10 ms·

Global Markets, Initially Shaken, Edge Higher After Trump Victory

75 points by samsolomon 10y ago

tedunangst 10y ago
But I was promised the crash would teach Trump voters a lesson!
- sharemywin 10y ago
  Let's see how his trade wars versus his massive tax holidays play out. I think the market thinks he's bluffing on the trade wars.
  - gdulli 10y ago
    He's had so many contradictory positions and has so clearly made up certain positions solely to manipulate voters that no one really knows how he'll govern.
    - noobermin 10y ago
      Didn't stop him from getting elected.
      - gdulli 10y ago
        Right. I don't think Americans are upset because he's President so much as we're upset because we found out 60 million citizens of our country are people who in general would vote for an absolutely disgusting person who campaigned on transparent, trivially disproven lies and racist demagoguery.
        CocaKoala 10y ago
        This is what really bums me out. I have a lot of issues with the rhetoric of Donald Trump, and of the Republican Party in general. This is not what I want to have our presidential elections be, and I feel now that the lesson is "Lying constantly, being rude and temperamental and petty, campaigning on vague and meaningless statements that nobody expects you to hold WORKS and can win you elections." What happens in 2020, when Donald Trump runs for re-election? Is he going to temper his rhetoric and run a more moderate campaign that isn't based on falsehoods and insults, or is he going to double down on what's been established to work? I feel like the state of political discourse in the country has been severely changed, and I definitely don't think it's for the better.
      - gph 10y ago
        It might honestly come down to whether he wants to be elected to a second term. If he does he'll have to keep riding this populist wave somehow, and it'll either be through actual policy changes or somehow continuing to bullshit them with rhetoric. But if he doesn't care about getting a second term then all bets are off.
        sharemywin 10y ago
        He'll pass the massive tax cuts for the rich. It's a common business practice to cut out the middle man. Why pay for a politician when it's cheaper to just buy an election. The middle class tax cuts? Not sure, their is a deficit to think of. not sure how that would get through congress.
        komali2 10y ago
        It's a republican congress. They'll fall in line, or Trump will just Tweet "Representative John Doe doesn't support my TAX CUTS! SAD!" and end another career.
      - bsder 10y ago
        I fear this lesson will now dominate an entire generation of politicians.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    Or that the Republicans won't support his plans for changing trade deals
- eva1984 10y ago
  Yep, if Trump talks about his prepared trade war with China, e.g. raising tariff by 45%, of cause there is going to be a crash. Looking at the market hanging on betting Trump won't do what he says is really funny.
chollida1 10y ago
Two points come to mind here, wrt the markets. 1) All the volatility happened in the after hours. If you just ignored the markets when they were closed, today you are pleasantly surprised, assuming you are the typical long only investor. Don't watch the markets, especially in the after hours. Heck don't watch them on a day to day basis unless its in your job description. Life is stressful enough that you don't need to watch what your google/amazon/etc RSU's will be worth on a daily basis. 2) There is an order type called stop loss. These were useful in the 90's but haven't really had a good use since about 2005. They allow a user to "lock in gains" or halt losses by being an order that is triggered if the markets hit a certain level. Essentially the order isn't live until its limit is crossed and then the order becomes valid. Unfortunately if markets move alot you can get your order hit to close our your position during a momentary drop or flash crash. Nowadays with market's more likely to have short term volatility stop loss orders aren't really an order type that anyone should use, ever. The NYSE and Nasdaq are doing away with these orders but alot of regular investors with self directed accounts have been brought up thinking that using a stop loss order is a good idea. it never is...ever. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-joining-nasdaq-in-eliminating-stop-orders-2015-11-18 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-joining-nasdaq-in-elim...
- pbreit 10y ago
  Re #1, but that was all "real" market activity, right? Was it mainly that overseas traders were just a lot more pessimistic?
  - matwood 10y ago
    It's real, but volume is typically much much lower so it tends to exaggerate in either direction. I stopped trading futures at night because lower volumes messed up my strategies.
    - pbreit 10y ago
      The volume on S&P and DJIA futures surely is sufficient to be legit?
  - 10y ago
Animats 10y ago
DJIA 18,502.47 ▲ 169.73 (0.93%) Last night DJIA futures dropped several hundred points, but that didn't translate to the actual stocks today.
- matt_wulfeck 10y ago
  They started paring losses almost immediately as he was making his victory speech, which was refreshingly magnanimous. I believe the markets wanted stability more than anything else. If he would have mentioned during his speech his desire to prosecute Hillary etc, I think that would have really affected the markets in a very bad way.
  - adamiscool8 10y ago
    But to write off his rhetoric and uncertainty on the artifical stock market, phony QE-driven economy, auditing the fed, protectionism, etc. on the way to new all-time highs? Perplexing.
return0 10y ago
The markets proved smart. In contrast to brexit, it seems they had a better hunch than the pollsters. Also, it seems Brexit is still more uncertainty to the markets than Trump.
- gph 10y ago
  Yea I understand that Trump is volatile and has talked about repealing Trade pacts, but he's still a billionaire republican that economically came of age in 1980s NYC. You'd think Wall Street would love him from that description.
  - matt_wulfeck 10y ago
    The Wall Street "elite" I think have mixed feelings toward him. On the one had he's against taxes and has vowed to remove some of the "worst" ones (estate tax, repatriation, etc). On the other hand he's been protectionist and not afraid to attack trade agreements that benefit large global corporations at the expense of American workers.
    - jerf 10y ago
      I've been wondering if, once the hot blood of electoral politics simmers down, HN will develop a more "nuanced" view of Trump. I absolutely agree that there are things the HN gestalt won't like about Trump, like protectionism and closing the borders, so acclamation is not on the table, but on the other hand, there are also absolutely things the HN gestalt will like such as opposition to TPP, and probably having a significantly higher chance of getting the Feds out of marijuana enforcement than you would have seen under Clinton. I also think there's a much greater chance that Trump will pull back on the military interventions that it seems like many people don't even realize we're currently participating in. (We actually have a lot of military "actions" going on right now.) Much of that probably depends on what he actually does, but much of that also depends on whether people look at what he actually does instead of what they're told about what he does.
      - matwood 10y ago
ddoran 10y ago
It's not all positive. Gun makers Smith Wesson [SWHC, -16.13%] and Sturm Ruger [RGR, -14.44%] down massively on the day as Trump supporters won't be rushing out to take arms against a Democrat government they refuse to recognize.
- mikeyouse 10y ago
  On the plus side, CCA (private prison company) is up 50% today.
  - komali2 10y ago
    Yay. :/
- gdulli 10y ago
  It's more likely due to this: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/gun-ballot-initiatives-passed http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/gun-ballot-initi...
  - h4nkoslo 10y ago
    Gun control is great for gun sales - California for instance is seeing an unprecedented boom in the run-up to their legislation kicking in on Jan 1. The lack of gun control legislation prospectively coming from a President Trump, as opposed to HRC's platform of re-enacting the assault weapons ban etc., is driving those stocks lower.
rdtsc 10y ago
Was watching NBC news last night (for entertainment, I added them to the "fun stations" list along with "Fox"). And it was funny how they were baffled and backpedaling hard on why Trump won, and they never expected it. However, one thing that seemed to make them happy was the stock markets. "Oh look, stocks are crashing worldwide" and they kept belaboring that point, as a validation in a way "see we warned you how bad Trump was" kind of sentiment. For example US Steel (X) jumped a whopping 20% since yesterday. Something tells me they probably won't be focusing on that. One wonders, does anyone there look around and say "What have we become? Are we just clowns here making stuff up? What if we actually tried to tell the truth, maybe just turn the spin level from 9 to a 3 and see what happens... as an experiment"
- danso 10y ago
  What's sad is we just experienced that with Brexit http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/brexit-two-months-on-markets-recover-but-political-uncertainty-lingers.html http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/brexit-two-months-on-markets-...
  - toddkazakov 10y ago
    I personally don't think the events can be compared. Brexit has a lot of (unknown) implications for the UK, due to the fact that it's not clear what deal they'll get from the EU. On the other had Trump being elected president is just a change of the president of the US. There's no immediate threat.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  > One wonders, does anyone there look around and say "What have we become? Are we just clowns here making stuff up?" Well, if it didn't become apparent when Russell Brand absolutely destroyed "Morning Joe" back in 2013, there's no saving them. https://youtu.be/mDCtFTyw6fI https://youtu.be/mDCtFTyw6fI
mlinksva 10y ago
Earlier indicator that traders expect higher volatility under Trump https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/what-do-financial-markets-think-of-the-2016-election_102016_wolferszitzewitz.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/what-do...
snikeris 10y ago
No discussion about what's going on with treasuries today?
- notirk 10y ago
  Could you expand for those not in the know?
  - shoover 10y ago
    There was a relatively large upward movement in yields today (and corresponding downward movement in price). I bought a few with cash on hand in the retirement and college savings accounts. From Google Finance: Bonds [yields] 3 Month 0.42% +0.02 (5.00%) 6 Month 0.53% +0.03 (6.00%) 2 Year 0.90% +0.07 (8.43%) 5 Year 1.48% +0.12 (8.82%) 10 Year 2.07% +0.12 (6.15%) 30 Year 2.86% +0.10 (3.62%)
    - illumin8 10y ago
      This is actually much more indicative of the economic direction the market thinks we will be headed in. Hint: it's not good. The bond market is extraordinarily efficient at pricing risk, and right now, they're beginning to price a significant risk of a long-term US default.
      - b_emery 10y ago
        So buyers of these things think interest rates will be lower in the future (eg due to poor economy and further stimulus perhaps?)
        shoover 10y ago
        Yes, or at least as insurance in case interest do go lower.
  - alecco 10y ago
    There is a selloff so the price is lower. Bonds pay an interest (in coupons). There is the face value (par). But you don't buy/sell bonds at face value, you buy them at market value. So what's interesting is the yield = coupon amount / market price (or just price). Relative to other bonds US treasuries are a lot less attractive today. http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/bonds3.asp http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/bonds3.asp http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y But the price is not that simple. Since bonds are paid periodically, the market price factors in the next coupon. Would you buy a bond at the same price 1 day before paying coupon than the day after? Of course not! So market price is called "dirty" because it has the next coupon implicitly considered. There are different ways to make it a "clean" price, depends on the country.
bjourne 10y ago
It's so silly that people still assign intent to stock market movements. Stocks go up when gamblers/speculators/investors think they will go up and down when they think they will go down. Didn't we learn anything from fucking yesterday when the markets indicated a clear victory for Clinton?
readhn 10y ago
The guy is a speculator first of all so the market understands him very well and he understands the market. He is not going to do anything stupid as he knows there will be immediate negative consequences. He is actually in a hard position now to deliver middle class America it's jobs without generating some short term pain first. Yeah block China and watch that toilet paper cost climb 2-3x and see how adorable things are now middle America. Yes kick out illegal workers and watch those tomatoes go for 10$ per pound. Its all bs fellas and it's bad for You.

75 points by samsolomon 10y ago

tedunangst 10y ago

But I was promised the crash would teach Trump voters a lesson!

sharemywin 10y ago
Let's see how his trade wars versus his massive tax holidays play out. I think the market thinks he's bluffing on the trade wars.
- gdulli 10y ago
  He's had so many contradictory positions and has so clearly made up certain positions solely to manipulate voters that no one really knows how he'll govern.
  - noobermin 10y ago
    Didn't stop him from getting elected.
    - gdulli 10y ago
      Right. I don't think Americans are upset because he's President so much as we're upset because we found out 60 million citizens of our country are people who in general would vote for an absolutely disgusting person who campaigned on transparent, trivially disproven lies and racist demagoguery.
      - CocaKoala 10y ago
        This is what really bums me out. I have a lot of issues with the rhetoric of Donald Trump, and of the Republican Party in general. This is not what I want to have our presidential elections be, and I feel now that the lesson is "Lying constantly, being rude and temperamental and petty, campaigning on vague and meaningless statements that nobody expects you to hold WORKS and can win you elections." What happens in 2020, when Donald Trump runs for re-election? Is he going to temper his rhetoric and run a more moderate campaign that isn't based on falsehoods and insults, or is he going to double down on what's been established to work? I feel like the state of political discourse in the country has been severely changed, and I definitely don't think it's for the better.
    - gph 10y ago
      It might honestly come down to whether he wants to be elected to a second term. If he does he'll have to keep riding this populist wave somehow, and it'll either be through actual policy changes or somehow continuing to bullshit them with rhetoric. But if he doesn't care about getting a second term then all bets are off.
      - sharemywin 10y ago
        He'll pass the massive tax cuts for the rich. It's a common business practice to cut out the middle man. Why pay for a politician when it's cheaper to just buy an election. The middle class tax cuts? Not sure, their is a deficit to think of. not sure how that would get through congress.
        komali2 10y ago
        It's a republican congress. They'll fall in line, or Trump will just Tweet "Representative John Doe doesn't support my TAX CUTS! SAD!" and end another career.
    - bsder 10y ago
      I fear this lesson will now dominate an entire generation of politicians.
- Tycho 10y ago
  Or that the Republicans won't support his plans for changing trade deals
eva1984 10y ago
Yep, if Trump talks about his prepared trade war with China, e.g. raising tariff by 45%, of cause there is going to be a crash. Looking at the market hanging on betting Trump won't do what he says is really funny.

chollida1 10y ago

Two points come to mind here, wrt the markets. 1) All the volatility happened in the after hours. If you just ignored the markets when they were closed, today you are pleasantly surprised, assuming you are the typical long only investor. Don't watch the markets, especially in the after hours. Heck don't watch them on a day to day basis unless its in your job description. Life is stressful enough that you don't need to watch what your google/amazon/etc RSU's will be worth on a daily basis. 2) There is an order type called stop loss. These were useful in the 90's but haven't really had a good use since about 2005. They allow a user to "lock in gains" or halt losses by being an order that is triggered if the markets hit a certain level. Essentially the order isn't live until its limit is crossed and then the order becomes valid. Unfortunately if markets move alot you can get your order hit to close our your position during a momentary drop or flash crash. Nowadays with market's more likely to have short term volatility stop loss orders aren't really an order type that anyone should use, ever. The NYSE and Nasdaq are doing away with these orders but alot of regular investors with self directed accounts have been brought up thinking that using a stop loss order is a good idea. it never is...ever. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-joining-nasdaq-in-eliminating-stop-orders-2015-11-18 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-joining-nasdaq-in-elim...

pbreit 10y ago
Re #1, but that was all "real" market activity, right? Was it mainly that overseas traders were just a lot more pessimistic?
- matwood 10y ago
  It's real, but volume is typically much much lower so it tends to exaggerate in either direction. I stopped trading futures at night because lower volumes messed up my strategies.
  - pbreit 10y ago
    The volume on S&P and DJIA futures surely is sufficient to be legit?
- 10y ago

Animats 10y ago

DJIA 18,502.47 ▲ 169.73 (0.93%) Last night DJIA futures dropped several hundred points, but that didn't translate to the actual stocks today.

matt_wulfeck 10y ago
They started paring losses almost immediately as he was making his victory speech, which was refreshingly magnanimous. I believe the markets wanted stability more than anything else. If he would have mentioned during his speech his desire to prosecute Hillary etc, I think that would have really affected the markets in a very bad way.
- adamiscool8 10y ago
  But to write off his rhetoric and uncertainty on the artifical stock market, phony QE-driven economy, auditing the fed, protectionism, etc. on the way to new all-time highs? Perplexing.

return0 10y ago

The markets proved smart. In contrast to brexit, it seems they had a better hunch than the pollsters. Also, it seems Brexit is still more uncertainty to the markets than Trump.

gph 10y ago
Yea I understand that Trump is volatile and has talked about repealing Trade pacts, but he's still a billionaire republican that economically came of age in 1980s NYC. You'd think Wall Street would love him from that description.
- matt_wulfeck 10y ago
  The Wall Street "elite" I think have mixed feelings toward him. On the one had he's against taxes and has vowed to remove some of the "worst" ones (estate tax, repatriation, etc). On the other hand he's been protectionist and not afraid to attack trade agreements that benefit large global corporations at the expense of American workers.
  - jerf 10y ago
    I've been wondering if, once the hot blood of electoral politics simmers down, HN will develop a more "nuanced" view of Trump. I absolutely agree that there are things the HN gestalt won't like about Trump, like protectionism and closing the borders, so acclamation is not on the table, but on the other hand, there are also absolutely things the HN gestalt will like such as opposition to TPP, and probably having a significantly higher chance of getting the Feds out of marijuana enforcement than you would have seen under Clinton. I also think there's a much greater chance that Trump will pull back on the military interventions that it seems like many people don't even realize we're currently participating in. (We actually have a lot of military "actions" going on right now.) Much of that probably depends on what he actually does, but much of that also depends on whether people look at what he actually does instead of what they're told about what he does.
    - matwood 10y ago

ddoran 10y ago

It's not all positive. Gun makers Smith Wesson [SWHC, -16.13%] and Sturm Ruger [RGR, -14.44%] down massively on the day as Trump supporters won't be rushing out to take arms against a Democrat government they refuse to recognize.

mikeyouse 10y ago
On the plus side, CCA (private prison company) is up 50% today.
- komali2 10y ago
  Yay. :/
gdulli 10y ago
It's more likely due to this: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/gun-ballot-initiatives-passed http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/gun-ballot-initi...
- h4nkoslo 10y ago
  Gun control is great for gun sales - California for instance is seeing an unprecedented boom in the run-up to their legislation kicking in on Jan 1. The lack of gun control legislation prospectively coming from a President Trump, as opposed to HRC's platform of re-enacting the assault weapons ban etc., is driving those stocks lower.

rdtsc 10y ago

Was watching NBC news last night (for entertainment, I added them to the "fun stations" list along with "Fox"). And it was funny how they were baffled and backpedaling hard on why Trump won, and they never expected it. However, one thing that seemed to make them happy was the stock markets. "Oh look, stocks are crashing worldwide" and they kept belaboring that point, as a validation in a way "see we warned you how bad Trump was" kind of sentiment. For example US Steel (X) jumped a whopping 20% since yesterday. Something tells me they probably won't be focusing on that. One wonders, does anyone there look around and say "What have we become? Are we just clowns here making stuff up? What if we actually tried to tell the truth, maybe just turn the spin level from 9 to a 3 and see what happens... as an experiment"

danso 10y ago
What's sad is we just experienced that with Brexit http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/brexit-two-months-on-markets-recover-but-political-uncertainty-lingers.html http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/brexit-two-months-on-markets-...
- toddkazakov 10y ago
  I personally don't think the events can be compared. Brexit has a lot of (unknown) implications for the UK, due to the fact that it's not clear what deal they'll get from the EU. On the other had Trump being elected president is just a change of the president of the US. There's no immediate threat.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
semi-extrinsic 10y ago
> One wonders, does anyone there look around and say "What have we become? Are we just clowns here making stuff up?" Well, if it didn't become apparent when Russell Brand absolutely destroyed "Morning Joe" back in 2013, there's no saving them. https://youtu.be/mDCtFTyw6fI https://youtu.be/mDCtFTyw6fI

mlinksva 10y ago

Earlier indicator that traders expect higher volatility under Trump https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/what-do-financial-markets-think-of-the-2016-election_102016_wolferszitzewitz.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/what-do...

snikeris 10y ago

No discussion about what's going on with treasuries today?

notirk 10y ago
Could you expand for those not in the know?
- shoover 10y ago
  There was a relatively large upward movement in yields today (and corresponding downward movement in price). I bought a few with cash on hand in the retirement and college savings accounts. From Google Finance: Bonds [yields] 3 Month 0.42% +0.02 (5.00%) 6 Month 0.53% +0.03 (6.00%) 2 Year 0.90% +0.07 (8.43%) 5 Year 1.48% +0.12 (8.82%) 10 Year 2.07% +0.12 (6.15%) 30 Year 2.86% +0.10 (3.62%)
  - illumin8 10y ago
    This is actually much more indicative of the economic direction the market thinks we will be headed in. Hint: it's not good. The bond market is extraordinarily efficient at pricing risk, and right now, they're beginning to price a significant risk of a long-term US default.
    - b_emery 10y ago
      So buyers of these things think interest rates will be lower in the future (eg due to poor economy and further stimulus perhaps?)
      - shoover 10y ago
        Yes, or at least as insurance in case interest do go lower.
- alecco 10y ago
  There is a selloff so the price is lower. Bonds pay an interest (in coupons). There is the face value (par). But you don't buy/sell bonds at face value, you buy them at market value. So what's interesting is the yield = coupon amount / market price (or just price). Relative to other bonds US treasuries are a lot less attractive today. http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/bonds3.asp http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/bonds3.asp http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y But the price is not that simple. Since bonds are paid periodically, the market price factors in the next coupon. Would you buy a bond at the same price 1 day before paying coupon than the day after? Of course not! So market price is called "dirty" because it has the next coupon implicitly considered. There are different ways to make it a "clean" price, depends on the country.

bjourne 10y ago

It's so silly that people still assign intent to stock market movements. Stocks go up when gamblers/speculators/investors think they will go up and down when they think they will go down. Didn't we learn anything from fucking yesterday when the markets indicated a clear victory for Clinton?

readhn 10y ago

The guy is a speculator first of all so the market understands him very well and he understands the market. He is not going to do anything stupid as he knows there will be immediate negative consequences. He is actually in a hard position now to deliver middle class America it's jobs without generating some short term pain first. Yeah block China and watch that toilet paper cost climb 2-3x and see how adorable things are now middle America. Yes kick out illegal workers and watch those tomatoes go for 10$ per pound. Its all bs fellas and it's bad for You.