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Freelancers Now Make Up 35% of U.S. Workforce
- Chronic9q 10y agoSo the unemployment rate is actually higher than we thought...
- mdorazio 10y agoFirst off, their sample size (6,000) is pretty small to be generalizing to all Americans. Second, if 63% of these freelancers (which is pretty loosely defined in their survey) say they are freelancing voluntarily, that means 37% would rather have a normal full-time job. So 13% of total people in the "workforce" are forced to freelance and are likely underemployed as a result. That's not exactly indicative of the healthy job market the BLS likes to claim we have.
- HillaryBriss 10y agoSample sizes determining the proportion of voters supporting a presidential candidate in a US election are generally even smaller ( < 3000 ). But that's still large enough to predict an election with decent accuracy. http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-decide-the-sample-size-when-polling-a-large-population http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-deci... http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm
- objclxt 10y ago> their sample size (6,000) is pretty small to be generalizing to all Americans Not really. It has been a while since I took a statistics class, but a sample size of around 4,00 will give you a 99% confidence rating for the entire US population with a 2% margin of error [1]. Of course, you need to pick the participants correctly, but the size alone is more than enough to generalize to the entire population. I would be more suspicious of the fact the survey was run by the Freelancers Union and Upwork, two organizations who directly benefit from more freelancers. So it's somewhat in their best interests to get a high result. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination and https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/ https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/
- mdorazio 10y agoI'm aware of sample size determination, but minimum sample sizes typically assume random sampling over the target population. All their sampling methodology slide says is that it was an online survey of adults who have done some paid work in the last 12 months, and they did some weighting to match BLS stats. We have no idea how they found the participants or controlled for bias in the selection process.
- markcampbell 10y agoThis is a very important aspect of the study. They did not do a true randomized survey as participants were self-selecting (online surveys have this inherently -- well, mostly).
- dredmorbius 10y agoIt's not clear that this was or wasn't a self-selecting sample. The article does state that the surveying was conducted online: In the research, more than 6,000 U.S. working adults over the age of 18 were surveyed online by independent research firm Edelman Intelligence between July 29 — August 24, 2016. Among them, 2,049 were freelancers and 3,953 were non-freelancers. The survey defined freelancers as individuals who have engaged in supplemental, temporary, project- or contract-based work within the past 12 months.
- dredmorbius 10y agoSampling error or bias is a hugely more significant factor than sample size. Once you're over 60 - 300 survey participants, you're well within large-number stats territory. If you're trying to estimate multiple points of freedom, you might have to increase your sample size. Simply drawing a larger sample of a biased sampling methodology isn't going to solve any problems. You'd have to aggressively correct for errors. The survey here was conducted by a firm dedicated to such work (a positive sign), but it's attached to a large public-relations firm (Edelman), which I consider a very strong negative. It isn't a disinterested research organisation or dedicated polling firm such as Pew or Harris. Edelman's other clients include Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, HP, and Samsung. Quite the list of rusted stars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm)
- zelon88 10y agoSeriously. I wouldn't freelance if I could support my home and my family on a 40 hour salary.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- cableshaft 10y agoAn article that mentions a study. Comment claiming the sample size is too small. A horde of Statistics 101 graduates get in a tizzy and have to explain why the sample size isn't actually too small in reality. People argue back and forth about sample sizes. Discussion about the article itself gets massively derailed. Rinse, wash, repeat. Sorry, it's just become so common I expect it every time there's an article about semi-controversial study and I almost always see it.
- dredmorbius 10y agoDownvoting the sample-size critics would help somewhat. This thread's at least moved down off the top of the discussion.
- TAForObvReasons 10y agoSource: https://www.upwork.com/press/2016/10/06/freelancing-in-america-2016/ https://www.upwork.com/press/2016/10/06/freelancing-in-ameri... > The freelance workforce grew from 53 million in 2014 to 55 million in 2016 and currently represents 35% of the U.S. workforce. The freelance workforce earned an estimated $1 trillion this past year, representing a significant share of the U.S. economy.
- CiPHPerCoder 10y agoWarning: Autoplay video.
- dtnewman 10y agoThis survey seems to consider someone a freelancer if they "have engaged in supplemental, temporary, project or contract-based work, within the past 12 months". I'd love to see the actual questions asked (if someone has a link, please share), because it seems to me like the answers may vary widely based on the wording of the question. I work a full time job as a developer; but for example, a few months ago, I charged a former employer a trivial amount to fix a bug in a system that I was familiar with from when I worked there. My wife is a PhD student. But she took a few babysitting jobs over the summer before her program started. Does that make us both freelancers? We certainly don't consider ourselves to be, but depending on how the question is framed, we might be categorized as such.
- marcoperaza 10y agoAs they say, there's three kinds of lies in this world: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- jandrewrogers 10y agoThis, unless it excludes people that also have a full-time job during that entire period. Despite being employed full-time, I have a non-trivial amount of income that comes from "freelance" work for reasons having little to do with trying to make a rent payment or similar. I know many people in the software business in the same position.
- ixtli 10y agoCan someone provide an archive.org or some sort of mirror for me to read the article? Forbes now require you to disable ad blockers, but then auto play video with audio :(
- thrownaway23 10y agohttp://archive.is/jhVvS http://archive.is/jhVvS
- ixtli 10y agoThank you :)
- asavadatti 10y agoI don't understand why they do this. Is there a way to stop videos from auto playing in Chrome?
- ixtli 10y agoIt's annoying. One thing I do know is that there is an experimental flag for turning on a "mute" option when you right-click a tab.
- afarrell 10y ago> many of these taxpayers do not have access to the traditional social safety net, such as unemployment insurance, or access to health care they can afford. 1) Doesn't the availability of freelance work act as a safety rope for people who lose their full-time work or find it hard to get due to schedule constraints and/or criminal convictions? 2) The ACA was supposed to make health care affordable for freelancers. Is it in fact failing to achieve that for most people? I remember feeling like the cost of procedures was on a silver plan too far uncertain and moved to the UK partly for that reason.
- istorical 10y agoHealthcare is still incredibly expensive for freelancers. ACA hasn't lowered costs the way it was intended to, but it has required that people who previously went without insurance (because they couldn't afford it) purchase it. Depending on your political persuasion, this is either because 1) ACA didn't go far enough and was de-fanged before birth or 2) it was a bad idea and we should have gone in a different direction.
- Retric 10y agoHealthcare is getting more expensive faster than inflation. ACA did lower costs when you account for this long term trend. But, not if you compare costs now vs 5 years ago.
- jrs235 10y agoACA addresses healthcare INSURANCE costs, not actual healthcare costs.
- lotsofpulp 10y agoSince the probability that a person will need healthcare and thus utilize their health insurance, is basically 100%, increasing healthcare costs will necessitate increasing health insurance costs. ACA was simply a way to get healthcare costs to be spread out among more people by forcing them into the insurance pool, which was more politically viable than the option where all taxpayers pay for each other's healthcare (taxpayer funded healthcare).
- dredmorbius 10y agoFor those hoping to cut through Forbes BS landing pages, autoplay video, PR crud, and the rest of it, the survey slide deck is the closest thing I've found to actual study meat with minimal spin: http://www.slideshare.net/upwork/freelancing-in-america-2016/1 http://www.slideshare.net/upwork/freelancing-in-america-2016... I'd recommend the article be replaced with this link. For those questioning methodology, which is never mentioned in the slide deck with any specificity either, note that the study is conducted by a major PR firm for: This study commissioned by: © COPYRIGHT 2016 DANIEL J EDELMAN INC. | 63 Upwork Upwork is the world’s largest freelancing website. No, no conflicts of interest at all here. Nothing to see folks. Keep moving right along. </p>
- jacquesm 10y agoA large chunk of the 'new freelancers' are actually people who would love to have a normal job but that have been kicked out from their former position and are now forced to take work that normally would have been done by salaried employees. No unemployment, no benefits, a more complicated financial situation and no security whatsoever when it comes to being guaranteed some income next month. Coupled with limited financial planning skills this is a disaster waiting to happen, and all that to make it even easier to get rid of people when the economy hiccups. Many decades of progress lost in a few short years.
- anindha 10y ago> kicked out from their former position and are now forced to take work that normally would have been done by salaried employees. Based on what data?
- jahewson 10y agoThe article. > Among respondents, 63% said they were freelancing voluntarily So 37% have been forced into freelancing. That's a large chunk.
- jjnoakes 10y agoWhere in the article is that quote? The one I see is slightly different (in important ways), and in addition to that ,the 37% unaccounted for in that statistic may be "no response" or something other than "I was forced into it because I lost my job and had to take a job that normally would have been done by a salaried employee".
- noobermin 10y agoTop of the second page. They don't identify the 37%. The interesting thing they cite is that that percentage has moved up from 53% in 2014 representing a growth of willing free lancers.
- noobermin 10y ago
- smpetrey 10y agoNot surprised. I freelanced for something like 5 years before finally getting a 9–5 job (not that it pays much more but it's a stable income).
- dogma1138 10y agoSelf employed / business ownership was always a large part of the US workforce, there was a consolidation period which is now in decline and things are getting back closer to their older state. "Freelancer" is just a different name for that simply because you don't need to own a business front property to be a tradesman today for many professions.
- cloudjacker 10y agoEver see what happens when you apply for a loan or credit card when you write freelance or self employed? A big red flag that says unsteady income! If that much of the workforce was shut out of the credit markets that would suggest a big adjustment in spending patterns in this country.
- themagician 10y agoThere is no red flag. They ask for two years of tax returns in most cases. In a lot of cases (most?) a freelancer is an FTE, just for a single person company.
- cloudjacker 10y agoIn which case they shouldn't write freelancer, they should write Creative Director at Visual Consulting Company LLC with a salary of $XYZ,ABC unless its a mortgage application.
- 1812Overture 10y agoI believe when I applied for a mortgage my income from sources other than my salary was discounted by about 1/3 by the mortgage broker as it wasn't considered "steady" despite being steady over the tax returns I handed over. Might depend from broker to broker, I don't know what the federal rules are.
- arrty88 10y agoFreelancers aka people being ripped off and paid via 1099 without any health insurance
- hw 10y agoIt's also much easier to do freelancing work now than it was 5 years ago. With the rise in SaaS like Roninapp, Elance, Reamaze, Upwork, Basecamp etc that enable freelancers to be more productive, seek and get paid, plus the freelancer lifestyle of being able to work anywhere they want and being your own boss, it's not a surprise people are moving towards freelancing instead of a typical 9-5 job
- JamesBarney 10y agoThe ACA is the largest reason I can contract. Without it I would be forced to be an employee.
- serge2k 10y ago> according to the “Freelancing in America: 2016″ survey released this morning by the Freelancers Union, based in New York City, and the giant freelancing platform Upwork, headquartered in Silicon Valley Well I'm sure these parties have nothing to gain by releasing junk data.
- noobermin 10y agoMight be helpful here is the actual results from upwork[0]. [0] https://www.upwork.com/i/freelancing-in-america/2016/ https://www.upwork.com/i/freelancing-in-america/2016/ Quite the quote on slide 7, surprised it didn't make the article or I missed it: Half of freelancers (50%) say there is no amount of money that would get them to take a traditional job and stop freelancing.
- jorblumesea 10y ago> Freelancing in America: 2016 October 6, 2016 Edelman Intelligence (Commissioned by Upwork and Freelancers Union) That's all you need to know.
- jacobsenscott 10y agoRead that as freeloaders.
- popdoit 10y agoAfter working in agencies/consultancies, I realized I could cut out the middle man and let clients use me directly. So, yes, I freelance or consult because I found a need.
- liquidise 10y agoThis is a bit exaggerated. As the results deck [1] shows, fully 25% (13.5 million) of those listed as Freelancers are, in fact, Moonlighters. Moonlighters are explicitly described as having stable, full-time employment in addition to their freelancing gig(s). It also lists another 28% (15.2 million) as people with a traditional job who then additionally gain income from sources like Uber. What this adds up to is over 50% of those surveyed do not rely on freelance work for all of their income. In fact, it is likely that freelance income only accounts for a minority fraction of the income earned by half the respondents. 1. http://www.slideshare.net/upwork/freelancing-in-america-2016/1 http://www.slideshare.net/upwork/freelancing-in-america-2016... (slide 10)
- rajeshp1986 10y agoI doubt these no.s are really true. I feel these numbers are extrapolated after a survey over a small no. of people in a locality. H1b workers are not allowed to do freelancing. They need to have a regular office job. Major chunk of technology workers are people working on H1b visas. if not H1b, there are many people who are waiting for green-card approval. This takes a long time and I don't think they can work as freelancers as well.
- vacri 10y agoI find it hard to believe that 35% of the US workforce is comprised of self-employed white-collar workers doing contract work. I'd easily believe "35% of the workforce is self-employed", but freelancers? I guess I'm an old fuddy-duddy that likes words to actually mean something; get off my lawn &c.
- sunshiney 10y agoThe term freelancer does refer to a business owner, generally a sole proprietorship who does not have employees. As someone who has been in business for 30 years, the difference I keep seeing now is that many contemporary freelancers do not view thwnselves as ownwrs of a business. I have been noticing the uptick in that perception for the past 4 or 5 years. The one positive ourcome imho is that more people now understand the risk,challenges and struggle associated with running a business. But that will only truly happen when the roses realize they are roses and begin to think like one. Much of the conflict I see today is because we have people who think like employees working as sole proprietors.
- freelancezombie 10y agoI freelance because I can't find traditional employment. Most of my income comes from Upwork - they take 20 percent of most gigs, a huge chunk by any standard. This article is just sponsored content - an ad piece for Upwork. I can't even imagine how much they are making by shaving 20 percent off of every gig... I'd go back to 9-5 any day for stability, benefits and a sane work schedule. In case you are wondering, I'm one of the higher priced users in my area of expertise so I have to be selective on projects I take. Even with some of the highest rates on Upwork I still struggle to make a decent living. Don't get me wrong, some days it feels awesome but others I feel like I'm putting in double time over the 9-5 guy.