5 ms·

a whole industry of workers will be out of the job. How will society react? Will we have a socialist revolt? Want to stay clear from politics... but seriously w

a whole industry of workers will be out of the job. How will society react? Will we have a socialist revolt? Want to stay clear from politics... but seriously why isn't anyone talking about the socioeconomic impact this will have once drivers are put out of the job? IMHO this is the reason Trump won the election, because there is no plan for these people.

virmundi 10y ago
There are plenty of conversations around that idea here. UBI for example. Some people think that the population in general will retool (some will get left behind). Others point to the horse population in the US that went from some 5 million to a few hundred thousand following mechanized transportation as an example of what will happen to the middle class.
- Florin_Andrei 10y ago
  "Retooling" sounds like such a great idea when you're a 20-something urban male single software engineer, you've got nothing to lose, and the world is yours to take. It also sounds like a great idea when you're independently wealthy and you don't have to work for a living, so you can afford to bloviate from your ivory tower. Most other demographics have very a different perspective on that concept, and for good reason. There will be cataclysmic changes ahead if we don't seriously reconsider, well, everything about society. Under the current way of thinking, millions of people will get sent to the glue factory - to persist in your horse analogy here.
  - virmundi 10y ago
    I'm with you entirely. I have no idea how to solve this problem. My cousin's husband is a truck driver. He makes a six figure income running between Indy and Chicago (bang, bang). He's going to retire before they can get rid of him, but this is a huge issue. I tried to explain this problem to my father, who's a CPA. I've pointed out that his firm can get by with a dramatically smaller office than it use to due to tech. Same's true for his lawyer friends. I pointed out that the law firms are not training the next generation like they use to since they use fewer low-level lawyers for research thanks to Lexus Nexus. Account is next. I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. We've seen such enslavement in the US under welfare programs. We've set the program up to lock people in. If they try to get out, they will lose benefits (donut hole issue). I think UBI is like that, but worse.
    - astrange 10y ago
      A UBI should be universal, so you can't lose benefits - it's only as bad as how you become slightly less rich when your income goes up under progressive taxation. The closest real problem I can think of is not being able to move to a $15/hr minimum wage city from a poor area because you don't have the starting capital to buy the basics there.
    - antisthenes 10y ago
      > I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. We've seen such enslavement in the US under welfare programs. We've set the program up to lock people in. If they try to get out, they will lose benefits (donut hole issue). I think UBI is like that, but worse. Bad policy structuring, because welfare programs are legacy programs and were designed when Economics was still in its infancy. Also keep in mind that the welfare population is a minority. It's similar to the bank anecdote - if you owe the bank $1000, you have a problem, if you owe the bank $10,000,000, the bank has a problem. When tens of millions of people in a country with gun ownership depend on UBI - any government structure that tries to reduce benefits or eliminate it will become a target of the masses.
    - Florin_Andrei 10y ago
      > I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. When America will be able to shake off its own mythology about this notion of the "State" as an inherently bad actor - then, perhaps, America will be able to get out of the current rut it's stuck in. Yes, the "State" can be bad (I should know, I grew up in an actual bad "State" in the Eastern Bloc before the revolutions). But at the other extreme, societies can sabotage themselves from within, trigger the social equivalent of an autoimmune disease, and collapse from endemic distrust in the system - which to me is pretty clearly the direction America is going now. There surely is a better middle ground somewhere.
      - ams6110 10y ago
        America was founded on the notion that the state is a bad actor.
- ryandrake 10y ago
  Won't happen in the USA. Due to our puritanical obsession with "earning" a living through labor, we'll never see Basic Income. It would be more politically do-able to pay 1/2 the people to dig holes and the other 1/2 to fill them in, than to implement a sensible UBI system.
  - virmundi 10y ago
    What I don't get, even now, is the lack of public works. Digging a ditch and then filling it is dumb. Why not have individuals on welfare work cleaning out the forests in California? Playing a role in sensible land management implements? There are many places that the unused labor could benefit the people. At least then there is a work/trade for the money. In the end, those people get life lessons that would benefit them in the workplace.
    - nradov 10y ago
      Right. Instead of just giving people money our governments at federal / state / local levels should become employers of last resort for everyone who has exhausted their welfare or unemployment benefits. Guarantee 30 hours / week at minimum wage to anyone who wants to work. Even if it's just trail maintenance or graffiti cleanup they will at least be maintaining basic employment skills, and have enough spare time to retrain for something better.
rorykoehler 10y ago
Musk is talking about Universal Basic Income regularly. I also can't really see any other way this will pan out.
nickik 10y ago
What? Everybody is constantly talking about it. I have heared almost as much about that, compared to the actual technology. The answer is of course the same as with any other reason people lose jobs and have done so in the past. It really is nothing new. Neither in scale, nor in severity. Also, every state already has system to deal with that stuff. The hole point of a generalised systems is that you don't have a major political crisis everytime insert <big company or industy> suffers job loses. That Trump won because of them is an assertion that is made often, but hard to proove or even show good evidence for.
briandear 10y ago
What happened when cars were first invented? What happened when interchangeable parts were invented? Every time some new tech gets close to being revolutionary, the same sky-will-fall arguments get repeated. New markets are created, new industries develop; the economy continues to grow and worldwide poverty continues to drop.
limeyx 10y ago
And what is Trumps so special plan for them I wonder ?
erikpukinskis 10y ago
Why would it be different than previous instances of whole industries being out of a job? There was no revolt when the US shipped manufacturing overseas.

virmundi 10y ago

There are plenty of conversations around that idea here. UBI for example. Some people think that the population in general will retool (some will get left behind). Others point to the horse population in the US that went from some 5 million to a few hundred thousand following mechanized transportation as an example of what will happen to the middle class.

Florin_Andrei 10y ago
"Retooling" sounds like such a great idea when you're a 20-something urban male single software engineer, you've got nothing to lose, and the world is yours to take. It also sounds like a great idea when you're independently wealthy and you don't have to work for a living, so you can afford to bloviate from your ivory tower. Most other demographics have very a different perspective on that concept, and for good reason. There will be cataclysmic changes ahead if we don't seriously reconsider, well, everything about society. Under the current way of thinking, millions of people will get sent to the glue factory - to persist in your horse analogy here.
- virmundi 10y ago
  I'm with you entirely. I have no idea how to solve this problem. My cousin's husband is a truck driver. He makes a six figure income running between Indy and Chicago (bang, bang). He's going to retire before they can get rid of him, but this is a huge issue. I tried to explain this problem to my father, who's a CPA. I've pointed out that his firm can get by with a dramatically smaller office than it use to due to tech. Same's true for his lawyer friends. I pointed out that the law firms are not training the next generation like they use to since they use fewer low-level lawyers for research thanks to Lexus Nexus. Account is next. I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. We've seen such enslavement in the US under welfare programs. We've set the program up to lock people in. If they try to get out, they will lose benefits (donut hole issue). I think UBI is like that, but worse.
  - astrange 10y ago
    A UBI should be universal, so you can't lose benefits - it's only as bad as how you become slightly less rich when your income goes up under progressive taxation. The closest real problem I can think of is not being able to move to a $15/hr minimum wage city from a poor area because you don't have the starting capital to buy the basics there.
  - antisthenes 10y ago
    > I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. We've seen such enslavement in the US under welfare programs. We've set the program up to lock people in. If they try to get out, they will lose benefits (donut hole issue). I think UBI is like that, but worse. Bad policy structuring, because welfare programs are legacy programs and were designed when Economics was still in its infancy. Also keep in mind that the welfare population is a minority. It's similar to the bank anecdote - if you owe the bank $1000, you have a problem, if you owe the bank $10,000,000, the bank has a problem. When tens of millions of people in a country with gun ownership depend on UBI - any government structure that tries to reduce benefits or eliminate it will become a target of the masses.
  - Florin_Andrei 10y ago
    > I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. When America will be able to shake off its own mythology about this notion of the "State" as an inherently bad actor - then, perhaps, America will be able to get out of the current rut it's stuck in. Yes, the "State" can be bad (I should know, I grew up in an actual bad "State" in the Eastern Bloc before the revolutions). But at the other extreme, societies can sabotage themselves from within, trigger the social equivalent of an autoimmune disease, and collapse from endemic distrust in the system - which to me is pretty clearly the direction America is going now. There surely is a better middle ground somewhere.
    - ams6110 10y ago
      America was founded on the notion that the state is a bad actor.
ryandrake 10y ago
Won't happen in the USA. Due to our puritanical obsession with "earning" a living through labor, we'll never see Basic Income. It would be more politically do-able to pay 1/2 the people to dig holes and the other 1/2 to fill them in, than to implement a sensible UBI system.
- virmundi 10y ago
  What I don't get, even now, is the lack of public works. Digging a ditch and then filling it is dumb. Why not have individuals on welfare work cleaning out the forests in California? Playing a role in sensible land management implements? There are many places that the unused labor could benefit the people. At least then there is a work/trade for the money. In the end, those people get life lessons that would benefit them in the workplace.
  - nradov 10y ago
    Right. Instead of just giving people money our governments at federal / state / local levels should become employers of last resort for everyone who has exhausted their welfare or unemployment benefits. Guarantee 30 hours / week at minimum wage to anyone who wants to work. Even if it's just trail maintenance or graffiti cleanup they will at least be maintaining basic employment skills, and have enough spare time to retrain for something better.

rorykoehler 10y ago

Musk is talking about Universal Basic Income regularly. I also can't really see any other way this will pan out.

nickik 10y ago

What? Everybody is constantly talking about it. I have heared almost as much about that, compared to the actual technology. The answer is of course the same as with any other reason people lose jobs and have done so in the past. It really is nothing new. Neither in scale, nor in severity. Also, every state already has system to deal with that stuff. The hole point of a generalised systems is that you don't have a major political crisis everytime insert <big company or industy> suffers job loses. That Trump won because of them is an assertion that is made often, but hard to proove or even show good evidence for.

briandear 10y ago

What happened when cars were first invented? What happened when interchangeable parts were invented? Every time some new tech gets close to being revolutionary, the same sky-will-fall arguments get repeated. New markets are created, new industries develop; the economy continues to grow and worldwide poverty continues to drop.

limeyx 10y ago

And what is Trumps so special plan for them I wonder ?

erikpukinskis 10y ago

Why would it be different than previous instances of whole industries being out of a job? There was no revolt when the US shipped manufacturing overseas.