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Real-Time Stock Indices Futures
- branchless 10y ago4% isn't much. Good site though, so thx.
- CydeWeys 10y agoIt is for the stock market.
- branchless 10y agoNo, it's not. It's a big jump for one day but it is election day so hardly a regular day. It was lower than this at the start of the year. How was life back then?
- revelation 10y agoBetter than tomorrow? This is the sneakiest way yet to bring politics to HN.
- branchless 10y agoI'm not partisan. I hate them both :-) But this absurd fetishism over drops has to stop. Look at the last year. People who baulk at these kind clearly haven't been watching the markets over the past few years. This stuff happens. Nobody posts about the jumps. And they add up. Well, here's a drop and it's left everyone in the black over 12 months. Long term if it tanks it tanks and then we can post about it. Markets are computerised now and big swings are common. Edit: last comment as I've hit the hacker news "you're submitting too fast on a banking thread" thing. Directed to the child comment (not pejorative): Last one according to the guy above was 2011. We have elections every 4 years and the banks crash the system now and again. 5 years back it was nearly half this. I fail to understand how a 5% dip is shocking, except for people feeling the sky is falling because Trump got in and want to scrawl supporting evidence. What was life like for all the HN downvoters when it was 1200?
- kasey_junk 10y agoSustained swings like this are not common. I'll agree short term number fetishism is a problem but this implies the markets were priced incorrectly and not in a good way.
- nkozyra 10y ago> I hate them both :-) Edgy.
- CydeWeys 10y agoThe last time the S&P 500 lost >= 4% in a single day was over five years ago, in August 2011. A 4% swing on the S&P 500 is clearly a lot.
- branchless 10y agomy word! 2011. Goodness, was anyone even alive back then? I didn't realise they even had markets that far back.
- af16090 10y agoThe percent the S&P 500 futures can fall before they stop trading is 5%[1]. So this is a big drop. [1]: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-sp-500-price-limits.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-sp-500-pric...
- branchless 10y agohow was life for you during the last 5 year walk from 1,200 to 2100? Appreciably better from 2,000 onwards? https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=%5EGSPC;range=5y https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=%5EGSP...
- branchless 10y agoHow's the market doing? Did you dump it all at the bottom?
- SeanAnderson 10y agoDoes the stock market traditionally drop around election time? Uncertainty is usually bad for the market, yeah?
- kasey_junk 10y agoThis kind of swing implies the outcome is unexpected and not well thought of.
- CydeWeys 10y agoNo, it doesn't traditionally drop -- it only drops when the "wrong" candidate wins (as determined by who the markets would prefer). It dropped because Trump's stated economic, trade, and diplomatic policies are anti-globalization and would be bad for business. The markets were riding lower for weeks on fears of Trump winning, then recovered yesterday when Hillary had that final uptick. Now they've lost all that and then some.
- gigatexal 10y agoThe vix shot up when Obama was projected to win
- brianlash 10y agoI'll be very interested to see whether this interpretation comes to bear. The more likely explanation, I think, is that something unexpected is happening, and markets don't like uncertainty. A little reductionist? Maybe. But maybe not.
- throwaway5752 10y agoNo. This is thoroughly uncharted territory. I guess a lot of ignorant, complacent people will see how important being a global reserve currency is to a national economy.
- slv77 10y agoBeing a global reserve currency is a boon during periods of inflation and a drag during periods of deflation. Given the economic environment since 2008 countries central banks have been fairly aggressively trying to weaken their currencies to stoke inflation and the "benefit" is more a "burden". The loss of our reserve status and the gradual divestiture of USD assets by foreign central banks would have the impact (if gradual) of raising long term borrowing costs, lowering asset prices and increasing wage pressures. Those effects would be uneven across the economy and benefit some people at the expense of others. Generally helping the factory working I Ohio and hurting those who own highly leveraged assets (like US stocks). Most of the benefits of the USD simply accrue because of the size of the US economy which tends to make it less volatile and less prone to "runs" on the currency. Even if the world were to panic about the direction of the US political system there simply isn't anything else big enoug to run to that would seriously tank the dollar. The same cannot be said for the political developments in a counrty the size of Venezuela. These benefits are independent of the reserve status and accrue to the Euro just as much as the USD.
- swalsh 10y agoI think this is an emotional reaction, I have 60k of liquid cash ready to invest tomorrow, where would be the best place to put it? My first thought is a leveraged ETF... which I think for a short term trade is okay, but the leveraged nature might magnify my losses more than I can tolerate if I'm wrong. What are you guys looking at?
- shostack 10y agoDon't and dollar cost average. If you have to ask this question here, you are not investing, you are gambling. Well, actually you're gambling period if you try to time the market.
- mrleinad 10y agoDon't do anything unless you're thinking intraday. Better wait for the dust to settle.
- swalsh 10y agoI'm thinking the timeframe will be 2 or 3 days.
- tedunangst 10y agoSelling out of the money puts means you don't have to time the bounce.
- rplnt 10y agoDepending on when the new president gets to a microphone.
- refurb 10y agoIf you're looking for something leveraged, your risk tolerance is higher than mine. Nothing wrong with that. I dumped a bunch of cash into the market right after the Brexit vote. Wasn't planned, the timing just worked out. Not bad getting a 3-4% return in the matter of a couple weeks. Will that happen this time? Not sure! But the market probably did over react.
- return0 10y agoHey did anyone mention it's because TRUMP HAS WON?
- noobermin 10y agoI believe this is implicit.
- madengr 10y agoI have $8k waiting to dump into my kids ESA; been waiting for market to drop.
- hristov 10y agoIt seems that the biggest beneficiary at this point is Turkey. Make Turkey great again???
- theuri 10y agoLook at the VIX - up 42% at the moment... A sign of major volatility expected ahead.
- AndrewKemendo 10y agoI've posted this elsewhere but about a year ago I was invited to a private wealth management (PWM) round table luncheon with a bunch of the principals from UBS PWM. I asked them what they thought would happen if Trump was elected and they said that because of his unpredictability, the markets would likely take a huge hit. They went further, and said that when they spoke with leaders in politics and business in other countries around the world, those leaders indicated their biggest fears were if Trump won and they would have to reevaluate their strategies with the US. Interesting times.
- throwaway5752 10y agoI'm not buying the dip tomorrow. This isn't a temporary issue. It's going to cause a global power realignment in the ME, eastern Europe, and all countries on the South China Sea. It's a huge victory for Russia on the heels of the Brexit, and by extension China. If China close ended funds take a hit, buy them. Hard to think of a floor on US equities that makes sense, but I don't see why a 25% fall over the next year isn't possible.
- slv77 10y agoUnder Trump there is little chance that the US wouldn't enter a trade war with China since Trump has already publically declared that he will leave China as a currency manipulator. China is already struggling with massive over capacity in about every industry and needs the export market to export the resulting deflation. It is unlikely that China is going to see another market as large or as willing to absorb imports as the US market has been. China is struggling with massive amounts of bad debt and a sharp downturn in trade could set China down the path of a deflationary depression. The end result may be beneficial if China is able to rebalance its economy but no economy that has grown debt as fast as China has recently has ever been able to do it without massive deflationary disruption (including the US). Generally the world seems to move toward greater integration and trade and then step back in a two steps forward one step back pattern. Trade is generally collapsing globally and this may be another shot across the bow. This has the definite possibility of trying to catch a falling knife.
- nateberkopec 10y agoWorth remembering that the FTSE (UK stock index) crashed briefly after Brexit, and is now up. The markets priced in a Clinton win, and now that isn't happening. What we're seeing is uncertainty and volatility getting priced into the market, not any referendum on Trump. We'll see what happens in a week.
- kevinburke 10y agoIt's pretty easy to see this as a referendum on Trump. Trade and immigration are generally good for an economy. Trump wants to sharply reduce both and has promised to deport millions of immigrants.
- octo_t 10y agoThe FTSE 100 recovered, mostly because GBP lost out against the dollar. There was a bloomberg chart a few weeks back, comparing the FTSE in USD versus the FTSE in GBP and the difference was striking. Take away lesson: markets are complex...
- xenadu02 10y agoIt's also worth remembering that no one has any idea what the long-term consequences are either. Brexit might never happen, it might happen and be a disaster, or it might happen and not really affect much. Similarly with Trump we have no idea what might happen if he does win. He could end up starting WW3, or call for the end of US Democracy and install himself as dictator (and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go along with that).... or he might just end up a do-nothing president bounced out after 4 years. For that matter maybe he's crazy like a fox and fed the Rs bullshit so they'd get behind him, then turn around and push for a hugely progressive agenda. You never know what Trump might do. So yes, I predict a short-term crash, a recovery, but after that all bets are off. We're also due for a recession at some point. In fact Trump could be a blessing in disguise as he presides over a recession, bungles the response, and gets him and the rest of the Rs tossed out in 2018 or 2020. I'm torn about the whole thing because I will personally benefit from Republican control. I've finally made it into the tax bracket where their constant tax breaks for the rich personally benefit me. Long-term their rich-get-richer strategy will lead to anemic growth. Whoever said "may you live in interesting times" as a curse was right.
- codersbrew 10y agoSometimes we vote against our own self interests because we forget. We must learn again. The market is deep in cheap debt and sooner or later that bill will come up. Whomever wins will have to deal with this issue.
- rdtsc 10y agoTime to buy then? (Half kidding, I know they say to never time the market and such).
- swsh 10y agoDoes this imply that the well educated wall street folk might be out of touch with 'America'?
- hackaflocka 10y agoA 300 point drop in the Dow is an "almost normal" day. 700 point is nothing to worry about.
- saretired 10y agoThere have only been 2 drops greater than 700 points. The third largest fall was 684 points.