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I think it will be really interesting to see what happens in election forecasting if Trump wins this election -- doubly so if there's no major scandal for Clint
by throwaway729 10y ago
I think it will be really interesting to see what happens in election forecasting if Trump wins this election -- doubly so if there's no major scandal for Clinton between now and election day.
- jacquesm 10y agoWhat happens with election forecasting will be the least of our collective problems.
- kahrkunne 10y ago>doubly so if there's no major scandal for Clinton between now and election day. Unlikely, considering there's one every other day
- Scarblac 10y agoRepeating the same thing every other day doesn't count.
- inimino 10y agoIf the polls stay as they are and the election goes the other way, it means that polling as practiced is somehow fundamentally broken, which would be very surprising. If there's a gradual shift in the polls, I'm not sure what that would mean. Which scenario did you have in mind?
- ddalex 10y agoBRexit will likely want to have a word with you. I have a feeling that polling is used now a political weapon not a measure of reality.
- vintermann 10y agoNate Silver arguably lost a good deal of "prediction calibration points" by placing a very low chance on Trump getting the nomination in the first place.
- 1812calif 10y agoNot at all. A low probabilty does not make the prediction invalid because of the result.
- Sacho 10y agoAnd wouldn't the same be true if Trump wins the election? After all, Nate Silver isn't predicting a 0% chance for Trump to win, I think last time I checked it was 10-15%.
- vintermann 10y agoWell, that's not what I said either.