7 ms·
It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton
by mcphilip 10y ago
It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.
- M_Grey 10y agoThen you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.
- morgante 10y agoWhere is there to "get out" to though? Economically the US has been outperforming the rest of the world recently. I'm especially worried because the developer job market is a lot worse outside the US than inside it. I genuinely don't know where to go (recession seems inevitable).
- tedmiston 10y agoCanada, Australia, New Zealand...
- danthejam 10y agoCan't people just decide to create a new SV somewhere and do it? It's just people you need to move.
- flukus 10y agoWhy make a new one and not secede?
- Inconel 10y agoI'm not particularly well informed on the actual logistics of mounting a secession from the rest of the US, although at the very least I would imagine securing water rights would itself be a significant challenge for SV, but I very much doubt the "disruptors" in SV have the wherewithal to stomach such an endeavor.
- flukus 10y agoI'm not super familiar with the geography there but I'd imagine everything west of the rockies (is that the right mountain range) would go with California and I thought that this was the source of the water.
- Inconel 10y agoI believe a large part of Northern California's, and by extension Silicon Valley's, water comes from the Sierras. The communities of the Sierras, as well as those of the Central Valley which separates Northern and Southern California, tend to be fairly conservative. They also have high rates of firearms ownership. I don't think they would be too keen to join in on a hypothetical SV secession.
- myhf 10y agoSvexit
- M_Grey 10y agoI'm quite partial to Ireland myself, but then, I'm not a developer. Canada also seems lovely this time of year.
- MichaelBurge 10y agoCanada's immigration site is down due to volume. It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.
- M_Grey 10y agoAt this point I'd almost welcome a truly rigged system, or even a secret service member who doesn't mind a lifetime in prison. Eight years of W. Bush was bad, and frankly I doubt the economy could withstand whatever Trump has in "mind".
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- Inconel 10y agoAs someone who very much dislikes the prospect of a Trump presidency, and is in fact well to the left of the Democratic party and Hillary Clinton on most social and economic issues, I find this line of thinking quite troubling. Perhaps rather than hoping for assassinations or voter fraud, those of us who identify as "progressive" could instead channel that mental energy into finding ways to better appeal to large groups of working class people who are imo justifiably angry at the state of things in this country.
- M_Grey 10y agoYou know what? People as a group are just too stupid and easily manipulated to be helped, and given that Trump now gets to pick (probably) 3 SCOTUS seats? We're cooked. Basically, for most of us here, the rest of our lives will have this election hanging over us, for the implications on the SCOTUS alone. As I said, people who can afford it are going to leave in droves.
- ythl 10y agoCome on, at least give the guy a chance before bashing the future economy.
- M_Grey 10y agoWatches markets around the world tumble Yeeeaaaaah...
- flukus 10y agoJust as they always do when something unexpected happens.
- matwood 10y agoMarkets hate the unexpected. I'm viewing this huge down as a buy opportunity.
- M_Grey 10y agoYeah, have fun with that. I don't think putting money in the markets right now is a great move unless you can afford to lose it all. Granted, that's always the case to some extent.
- matwood 10y agoAll? C'mon, the markets are not going to zero. If they did, money would become worthless anyway. Trump is likely going to be very business friendly, and after the initial shock wears off the markets will recover and move on.
- M_Grey 10y agoWe were already looking rough before Trump, the UK has Brexit, the EU is struggling, China is... who the hell knows. I think we could be in for some historically bad times, and all of this while the Middle East and Northern Africa are burning. If not for nuclear detente, I'd be pretty concerned about WWIII right about now.
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- chiaro 10y agoTo be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.
- trhway 10y agoLA times had it for trump. They had their own weighting. Their results when adjusted for commonly accepted weighting matched the common poll average. So it is in the weighting.
- chiaro 10y agoNo they didn't: >Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trai...
- trhway 10y agoYour link doesn't work for me. If you look at their Daybreak poll http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ you can see that they had Trump at 46.8 and Hillary at 43.6
- humanrebar 10y agoA new wrinkle on the Bradley effect, maybe? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
- inimino 10y agoA 30% probability event coming to pass isn't a black swan event. This term is unfortunately overused for anything unexpected but that isn't what it means.
- lucio 10y agoIt is a black swan event? or there are significant problems with the polls?
- Alex3917 10y agoI had a feeling this was going to happen today when I saw that virtually everyone in my Facebook feed and everyone on the streets of NYC was supporting Hillary. Every extra +1 in NYC is pretty much going to be -1 in a swing state. As one of the hundreds of folks banned from DailyKos for being too liberal, I've been spending some time reading the Trump subreddit, and I have to say that Hillary has run perhaps the worst campaign in memory: - Rigged the primaries against Bernie, disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters, and cheated during the debates. - Spent 5x more on paid media advertising, and got all the social media sites to censor pro-Trump messages. - Paid shills to attack anyone who disagrees with her policies on social media. - It looks like there is a good chance her campaign was behind the attempt to frame Assange for pedophilia. - Made gender her primary selling point with her #imwithher slogan. (Imagine if she had gone with something like #TheNextAmerica instead, to contrast with MAGA.) - Accusing Trump of saying and doing tons of things he didn’t actually say or do. - Characterizing Trump supporters as racists, bigots, deplorables, etc. - Paying people to incite violence at Trump rallies - Accusing Russia of hacking her campaign’s emails when in fact it was oedesta who gave out his password to a phishing site… twice… without two-factor enabled. - Having Bill meet with Loretta Lynch during the email investigation. Then appointing Podesta's close friend to run the email investigation which resulted in a last minute FBI coup forcing Comey to make a statement. I didn't vote for Trump, I don't support Trump, and I'm as horrified that he's going to be President as anyone else. But I have to say the actions of the DNC, Hillary, her campaign, and many of her supporters have been egregiously bad. And now everything is super fucked. edit: For everyone downvoting me, go turn on The Young Turks livestream and hear it from Cenk.
- 75j 10y agoYep. Trump is a monster, but this feels sort of good knowing how Clinton and her supporters acted. If only people could have seen the light about the Clintons a year ago, then maybe there would've been better choices today. And remember! The blame for a Trump presidency lies with none other than Hillary Clinton. She's the one that cheated a popular opponent in the primaries, that strategized to promote Trump during the Republican debates, that infiltrated the media and turned journalists into self-admitted "hacks", and she's the one that interjected herself into the presidential race despite knowing that her "scandals" -- electoral corruption, mishandling of classified information, pay-for-play at the Clinton foundation, Bill's history of child rape, etc. -- all disqualify her as a viable opponent to Trump.
- flukus 10y agoEveryone mentions Brexit but I have to wonder it the roots of this goes back to the 90's. Remember the battle of seattle and the likes? I can think of a few other more local (to Australia) events that seem to make sense when you factor in this bubbling discontentment.
- RandomOpinion 10y agoNot surprised; a day of reckoning was bound to come for the left. Consider that even if Trump had lost, his power base would still have existed afterward. Trump is not the problem, Trump is a symptom. The American left took its eyes off of what's important, namely the working class, and instead spent its time and political capital on frivolous[0] causes. This is a wake-up call to refocus. [0] Lots of things some might consider important are frivolous when you're living paycheck-to-paycheck.
- ant6n 10y agoExcept ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.
- Mathnerd314 10y agoTrump has words ("the best words"). The words will inspire Congress to pass laws. The laws will (in theory) help the people. Trump will continue traveling around the country, and report back to Congress what is or is not working. Beyond that it's difficult to say, Trump has promised little but hinted at a lot.
- Inconel 10y agoI imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility. That probably goes a long way for some of these voters. I'm not a Trump supporter, but I do live in coastal California, and the absolute derision with which I see relatively privileged, affluent, college educated people treat or talk about the working/rural poor in "flyover" country makes me question whether, despite my current views, I too wouldn't vote Trump if I found myself on the receiving end of such hostility.
- ant6n 10y ago> I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility As long as you're white, male, hetero, anti-intelectual, Christian, and not born in another country. EDIT: it seems that people are really sensitive about being called out for all the hate Trump spews in their name.
- pastProlog 10y agoOne person who has been clear-headed about this for weeks is Michael Moore. Michigan and Wisconsin were supposed to be in the bag for Hillary, but that looks like where the surprise swing is coming from. Moore said from on the ground it felt like white working class people suffering from deindustrialization felt Hillary would do little for them, and might pick up the Molotov cocktail of Trump to throw into the system. His comments have been in lots of pro-Trump videos for weeks. Looks like he was right.