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+ There will be EU wide standards for 'self driving' just as there will be a 'North American' one. + They will make them cheap. The AI is software, it's a comm

+ There will be EU wide standards for 'self driving' just as there will be a 'North American' one. + They will make them cheap. The AI is software, it's a commodity, and the parts (i.e. LIDAR) will be cheap by then. + In 20 years you won't likely be able to drive your old car in France, and no offence - they will probably mock the Polish for still having 'real cars' :). But you're right - 20 years is too soon. 20 years to 'almost everyone in driverless cars'. 30 years to banning humans. 45 years to banning them even from driving hobby cars. Add 15 years for East Europe and Russia. Add 30 years for poor places.

gambiting 10y ago
"45 years to banning them even from driving hobby cars." Again, I don't think this will ever happen, just like we haven't banned horses on normal roads - there's just so few of them that it's not an issue. Likewise, if in 50 years 99% of cars are self-driving, it won't matter an inch if you want to drive yourself in your antique. If you find someone who will insure you in it, fine, go ahead, don't see why they would be banned - self driving cars will probably do a good enough job of avoiding manual cars anyway.
- yoz-y 10y ago
  I am quite sure that once most of the cars will be autonomous, we will start building autonomous-only roads. With faster speed limits and so on. Manual cars will not be allowed on those, and then progressively more and more roads will become autonomous only. Hopefully the first to become as such would be all roads in cities. Just like horses which you cannot bring to a highway.
  - gambiting 10y ago
    You can't ride a horse on the motorway in the UK(speed limit 70mph) but you can happily ride one on a dual carriageway - which also has a normal speed limit of 70mph. And cities autonomous only? So what about bicycles? Or tricycles? Or hand drawn carriages(rickshaws etc)? Would those roads have high walls around them ,stopping pedestrians from entering? And finally - where would the money for that come from? Even very rich countries(I live in the UK) struggle to maintain their roads to a high standard, something simple like adding new pedestrian crossings can take years in planning and approvals, but somehow, we would modify all our roads to suit one specific type of vehicle? I'm really sorry if I'm being cynical, but I really do have a feeling that this self-driving-car utopia is not going to happen.
    - yoz-y 10y ago
      I think bicycles and other lightweight vehicles are fine. My main problem is that myself, as a pedestrian and a cyclist I am sharing the road with several-ton metal beasts which are driven by annoyed, angry and tired people. I would feel much safer knowing that the pilot of a car next to me is concentrated on the one thing which it is supposed to do. I think however that at least for several years (decades) the autonomous vehicles must be able to work on the roads we currently have. As a disclaimer, I would say that I am actually pro-ban of personal vehicles in city centers today. I really do not see a point of anything that is not an ambulance, fire truck, bus, a taxi or a delivery truck on a road. Why people wake up soon in the morning only to then be stuck in an over than one hour commute when a subway ride would take 20 minutes tops is really beyond me. Banning all cars first and then progressively let autonomous vehicles (as part of a fleet) in would be a win situation in my opinion.
  - marcosdumay 10y ago
    Will pedestrians ever need to cross those autonomous-only roads? If you are talking about elevated distribution roads that people will pass under, then maybe. But I don't see it working on a city like the ones we have now. Maybe there's a major urban restructuring to happen soon...
    - yoz-y 10y ago
      I think they should be able to. Just like now, except the autonomous cars will not run the red lights.
- lfowles 10y ago
  >Again, I don't think this will ever happen, just like we haven't banned horses on normal roads Funny, the local SCCA group has autocross at an airstrip near an Amish community. The roads are swarming with horses and buggies the morning of the Sunday events. Interesting juxtaposition :)

gambiting 10y ago

"45 years to banning them even from driving hobby cars." Again, I don't think this will ever happen, just like we haven't banned horses on normal roads - there's just so few of them that it's not an issue. Likewise, if in 50 years 99% of cars are self-driving, it won't matter an inch if you want to drive yourself in your antique. If you find someone who will insure you in it, fine, go ahead, don't see why they would be banned - self driving cars will probably do a good enough job of avoiding manual cars anyway.

yoz-y 10y ago
I am quite sure that once most of the cars will be autonomous, we will start building autonomous-only roads. With faster speed limits and so on. Manual cars will not be allowed on those, and then progressively more and more roads will become autonomous only. Hopefully the first to become as such would be all roads in cities. Just like horses which you cannot bring to a highway.
- gambiting 10y ago
  You can't ride a horse on the motorway in the UK(speed limit 70mph) but you can happily ride one on a dual carriageway - which also has a normal speed limit of 70mph. And cities autonomous only? So what about bicycles? Or tricycles? Or hand drawn carriages(rickshaws etc)? Would those roads have high walls around them ,stopping pedestrians from entering? And finally - where would the money for that come from? Even very rich countries(I live in the UK) struggle to maintain their roads to a high standard, something simple like adding new pedestrian crossings can take years in planning and approvals, but somehow, we would modify all our roads to suit one specific type of vehicle? I'm really sorry if I'm being cynical, but I really do have a feeling that this self-driving-car utopia is not going to happen.
  - yoz-y 10y ago
    I think bicycles and other lightweight vehicles are fine. My main problem is that myself, as a pedestrian and a cyclist I am sharing the road with several-ton metal beasts which are driven by annoyed, angry and tired people. I would feel much safer knowing that the pilot of a car next to me is concentrated on the one thing which it is supposed to do. I think however that at least for several years (decades) the autonomous vehicles must be able to work on the roads we currently have. As a disclaimer, I would say that I am actually pro-ban of personal vehicles in city centers today. I really do not see a point of anything that is not an ambulance, fire truck, bus, a taxi or a delivery truck on a road. Why people wake up soon in the morning only to then be stuck in an over than one hour commute when a subway ride would take 20 minutes tops is really beyond me. Banning all cars first and then progressively let autonomous vehicles (as part of a fleet) in would be a win situation in my opinion.
- marcosdumay 10y ago
  Will pedestrians ever need to cross those autonomous-only roads? If you are talking about elevated distribution roads that people will pass under, then maybe. But I don't see it working on a city like the ones we have now. Maybe there's a major urban restructuring to happen soon...
  - yoz-y 10y ago
    I think they should be able to. Just like now, except the autonomous cars will not run the red lights.
lfowles 10y ago
>Again, I don't think this will ever happen, just like we haven't banned horses on normal roads Funny, the local SCCA group has autocross at an airstrip near an Amish community. The roads are swarming with horses and buggies the morning of the Sunday events. Interesting juxtaposition :)