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The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global ec

The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global economy is stagnating. The efficiency gains in the next decade are expected to be a few times the rate of market growth which would put many people out of work making the global market contract further. This cycle could accelerate very quickly. reply

api 10y ago
This is the real problem. While it may be good ecologically for population growth to slow and then reverse, it will lead to what I've long called "planet Japan."
- ianai 10y ago
  What do you mean by "Planet Japan"?
  - the_duke 10y ago
    Japan has second oldest population world-wide with 27.28% over 65, after Monaco, which doesn't really count (retirement home for rich people). http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a01001/ http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a01001/
    - api 10y ago
      ... and economic stagnation. It's basically a permanent liquidity trap.
      - lhopki01 10y ago
        If you adjust GDP for population growth Japan is actually doing quite well. The fact that it has a growing economy and a shrinking population shows that productivity is going up. Countries like the US have historically had high population growth which is reflected in higher GDP growth.
        api 10y ago
        No issue there. The problem is that this completely breaks all modern finance, which is built on the assumption of permanent macroeconomic growth to deliver returns and permanent inflation to continuously re-price debt.
- adrianN 10y ago
  Life in Japan is pretty nice though. You don't need economic growth if the population isn't growing.
edblarney 10y ago
"Where as today the global economy is stagnating." The global economy is in good shape. Western economies are stagnating - but there are 5 billion people who were not even on the economic radar just 50 years ago. They were earning basically 'nothing'. But now they are earning 'something' and it's growing fast. There are more than 40 countries with growth over 5% GDP growth in 2015. [1] There are 5 billion people who need: electricity, clothes, cars, tv, entertainment, sports, medicine etc. etc.. So, no. As prices fall, and globalization expands - all those products and services become accessible to these countries. And what happens when they get reliable electricity? Governance? Consistent internet access? Their productivity goes up and they can afford to buy more. Viewed from a 'modern world perspective' - I would be concerned, we are going to have to 'find new jobs' for a lot of people - but from a global perspective, the picture is mostly positive. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
- xbmcuser 10y ago
  The top 15 economies in the world are 75% of the world economy. Most are in the West. The growth of the other 25% is not going to help much if these 15 combined do not grow more than the efficiency gains from automation.
  - edblarney 10y ago
    "The top 15 economies in the world are 75% of the world economy. Most are in the West. The growth of the other 25% is not going to help much if these 15 combined do not grow more than the efficiency gains from automation." But they are not most of the population. We're talking about employment here. 5 billion people 'lives improving dramatically' vs. 2 billion people 'lives improving slowly' is a good equation. That those 2 billion are 'already wealthy' and a small uptick in their wealth increases the global GDP a little bit more is and odd way of looking at it. By that measure, we should be focusing on Gates and Zuckerbergs wealth more than anything else! The 'global GDP' is not the point here.
    - xbmcuser 10y ago

api 10y ago

This is the real problem. While it may be good ecologically for population growth to slow and then reverse, it will lead to what I've long called "planet Japan."

ianai 10y ago
What do you mean by "Planet Japan"?
- the_duke 10y ago
  Japan has second oldest population world-wide with 27.28% over 65, after Monaco, which doesn't really count (retirement home for rich people). http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a01001/ http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a01001/
  - api 10y ago
    ... and economic stagnation. It's basically a permanent liquidity trap.
    - lhopki01 10y ago
      If you adjust GDP for population growth Japan is actually doing quite well. The fact that it has a growing economy and a shrinking population shows that productivity is going up. Countries like the US have historically had high population growth which is reflected in higher GDP growth.
      - api 10y ago
        No issue there. The problem is that this completely breaks all modern finance, which is built on the assumption of permanent macroeconomic growth to deliver returns and permanent inflation to continuously re-price debt.
adrianN 10y ago
Life in Japan is pretty nice though. You don't need economic growth if the population isn't growing.

edblarney 10y ago

"Where as today the global economy is stagnating." The global economy is in good shape. Western economies are stagnating - but there are 5 billion people who were not even on the economic radar just 50 years ago. They were earning basically 'nothing'. But now they are earning 'something' and it's growing fast. There are more than 40 countries with growth over 5% GDP growth in 2015. [1] There are 5 billion people who need: electricity, clothes, cars, tv, entertainment, sports, medicine etc. etc.. So, no. As prices fall, and globalization expands - all those products and services become accessible to these countries. And what happens when they get reliable electricity? Governance? Consistent internet access? Their productivity goes up and they can afford to buy more. Viewed from a 'modern world perspective' - I would be concerned, we are going to have to 'find new jobs' for a lot of people - but from a global perspective, the picture is mostly positive. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...

xbmcuser 10y ago
The top 15 economies in the world are 75% of the world economy. Most are in the West. The growth of the other 25% is not going to help much if these 15 combined do not grow more than the efficiency gains from automation.
- edblarney 10y ago
  "The top 15 economies in the world are 75% of the world economy. Most are in the West. The growth of the other 25% is not going to help much if these 15 combined do not grow more than the efficiency gains from automation." But they are not most of the population. We're talking about employment here. 5 billion people 'lives improving dramatically' vs. 2 billion people 'lives improving slowly' is a good equation. That those 2 billion are 'already wealthy' and a small uptick in their wealth increases the global GDP a little bit more is and odd way of looking at it. By that measure, we should be focusing on Gates and Zuckerbergs wealth more than anything else! The 'global GDP' is not the point here.
  - xbmcuser 10y ago