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When it comes to catching the next big wave, an Apple Watch with cellular connectivity may end up representing the single biggest game-changing device Apple has
by rsp1984 10y ago
When it comes to catching the next big wave, an Apple Watch with cellular connectivity may end up representing the single biggest game-changing device Apple has shipped since the original iPhone. It would be that big of a deal.
I don't think so. For that to happen there would have to be a quantum leap in user interfaces and right now I don't see any technology on the horizon that could provide that leap. Watch screens are too small for anything but displaying simplistic stuff, let alone letting the user meaningfully and fluidly control the device.
Voice interfaces have been tried for decades. They mostly failed. People are comfortable with them in very private environments (e.g. cars) but not when others are around (for good reason).
I think the author is right to conclude that Apple thinks we're still firmly in the smartphone era.
- JumpCrisscross 10y ago> I don't see any technology on the horizon that could provide that leap What about above-device "floating" gestures, e.g. Project Soli [1]. Gesturing above instead of on the device means much more space in which to do things. [1] https://atap.google.com/soli/ https://atap.google.com/soli/
- news_to_me 10y agoThe problem with "floating gestures" and the like is that they're even less tactile than touch screens, which I would argue is the biggest downside to touch interfaces. With the smartphone, the touch screen offered a ton of potential and flexibility, but I don't think the same can be said of "floating" gestures.
- erelde 10y agoOn the other hand the biggest downside to touch interfaces is that you're essentially always hiding what you're interacting with. If I could have floating gestures in front of my desktop I'd be very happy. Scrolling a page by waving my hand while leaning back in my seat. I think someone made something like this with Kinect.
- thefalcon 10y agoI just reached up and brushed back my hair. If this gesture also sent my screen scrolling, I'd be very sad.
- detaro 10y agoThat's more or less what you can get with a Leap Motion. Some issues with tracking quality, but for gestures it works. It's a lot harder to make good screen interactions in mid air than one might think, so I'm not convinced it's all that great for normal desktop use (Having virtual hands in VR is cool though!). It has been a while since I've used one and got to that opinion, and apparently software quality has gotten better. so if you are interested in this kind of thing it's maybe something to look into.
- arjie 10y agoGuaranteed Gorilla Arm. You'll rapidly tire of that UI paradigm.
- erelde 10y agoIt's about choice. Currently I lean back, cross my arms and hold a wireless mouse when I read long articles.
- Retra 10y agoYou want a trackpad?
- stephengillie 10y agoFloating gestures might have more success with Theremin-esque[0] audio feedback. Imagine an interface that hums when you put your hand near it, and also makes other interaction noises as you use it. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theremin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theremin
- TheOtherHobbes 10y agoNow imagine a train or a plane packed full of people using Theremin-esque humming devices. We're basically out of technology for the next innovation period. The truly "magical" next step is a direct neural interface, and we're an unknown number of years away from that. Nothing else can improve on the hand-sized touch screen. The alternatives all come with serious compromises. Voice is too loud and public, portable floating holographic displays haven't been invented yet and may suffer from privacy issues, and there's not much else available. In-eye projection is probably the most promising approach, but the product would have to be no heavier than existing glasses, and I can't imagine that being viable for five years at a minimum. A decade would be more realistic. We might have LCDs with holographic resolution by then, so all kinds of interesting things might be possible. But for now, hand-sized touch screens are as good as it gets - and will be for quite a while. Of course there's still a lot you can do with a small touch panel. There's huge scope to make software much, much better and smarter than it is today.
- erikpukinskis 10y agoImagine a train full of people with giant paper displays, flapping the paper, hearing crinkle and crumple each time they so much as flip a page! What a racket!
- kwhitefoot 10y ago> Now imagine a train or a plane packed full of people using Theremin-esque humming devices. Great opportunity for a jam session!
- rsp1984 10y agoYes, floating gestures are great and they do have potential but they don't solve the display problem.
- Retra 10y agoFloating gestures are great if you're not living in a world where the vast majority of your motions have nothing to do with controlling the device.
- aetherson 10y agoThe idea that cell connectivity on a watch is a good idea is just insane, for this reason: You're going to carry your phone with you anyway. Even if the phone did have a cell antenna and did have a battery good enough for it, and even if it had human-level natural language processing, you'll want a phone-sized screen for, you know, all the stuff that you use your phone for today, for examples including but certainly not limited to: reading anything longer than an SMS. Looking at a web page. Looking at a map. Playing games. Taking a photo. Showing pictures/video to other people. The idea that we'll give up on having screens big enough to actually look at things is just crazy. We love our phone screens. The one thing that people demonstrably want their phone screens to be is bigger. If you're going to be carrying a phone-sized screen with you 95%+ of the time anyway, why on earth would you make the expensive, difficult decision to jam a cell antenna into your watch. Much less all the valid points that people make about voice interfaces and battery and so forth.
- draw_down 10y agoNot if you're exercising, which is a big use case for the Apple Watch and other wearables.
- nradov 10y agoWhat kind of exercise? A modern smartphone is pretty light and easy to carry in all but the most extreme forms of activity. One of my friends takes her iPhone surfing.
- superuser2 10y agoRunning? I wear loose-fitting athletic shorts; a phone swinging around in my pocket is really annoying. I'd have to get an armband.
- nradov 10y agoArm bands are cheap, much less than a smart watch.
- ThomPete 10y agoIronically the apples watch sales are plummeting.
- mgiannopoulos 10y agoSource?
- grzm 10y agoLikely http://www.pcworld.com/article/230151/idc_windows_phones_to_overtake_iphone_ios_by_2015.html http://www.pcworld.com/article/230151/idc_windows_phones_to_... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13118890 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13118890
- mgiannopoulos 10y agoThat was some great piece of analysis :)
- moogly 10y ago71% YoY decline: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS41996116 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS41996116
- macintux 10y agoTim Cook disputes that assertion. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-watch-idUSKBN13V0BT http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-watch-idUSKBN13V0BT
- wruza 10y ago>People are comfortable with them in very private environments (e.g. cars) but not when others are around (for good reason). In movies and books they all have dental audiotransmitters, both in/out. Whisper to siri, no one will notice. Edit: if she will read messages and rss-like things to me only, I'll probably look at the screen much less often.
- pawadu 10y ago> Whisper to siri, no one will notice. no one including siri
- marze 10y agoIt is obvious Apple is headed for more and more autonomous watch functionality. A cellular radio would lie on this path. It doesn't need to match the functionality of a smartphone to be beneficial. But battery and power draw constraints put this two to five years out, depending on aggregate data needs.
- Skunkleton 10y agoEven worse, you can't use your watch one handed. No way around that.
- scentedmeat 10y agoWhat I would prefer is cellular connectivity in an iPad. Throw it in the backpack to use when I want a screen, but use watch/wireless headphones while walking around, or talking on the phone.
- lucaspiller 10y agoAll of the current iPads comes with cellular connectivity as an option. However, unlike Android devices they can't be used to make phone calls. I know it sounds a bit gimmicky (like using an iPad as a camera), but my father in law has a Galaxy Tab which is what he uses as a phone/tablet/computer. He just carries it wherever he goes.
- pjmlp 10y agoIt would help if they provided native language support, to start with. Forcing people to learn foreign languages to talk to their devices is not a good idea.
- CamperBob2 10y agoBattery technology alone will rule out putting a cellular modem in a watch.
- uptown 10y agoI think the gap the watch won't be able to fill is always having a camera with you. Having that in your pocket at all times has become essential. I know some watches have cameras but I think it may be awhile before a watch has both a cellular radio and a camera that matches the quality achieved by the iPhone.
- capex 10y ago> Watch screens are too small for anything but displaying simplistic stuff, let alone letting the user meaningfully and fluidly control the device. I wonder if you've seen the rotating bezel of Samsung gear s3 in action, it might change your mind. But the watch UI is not the bottleneck, the constant wearing of a watch is.
- rimantas 10y agoHow strange. Around me people without watches are exception not the rule.
- mark_l_watson 10y agoThanks for the reference to the Gear S3, I haven't seen that. I stopped wearing a watch 15 years ago but this might convince me to start again.
- pswenson 10y agoCell connectivity is a big deal and will increase its usefulness. But a watch can't replace a smartphone. There are core functions of a smartphone that a watch can never replace: typing, reading, camera... If you have paid attention, Apple has reduced the ambitions of the watch. It's targeted at health/fitness and notifications now.