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> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of prov

> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone? Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs. I'm honestly curious what you think it is that <95th percentile humans will have to contribute to the future economy.

nickff 10y ago
You are asking an unreasonable question; could the Luddites have predicted the economy of 1900, 1950, or 2000? If we have never been capable of making an accurate forecast, it would be unreasonable to expect that today.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
yummyfajitas 10y ago
Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should be devoted to driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom. Also, I'm not sure where your "160-250 million people" comes from. That's exactly how many workers there are today, many of whom are in no danger of having their jobs automated.
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  > "driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom." All of which can be automated. Furthermore... > "highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor" None of those jobs are safe from automation either. Your personal productivity means diddly squat compared to fast automated interconnected machines that can teach themselves. Engineers and traders are just as expendable as the rest of us.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    Today a middle class person will have a doctor, a dentist, an accountant, and a lawyer. That list could extend to include personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist... The list is endless. Some things will allow people to monetise talents that previously were not easily monetised (imagine having a "sense of humour" coach), others will be highly specialised requiring years of education, others will be more like trades which a large percentage of the population could learn with adequate training.
    - ZenoArrow 10y ago
      > "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professional. However, the lack of job opportunities for humans need not be a problem. There are still plenty of things we enjoy doing, and could continue to enjoy doing on a voluntary basis. That way everyone wins, the machines take away the need to work to earn money, and humans get to spend their time doing things they enjoy. That's part of the reasoning behind UBI, to stop monetary needs getting in the way of making this future a reality.
      - Tycho 10y ago
        I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.
        vertex-four 10y ago
        You think nobody would be interested in a personal trainer robot, but there'd be a substantiative jump in the number of people demanding new personal trainers?
- wott 10y ago
  A few lords with an army of domestics. That's a brilliant model of society you envision. Since it seems perfectly acceptable to you, I guess you imagine yourself in the ranks of the lords, not in those of the lackeys.
- ryuker16 10y ago
  welcome to mexico and india
Tycho 10y ago
Gardener Housekeeper Nanny Personal trainer Personal assistant Tutor Pet care Archive researcher Take two things that could unlock numerous needs for jobs. 1) education, which we currently do en masse, but could be personalised to varying extents 2) remote working, which would free people from cities and allow them to have larger houses and gardens, and in general make service provision less efficient and require more labour (it's easy to serve urban dwellers since they are so concentrated)
- marcosdumay 10y ago
  Put gardener, housekeeper, personal trainer, and pet care on the 'obvious next targets for automation' bin. I really don't think the other ones are safe. Just that it's not obvious that they aren't.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?
    - tomlock 10y ago
      https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-computer-vision-to-gyms-and-trainers-raises-1-85m-from-khosla-signalfire/ https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-com...
    - marcosdumay 10y ago
      Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong? Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from video games to in-lab research.
      - 10y ago

nickff 10y ago

You are asking an unreasonable question; could the Luddites have predicted the economy of 1900, 1950, or 2000? If we have never been capable of making an accurate forecast, it would be unreasonable to expect that today.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

yummyfajitas 10y ago

Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should be devoted to driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom. Also, I'm not sure where your "160-250 million people" comes from. That's exactly how many workers there are today, many of whom are in no danger of having their jobs automated.

ZenoArrow 10y ago
> "driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom." All of which can be automated. Furthermore... > "highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor" None of those jobs are safe from automation either. Your personal productivity means diddly squat compared to fast automated interconnected machines that can teach themselves. Engineers and traders are just as expendable as the rest of us.
- Tycho 10y ago
  Today a middle class person will have a doctor, a dentist, an accountant, and a lawyer. That list could extend to include personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist... The list is endless. Some things will allow people to monetise talents that previously were not easily monetised (imagine having a "sense of humour" coach), others will be highly specialised requiring years of education, others will be more like trades which a large percentage of the population could learn with adequate training.
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    > "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professional. However, the lack of job opportunities for humans need not be a problem. There are still plenty of things we enjoy doing, and could continue to enjoy doing on a voluntary basis. That way everyone wins, the machines take away the need to work to earn money, and humans get to spend their time doing things they enjoy. That's part of the reasoning behind UBI, to stop monetary needs getting in the way of making this future a reality.
    - Tycho 10y ago
      I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.
      - vertex-four 10y ago
        You think nobody would be interested in a personal trainer robot, but there'd be a substantiative jump in the number of people demanding new personal trainers?
wott 10y ago
A few lords with an army of domestics. That's a brilliant model of society you envision. Since it seems perfectly acceptable to you, I guess you imagine yourself in the ranks of the lords, not in those of the lackeys.
ryuker16 10y ago
welcome to mexico and india

Tycho 10y ago

Gardener Housekeeper Nanny Personal trainer Personal assistant Tutor Pet care Archive researcher Take two things that could unlock numerous needs for jobs. 1) education, which we currently do en masse, but could be personalised to varying extents 2) remote working, which would free people from cities and allow them to have larger houses and gardens, and in general make service provision less efficient and require more labour (it's easy to serve urban dwellers since they are so concentrated)

marcosdumay 10y ago
Put gardener, housekeeper, personal trainer, and pet care on the 'obvious next targets for automation' bin. I really don't think the other ones are safe. Just that it's not obvious that they aren't.
- Tycho 10y ago
  So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?
  - tomlock 10y ago
    https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-computer-vision-to-gyms-and-trainers-raises-1-85m-from-khosla-signalfire/ https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/30/smartspot-which-brings-com...
  - marcosdumay 10y ago
    Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong? Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from video games to in-lab research.
    - 10y ago