)
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
clay_to_n 10y ago
This is true, but software engineers often prefer to work in software-driven companies instead of companies where software is used to reduce costs. They feel valued more in co's where software is the main source of profit - this is the same reason a lot of software engineers aren't excited to work for the big companies in the (massive) retail industry, or infrastructure more generally, which also are "scaling problems". Solar has some appeal in that it has large long-term impact, and nerdy problems - but I think it's still less appealing generally than space, or maybe medicine, let alone tech companies where the core product is software.
- diafygi 10y ago
  Hmmm, it really depends on the company. Many newer energy companies have recognized that software is a profit center. Something like half of solar leads are referrals from existing solar customers, so there's a ton of effort put into good customer experience (pre and post installation) to drive more referrals. Also, many firms are wanting to offer grid services (demand response, load smoothing, etc.) back to the grid, which also is potential profit driven by software. I think you'd be surprised at how much importance is placed at the larger firms on software. Also, for smaller shops that can't afford their own programmers, there's vendors who sell the software to do all the analysis, financing, engineering, etc. Those cleantech software vendors obviously see software as the profit center (my startup is one such example). And solar is like HVAC in that there's thousands and thousands of smaller local shops in addition to the half-dozen nation brands, so lots of customers for SaaS providers.
tachyonbeam 10y ago
Batteries are still a huge cost. To be truly off-grid, you need a lot of storage capacity. You could easily spend 2 to 4x as much on batteries as on PV panels right now. The cost of batteries (or other energy storage methods) needs to go down, because PV panels on their own are just not quite good enough for residential. I'm out of the house during most or all peak hours for solar generation. I would need one or two Tesla Powerwall 2's in order to be off-grid. I also don't have an (electric) car. If I had a car, I would need more energy storage in order to be able to charge the car at night. Though of course, electric cars might also be charged at work during the daytime, directly from PV panels
- diafygi 10y ago
  The goal of the storage industry is not to take everyone off grid. The goal is to increase the penetration capacity of intermittent renewables. You can get to 50% penetration without storage, but you need demand response and storage to push beyond 50%. So, most storage isn't priced to be off-grid, it's priced to provide the most value to the consumer (demand response, peak shaving, backup power, etc.). At the end of the day it's all about economics, and there's lots of economics in favor of connected storage in addition to off-grid storage.
planteen 10y ago
> Think of it as a scaling problem. Scaling is all about software. Interesting. But to me, solar feels like a utility (water, sewer, power, gas), which scaled before digital computers or software.

by diafygi 10y ago

refulgentis 10y ago

Yeesh. Good luck.[1] [1]: https://www.google.com/get/sunroof#p=0 https://www.google.com/get/sunroof#p=0

diafygi 10y ago
Heh, Google Sunroof needs customer usage data, which is what we do :)

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

clay_to_n 10y ago

This is true, but software engineers often prefer to work in software-driven companies instead of companies where software is used to reduce costs. They feel valued more in co's where software is the main source of profit - this is the same reason a lot of software engineers aren't excited to work for the big companies in the (massive) retail industry, or infrastructure more generally, which also are "scaling problems". Solar has some appeal in that it has large long-term impact, and nerdy problems - but I think it's still less appealing generally than space, or maybe medicine, let alone tech companies where the core product is software.

diafygi 10y ago
Hmmm, it really depends on the company. Many newer energy companies have recognized that software is a profit center. Something like half of solar leads are referrals from existing solar customers, so there's a ton of effort put into good customer experience (pre and post installation) to drive more referrals. Also, many firms are wanting to offer grid services (demand response, load smoothing, etc.) back to the grid, which also is potential profit driven by software. I think you'd be surprised at how much importance is placed at the larger firms on software. Also, for smaller shops that can't afford their own programmers, there's vendors who sell the software to do all the analysis, financing, engineering, etc. Those cleantech software vendors obviously see software as the profit center (my startup is one such example). And solar is like HVAC in that there's thousands and thousands of smaller local shops in addition to the half-dozen nation brands, so lots of customers for SaaS providers.

tachyonbeam 10y ago

Batteries are still a huge cost. To be truly off-grid, you need a lot of storage capacity. You could easily spend 2 to 4x as much on batteries as on PV panels right now. The cost of batteries (or other energy storage methods) needs to go down, because PV panels on their own are just not quite good enough for residential. I'm out of the house during most or all peak hours for solar generation. I would need one or two Tesla Powerwall 2's in order to be off-grid. I also don't have an (electric) car. If I had a car, I would need more energy storage in order to be able to charge the car at night. Though of course, electric cars might also be charged at work during the daytime, directly from PV panels

diafygi 10y ago
The goal of the storage industry is not to take everyone off grid. The goal is to increase the penetration capacity of intermittent renewables. You can get to 50% penetration without storage, but you need demand response and storage to push beyond 50%. So, most storage isn't priced to be off-grid, it's priced to provide the most value to the consumer (demand response, peak shaving, backup power, etc.). At the end of the day it's all about economics, and there's lots of economics in favor of connected storage in addition to off-grid storage.

planteen 10y ago

> Think of it as a scaling problem. Scaling is all about software. Interesting. But to me, solar feels like a utility (water, sewer, power, gas), which scaled before digital computers or software.