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The chance that we are going to have an unexpected climate change acceleration is growing uncomfortably large. Given recent political trends, the space of poss

by Gatsky 10y ago

The chance that we are going to have an unexpected climate change acceleration is growing uncomfortably large. Given recent political trends, the space of possible solutions is getting narrower and narrower. I would say that only a major technological advance will save us now.

ghshephard 10y ago
Unexpected? Climate scientists been harping on that risk for the last 25 years. The chance that we are going to have a broadly discussed climate change acceleration is certainly growing - but I doubt even climate change skeptics would suggest that it was unexpected.
- Broken_Hippo 10y ago
  More like 100+ years. We've known about this for a really long time. http://www.snopes.com/1912-article-global-warming/ http://www.snopes.com/1912-article-global-warming/
  - lamontcg 10y ago
    Up until the 1950s though it was thought that water vapor saturation of the IR absorption lines would nullify any effect of increasing CO2 concentrations. It wasn't until the USAF started doing careful analysis of the upper atmosphere that it was discovered that the upper atmosphere is dry enough that increasing concentrations of CO2 there will act like throwing a warm blanket around the planet and that the sea-level saturation of H2O wouldn't matter.
- brbrodude 10y ago
  Unexpected by most. The 'problem' is known, the consequences, I'm pretty sure, are not something most people have taken in consideration, plus, it's unimaginable how much can go wrong. Shit, now I'm depressed.
- mikro2nd 10y ago
  25 years? "Limits to Growth" was published in 1974 iirc.
agumonkey 10y ago
Reading this I now wonder, climate change might be impossible to slow (it was already impossible to revert in a tangible timeframe IIUC), governments might try to spend money in finding ways to cope with warming consequences ?
- noiv 10y ago
  That's not really an option: As long as we pump CO2 into the atmosphere climate keeps changing and at some point you just run out of money if it's spend on consequences. And at that point the problem is still there. The Montreal Protocol is quite successful in repairing the ozone layer. It is not like we always failed rolling back industrial missteps.
  - agumonkey 10y ago
    Isn't the CO2 density issue far larger than the Ozone layer holes ? I've never seen it mentionned, so I assumed that "fixing" the CO2 issue was not possible yet, and that we would only stop emission as much as possible hoping the system not to tilt out of balance.
    - restalis 10y ago
      "Isn't the CO2 density issue far larger than the Ozone layer holes ?" The Ozone layer affects us directly on anatomical level. The rising quotient of atmospheric CO₂ will affect us more economically than in other ways. "«fixing» the CO2 issue was not possible yet, and that we would only stop emission as much as possible hoping the system not to tilt out of balance" The system will most likely "tilt out of balance" as the mere stopping of all CO₂ emissions won't stop the current self-evolving situation. The Arctic, Antarctic, and other regions that still have ice-sheets will melt simply due to risen global temperature. This it itself will cause a further rise in global temperature. Then, again due to global temperature increase, there are significant reserves of methane trapped in shallow layers of permafrost that are at risk of getting released into the atmosphere. Methane will enhance the current green-house effect as it does a much better job than CO₂ in this regard. In conclusion, we are, how the Chinese say, "living interesting times"!
tbrownaw 10y ago
The chance that we are going to have an unexpected climate change acceleration is growing uncomfortably large. Doesn't that by definition make it not unexpected?

by Gatsky 10y ago

ghshephard 10y ago

Unexpected? Climate scientists been harping on that risk for the last 25 years. The chance that we are going to have a broadly discussed climate change acceleration is certainly growing - but I doubt even climate change skeptics would suggest that it was unexpected.

Broken_Hippo 10y ago
More like 100+ years. We've known about this for a really long time. http://www.snopes.com/1912-article-global-warming/ http://www.snopes.com/1912-article-global-warming/
- lamontcg 10y ago
  Up until the 1950s though it was thought that water vapor saturation of the IR absorption lines would nullify any effect of increasing CO2 concentrations. It wasn't until the USAF started doing careful analysis of the upper atmosphere that it was discovered that the upper atmosphere is dry enough that increasing concentrations of CO2 there will act like throwing a warm blanket around the planet and that the sea-level saturation of H2O wouldn't matter.
brbrodude 10y ago
Unexpected by most. The 'problem' is known, the consequences, I'm pretty sure, are not something most people have taken in consideration, plus, it's unimaginable how much can go wrong. Shit, now I'm depressed.
mikro2nd 10y ago
25 years? "Limits to Growth" was published in 1974 iirc.

agumonkey 10y ago

Reading this I now wonder, climate change might be impossible to slow (it was already impossible to revert in a tangible timeframe IIUC), governments might try to spend money in finding ways to cope with warming consequences ?

noiv 10y ago
That's not really an option: As long as we pump CO2 into the atmosphere climate keeps changing and at some point you just run out of money if it's spend on consequences. And at that point the problem is still there. The Montreal Protocol is quite successful in repairing the ozone layer. It is not like we always failed rolling back industrial missteps.
- agumonkey 10y ago
  Isn't the CO2 density issue far larger than the Ozone layer holes ? I've never seen it mentionned, so I assumed that "fixing" the CO2 issue was not possible yet, and that we would only stop emission as much as possible hoping the system not to tilt out of balance.
  - restalis 10y ago
    "Isn't the CO2 density issue far larger than the Ozone layer holes ?" The Ozone layer affects us directly on anatomical level. The rising quotient of atmospheric CO₂ will affect us more economically than in other ways. "«fixing» the CO2 issue was not possible yet, and that we would only stop emission as much as possible hoping the system not to tilt out of balance" The system will most likely "tilt out of balance" as the mere stopping of all CO₂ emissions won't stop the current self-evolving situation. The Arctic, Antarctic, and other regions that still have ice-sheets will melt simply due to risen global temperature. This it itself will cause a further rise in global temperature. Then, again due to global temperature increase, there are significant reserves of methane trapped in shallow layers of permafrost that are at risk of getting released into the atmosphere. Methane will enhance the current green-house effect as it does a much better job than CO₂ in this regard. In conclusion, we are, how the Chinese say, "living interesting times"!

tbrownaw 10y ago

The chance that we are going to have an unexpected climate change acceleration is growing uncomfortably large. Doesn't that by definition make it not unexpected?