5 ms·

Gardener Housekeeper Nanny Personal trainer Personal assistant Tutor Pet care Archive researcher Take two things that could unlock numerous needs for jo

by Tycho 10y ago

Gardener Housekeeper Nanny Personal trainer Personal assistant Tutor Pet care Archive researcher Take two things that could unlock numerous needs for jobs. 1) education, which we currently do en masse, but could be personalised to varying extents 2) remote working, which would free people from cities and allow them to have larger houses and gardens, and in general make service provision less efficient and require more labour (it's easy to serve urban dwellers since they are so concentrated)

marcosdumay 10y ago
Put gardener, housekeeper, personal trainer, and pet care on the 'obvious next targets for automation' bin. I really don't think the other ones are safe. Just that it's not obvious that they aren't.
- Tycho 10y ago
  So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?
  - tomlock 10y ago
    https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-computer-vision-to-gyms-and-trainers-raises-1-85m-from-khosla-signalfire/ https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-com...
  - marcosdumay 10y ago
    Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong? Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from video games to in-lab research.
    - Tycho 10y ago
      I just think predictions are worthless if you don't put any kind of time horizon on them and don't explain why existing trends indicate otherwise. As you said, we have seen a proliferation of devices, equipment and information that make it easier than ever for people to form a fitness plan and measure progress. We have also, at the same time, seen a large increase in the number of personal trainers in employment. This would suggest that technological progress in this sector is complimenting/augmenting, not replacing, the work of humans.
      - marcosdumay 10y ago
        As their job gets automated and more productive, we'll probably see more employment of personal trainers. At least for a while. There are many people that would like to hire one, but won't because it's too expensive - as it gets cheaper, more get hired. Programmers are on this same stage of the cycle. But I expect we to last there much more than personal trainers.
        Tycho 10y ago
        If you went back 40 years, you'd probably find people saying accountancy was a dying profession, that it was only a matter of time before their function is entirely carried out by computers. And indeed we have software for probably every accountancy task, just as people imagined back then. We've had it for years. We still have accountants. People are willing to pay to have someone shield them from the complexity, the diligence, and the organizational effort behind everyday endeavors. That's not going to change. Also, automation's track record is incredibly overrated. It seems to only work in situations with exquisitely controlled conditions, like assembly lines. People bring up super-market check-outs, but this only works because the customer does all the physical work themselves. The bridge between automation and complexity is intelligence... and we're nowhere even remotely close to having AGI technology.
DougWebb 10y ago
So, servants for the aristocrats, basically. Nice utopian future, if you're rich.
- Tycho 10y ago
  Lots of regular people already have a lawyer, a stylist/hairdresser, a doctor, accountant, tutor for the kids etc. I'm pretty sure those workers don't consider themselves servants of anyone.
  - DougWebb 10y ago
    That's because there's relatively few of them, serving many customers. The GP post inverts that, suggesting the vast majority working service jobs for the relatively few customers who can afford to pay them. That's a servant/aristocrat relationship.

by Tycho 10y ago

marcosdumay 10y ago

Put gardener, housekeeper, personal trainer, and pet care on the 'obvious next targets for automation' bin. I really don't think the other ones are safe. Just that it's not obvious that they aren't.

Tycho 10y ago
So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?
- tomlock 10y ago
  https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-computer-vision-to-gyms-and-trainers-raises-1-85m-from-khosla-signalfire/ https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-com...
- marcosdumay 10y ago
  Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong? Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from video games to in-lab research.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    I just think predictions are worthless if you don't put any kind of time horizon on them and don't explain why existing trends indicate otherwise. As you said, we have seen a proliferation of devices, equipment and information that make it easier than ever for people to form a fitness plan and measure progress. We have also, at the same time, seen a large increase in the number of personal trainers in employment. This would suggest that technological progress in this sector is complimenting/augmenting, not replacing, the work of humans.
    - marcosdumay 10y ago
      As their job gets automated and more productive, we'll probably see more employment of personal trainers. At least for a while. There are many people that would like to hire one, but won't because it's too expensive - as it gets cheaper, more get hired. Programmers are on this same stage of the cycle. But I expect we to last there much more than personal trainers.
      - Tycho 10y ago
        If you went back 40 years, you'd probably find people saying accountancy was a dying profession, that it was only a matter of time before their function is entirely carried out by computers. And indeed we have software for probably every accountancy task, just as people imagined back then. We've had it for years. We still have accountants. People are willing to pay to have someone shield them from the complexity, the diligence, and the organizational effort behind everyday endeavors. That's not going to change. Also, automation's track record is incredibly overrated. It seems to only work in situations with exquisitely controlled conditions, like assembly lines. People bring up super-market check-outs, but this only works because the customer does all the physical work themselves. The bridge between automation and complexity is intelligence... and we're nowhere even remotely close to having AGI technology.

DougWebb 10y ago

So, servants for the aristocrats, basically. Nice utopian future, if you're rich.

Tycho 10y ago
Lots of regular people already have a lawyer, a stylist/hairdresser, a doctor, accountant, tutor for the kids etc. I'm pretty sure those workers don't consider themselves servants of anyone.
- DougWebb 10y ago
  That's because there's relatively few of them, serving many customers. The GP post inverts that, suggesting the vast majority working service jobs for the relatively few customers who can afford to pay them. That's a servant/aristocrat relationship.