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I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Petroleum production will go down as demand for gasoline will go down whi

I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Petroleum production will go down as demand for gasoline will go down while jet fuel demand will probably remain similar. So will that lead to a rise in jet fuel price?

joshaidan 10y ago
Or would it potentially increase the supply of Jet A (jet fuel), as less oil needs to be converted to automobile fuel.
- peterjlee 10y ago
  Is the refining process flexible enough to do that? I was under the impression that refining is more of a separation process so the amount of each petroleum product you get is already determined by the petroleum you have before you even start the process.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    There's all sorts of processes used to convert stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry)
  - hx87 10y ago
    You can crack the fuel to go from heavier to lighter grade, and use Fischer-Tropsch process to go the other way.
gizmo686 10y ago
Doubtful. Under basic economic theory, as demand goes down, so does price. The petroleum production that shuts down first will tend to be the most expensive production, causing a drop in the average cost, and price (we should see a similar effect in upstream products like crude). The main way this effect breaks down is if the market shrinks so much that we loose the economy of scale; but it seams unlikely demand will fall far enough for that to occur.
- zzleeper 10y ago
  That was not his point. When you extract oil, you don't really get a single product but multiple ones (heavy oils, lubricants, etc.) Before you might be selling lubricants cheaply, because after refinement you had lots of lubricants as a by-product. If you need less car fuel, this changes the cost equation and lubricants (and other byproducts) might become more expensive even if car fuel becomes cheaper.
mjevans 10y ago
Probably temporarily. It'll likely cross a point where more synthetic production methods reach economic viability. The field requires such a great energy density that I suspect only a remarkable breakthrough in energy density for weight would allow a fully electric solution. Hydrogen is also likely out as the storage cells would be under unimaginable stresses. In the long term it might actually incentivize the creation of moderate/high speed rail lines in the US.
- coredog64 10y ago
  Unless someone figures out how to bulldoze the Rocky mountain range, high speed rail as a replacement for coast to coast air travel is a non starter.
  - rm_-rf_slash 10y ago
    The real transit corridors are Boston-Atlanta and New York-Chicago, as well as Seattle-San Diego on the west coast. Coast to coast would be nice but even just those would be an enormous boost to our transport infrastructure and potentially a huge emissions cut (depending on where the power comes from).
    - Gibbon1 10y ago
      The high speed part of the California high speed rail is mostly to relieve congestion at the coastal airports. Idea being that passengers flying between the Bay Area and LA/San Diego will instead take the train. Hardest part of that is it'll require a number of tunnels, one 14 miles long, through the mountains into the LA Basin.
  - ojbyrne 10y ago
    I'm curious about why you think the Rocky Mountains would preclude this (as opposed to the distance, where ~ 500 mph via air vs. ~250 mph by train seems like a larger obstacle). Tunnels, and picking a relatively flat route seems to alleviate any concerns about the Rockies. A route roughly following the I-80 corridor would top out somewhere below 9000 ft[1]. The California high speed rail is already being designed for what I would guess are similar elevations (and perhaps steeper grades)[2]. You could also route through southern Arizona and New Mexico, completely avoiding significant mountains. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_80#Wyoming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_80#Wyoming 2. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/12/local/la-me-bullet-mountains-20121113 http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/12/local/la-me-bullet-m...
nickff 10y ago
Jet fuel is more similar to Diesel than gasoline. Different oil wells produce varying mixtures of fuels; I would expect 'sweet' (gasoline-rich) crude to decrease in price much more than heavier crudes, as the demand for the latter is likely to persist for longer, though we may also see shifts in the types of fuels being used.
drawkbox 10y ago
> Of the 7.13 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum product consumption in 2015, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel, 4% plastics.[1] Jet fuel is only 8% so if there is less auto usage, probably cheaper initially until supply is constrained due to lower demand. Then, other methods will start to get cheaper like wood to fuel[2]. But overall fuel and heating oil are about 70-80% of all oil use, we still use it for plastics which will be hard to get rid of which are 4% of usage. My guess is initially both jet fuel and plastic production prices will go down when autos are electric, at least initially. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=41&t=6 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=41&t=6 [2] http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/14/first-commercial-flight-wood-sourced-jet-fuel-alaska-airlines/ http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/14/first-commercial-flight...
user5994461 10y ago
If the price go down, people will travel more, increasing the demand and the price of oil. It's self-stabilizing.
Scoundreller 10y ago
> I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Probably the same thing that happened to coal, it just gets used elsewhere. Historically used for heating, trains and ships
mikeash 10y ago
You can see this at work already with gasoline for small planes, which commands a huge premium over automotive gasoline now. Around here, the cost is 2x higher or more. The premium used to be smaller, but when gas prices came down from their $4 high, avgas didn't really follow.
- hx87 10y ago
  87UL and 93UL aren't much more expensive than automotive gas, since it's pretty much the same thing. It's 100+ octane leaded gas that's expensive, and it'll stay that way until general aviation gets out of its carburetor & fixed timing rut and join the modern world of direct fuel injection and FADEC.
  - dsfyu404ed 10y ago
    Which will not happen quickly because FAA certification makes re-powering small aircraft expensive and strict maintenance requirements keeps half century old planes running
    - jabl 10y ago
      The're working on an unleaded 100 octane avgas: http://www.eaa.org/en/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-news/eaa-airventure-oshkosh/07-25-16-100ll-replacement-on-the-way http://www.eaa.org/en/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-mul...
  - mikeash 10y ago
    I didn't realize there was 87/93 avgas. What's the difference between that and what goes in cars?
    - hx87 10y ago
      Chemically, they're identical. They might be taxed differently though.
GregBuchholz 10y ago
Electric aircraft. https://machineroadmap.ece.illinois.edu/files/2016/04/Madavan.pdf https://machineroadmap.ece.illinois.edu/files/2016/04/Madava... http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0953-2048/20/8/005/meta;jsessionid=2E28965F7A1ED67F466C1735E93ADF85.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0953-2048/20/8/005...

joshaidan 10y ago

Or would it potentially increase the supply of Jet A (jet fuel), as less oil needs to be converted to automobile fuel.

peterjlee 10y ago
Is the refining process flexible enough to do that? I was under the impression that refining is more of a separation process so the amount of each petroleum product you get is already determined by the petroleum you have before you even start the process.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  There's all sorts of processes used to convert stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry)
- hx87 10y ago
  You can crack the fuel to go from heavier to lighter grade, and use Fischer-Tropsch process to go the other way.

gizmo686 10y ago

Doubtful. Under basic economic theory, as demand goes down, so does price. The petroleum production that shuts down first will tend to be the most expensive production, causing a drop in the average cost, and price (we should see a similar effect in upstream products like crude). The main way this effect breaks down is if the market shrinks so much that we loose the economy of scale; but it seams unlikely demand will fall far enough for that to occur.

zzleeper 10y ago
That was not his point. When you extract oil, you don't really get a single product but multiple ones (heavy oils, lubricants, etc.) Before you might be selling lubricants cheaply, because after refinement you had lots of lubricants as a by-product. If you need less car fuel, this changes the cost equation and lubricants (and other byproducts) might become more expensive even if car fuel becomes cheaper.

mjevans 10y ago

Probably temporarily. It'll likely cross a point where more synthetic production methods reach economic viability. The field requires such a great energy density that I suspect only a remarkable breakthrough in energy density for weight would allow a fully electric solution. Hydrogen is also likely out as the storage cells would be under unimaginable stresses. In the long term it might actually incentivize the creation of moderate/high speed rail lines in the US.

coredog64 10y ago
Unless someone figures out how to bulldoze the Rocky mountain range, high speed rail as a replacement for coast to coast air travel is a non starter.
- rm_-rf_slash 10y ago
  The real transit corridors are Boston-Atlanta and New York-Chicago, as well as Seattle-San Diego on the west coast. Coast to coast would be nice but even just those would be an enormous boost to our transport infrastructure and potentially a huge emissions cut (depending on where the power comes from).
  - Gibbon1 10y ago
    The high speed part of the California high speed rail is mostly to relieve congestion at the coastal airports. Idea being that passengers flying between the Bay Area and LA/San Diego will instead take the train. Hardest part of that is it'll require a number of tunnels, one 14 miles long, through the mountains into the LA Basin.
- ojbyrne 10y ago
  I'm curious about why you think the Rocky Mountains would preclude this (as opposed to the distance, where ~ 500 mph via air vs. ~250 mph by train seems like a larger obstacle). Tunnels, and picking a relatively flat route seems to alleviate any concerns about the Rockies. A route roughly following the I-80 corridor would top out somewhere below 9000 ft[1]. The California high speed rail is already being designed for what I would guess are similar elevations (and perhaps steeper grades)[2]. You could also route through southern Arizona and New Mexico, completely avoiding significant mountains. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_80#Wyoming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_80#Wyoming 2. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/12/local/la-me-bullet-mountains-20121113 http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/12/local/la-me-bullet-m...

nickff 10y ago

Jet fuel is more similar to Diesel than gasoline. Different oil wells produce varying mixtures of fuels; I would expect 'sweet' (gasoline-rich) crude to decrease in price much more than heavier crudes, as the demand for the latter is likely to persist for longer, though we may also see shifts in the types of fuels being used.

drawkbox 10y ago

> Of the 7.13 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum product consumption in 2015, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel, 4% plastics.[1] Jet fuel is only 8% so if there is less auto usage, probably cheaper initially until supply is constrained due to lower demand. Then, other methods will start to get cheaper like wood to fuel[2]. But overall fuel and heating oil are about 70-80% of all oil use, we still use it for plastics which will be hard to get rid of which are 4% of usage. My guess is initially both jet fuel and plastic production prices will go down when autos are electric, at least initially. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=41&t=6 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=41&t=6 [2] http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/14/first-commercial-flight-wood-sourced-jet-fuel-alaska-airlines/ http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/14/first-commercial-flight...

user5994461 10y ago

If the price go down, people will travel more, increasing the demand and the price of oil. It's self-stabilizing.

Scoundreller 10y ago

> I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Probably the same thing that happened to coal, it just gets used elsewhere. Historically used for heating, trains and ships

mikeash 10y ago

You can see this at work already with gasoline for small planes, which commands a huge premium over automotive gasoline now. Around here, the cost is 2x higher or more. The premium used to be smaller, but when gas prices came down from their $4 high, avgas didn't really follow.

hx87 10y ago
87UL and 93UL aren't much more expensive than automotive gas, since it's pretty much the same thing. It's 100+ octane leaded gas that's expensive, and it'll stay that way until general aviation gets out of its carburetor & fixed timing rut and join the modern world of direct fuel injection and FADEC.
- dsfyu404ed 10y ago
  Which will not happen quickly because FAA certification makes re-powering small aircraft expensive and strict maintenance requirements keeps half century old planes running
  - jabl 10y ago
    The're working on an unleaded 100 octane avgas: http://www.eaa.org/en/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-news/eaa-airventure-oshkosh/07-25-16-100ll-replacement-on-the-way http://www.eaa.org/en/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-mul...
- mikeash 10y ago
  I didn't realize there was 87/93 avgas. What's the difference between that and what goes in cars?
  - hx87 10y ago
    Chemically, they're identical. They might be taxed differently though.

GregBuchholz 10y ago

Electric aircraft. https://machineroadmap.ece.illinois.edu/files/2016/04/Madavan.pdf https://machineroadmap.ece.illinois.edu/files/2016/04/Madava... http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0953-2048/20/8/005/meta;jsessionid=2E28965F7A1ED67F466C1735E93ADF85.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0953-2048/20/8/005...