4 ms·

Part of me wants to be proven wrong on how strong the EU will negotiate but I understand the reason and need for them to do so and I expect they will. I hate th

Part of me wants to be proven wrong on how strong the EU will negotiate but I understand the reason and need for them to do so and I expect they will. I hate that it is likely that remain supporters will get to say "I told you so' in about 2 years time.

sevenless 10y ago
If the EU really wanted to hurt the UK they'd declare the following things, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. Britain can swap immigrants for retirees. The residency rights of all Britons in Europe are contingent on residency rights of Europeans in Britain. If Europeans are made to apply for visas, so will every one of the millions of Britons in Spain. 2. Drain the country of talent. Recognizing that millions of British are being unilaterally stripped of their EU citizenship, create a new category of general EU citizens, and allow talented British to apply for instant and permanent residence, conditional on (1) giving up British citizenship and (2) learning the language of their continental locale within the next five years. 3. Tell Scotland that it would accept their continuing as a member of the EU if and only if they applied, as an independent state, while the UK was a member state of the EU. 4. Tell the UK that Article 50 is considered to have been invoked as of now, and they have two years to leave. The last two would be especially funny.
- Normal_gaussian 10y ago
  1 could happen 2 would be interesting but incredibly unlikely 3 would be voted down by the many countries that have non trivial problems with internal divisions 4 can't happen
  - thomasahle 10y ago
    I take it 4 can't happen because the article has to be invoked by the leaving country. However surely there is another article for just kicking a country out of the union?
    - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
      Presumably. However it is not in the interests of the other nations or the beaurocracy to have the UK leave. The UK is a net contributor to the EU. If the funds it provides are pulled then the other contributors must contribute more or achieve less. The recipients will receive less either way. The UK leaving weakens the EU significantly. It will also weaken the UK, but make no mistake the best interests of most in power are served by drawing this process out. On top of that you have to remember that many other nations have severe EU doubts. Key amongst them are France and the Netherlands, two large contributors. An EU collapse could occur if either or both of these leave. Why would they leave if the UK is kicked out? It's an overtly aggressive move against EU skeptics. Aggressive moves have a long history of causing increased support for the target. Refusing to offer good deals once the UK has left will not be viewed as aggressive.
- anexprogrammer 10y ago
  3 would cause remarkably high migration north of the border, some would probably try living in tents. Scots would be complaining of all the bloody English. I know they do that already. :) 4 Fairly sure they can't, or would have by now, just because.
- blibble 10y ago
  since we're into the absurd (3 and 4 are Treaty breaches), here's a satirical list of how the UK could respond to the above, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. The residency rights of all EU citizens in Britain are contingent on residency rights of Britons in the EU. 2. Cut corporation tax to 0% and freeze all contributions to the EU budget with immediate effect 3. Veto everything possible in the Council until exit, and voting against where QMV applies 4. Send half the Royal Navy to the Mediterranean and offer to transport anyone from Northern Africa to the south of Europe, and use the rest to exclude EU ships from British waters of course once you're at 4 you're basically at war, and then maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels
  - notahacker 10y ago
    I think you're overestimating the relative size of the Royal Navy...
  - krona 10y ago
    >> ..maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels Far too expensive; it would be much cheaper to just switch off the Eurobond clearing houses without warning.
  - pmontra 10y ago
    There isn't much left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ship... especially the surface fleet. Compare with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_shi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_shi...
- ptaipale 10y ago
  I don't see why Britain would want French or Germans to apply for visas. Hardly a negotiation point. Regarding point 3, to allow Scotland to join, EU would have to renegotiate the 1998 SGP treaty among all member countries, because Scottish budget deficit is worse than what it has ever been in e.g. Greece. That'd be nowadays probably a harder thing than Brexit itself.
- gakada 10y ago
  5. Indefinitely hold up UK's new WTO schedule, apply huge tariffs to UK goods entering the EU, while it doesn't have MFN status.
volatilitish 10y ago
I disagree. Leave voters are already being able to say "I told you so". We haven't had a war yet, we're not in a recession, and the EU is forging ahead with its army, letting Turkey in, etc etc. I very much doubt the EU will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and our friends around Europe will be free again.
- sevenless 10y ago
  Nothing has changed yet. In what way are Leave voters able to say "I told you so"? I very much doubt the UK will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and Scotland will be free again :-)
  - blibble 10y ago
    a crucial point that many have missed is that independence after a hard brexit would likely result in Scots no longer having the automatic right to work in England. in the previous referendum this wasn't an issue, as the UK and an independent Scotland would both be in the EU together, with the freedom of movement of workers. your average Scot values the ability to work in England much more highly than the ability to work in the EU, so this makes Scottish independence less likely, not more, which explains Sturgeon's recent behaviour.
    - notahacker 10y ago
      Expect it to be a major feature in any second independence referendum campaign. I suspect if Scotland ever seceded they'd fudge automatic rights to work in England and open borders (in return for border checks at Scottish airports and a customs union) in a similar manner as needs to be negotiated for Northern Ireland. Those negotiations aren't going to be fun...
    - hackbinary 10y ago
      The problem that England has with Scotland is all the land that the English aristocracy 'owns' in Scotland.
- Symbiote 10y ago

sevenless 10y ago

If the EU really wanted to hurt the UK they'd declare the following things, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. Britain can swap immigrants for retirees. The residency rights of all Britons in Europe are contingent on residency rights of Europeans in Britain. If Europeans are made to apply for visas, so will every one of the millions of Britons in Spain. 2. Drain the country of talent. Recognizing that millions of British are being unilaterally stripped of their EU citizenship, create a new category of general EU citizens, and allow talented British to apply for instant and permanent residence, conditional on (1) giving up British citizenship and (2) learning the language of their continental locale within the next five years. 3. Tell Scotland that it would accept their continuing as a member of the EU if and only if they applied, as an independent state, while the UK was a member state of the EU. 4. Tell the UK that Article 50 is considered to have been invoked as of now, and they have two years to leave. The last two would be especially funny.

Normal_gaussian 10y ago
1 could happen 2 would be interesting but incredibly unlikely 3 would be voted down by the many countries that have non trivial problems with internal divisions 4 can't happen
- thomasahle 10y ago
  I take it 4 can't happen because the article has to be invoked by the leaving country. However surely there is another article for just kicking a country out of the union?
  - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
    Presumably. However it is not in the interests of the other nations or the beaurocracy to have the UK leave. The UK is a net contributor to the EU. If the funds it provides are pulled then the other contributors must contribute more or achieve less. The recipients will receive less either way. The UK leaving weakens the EU significantly. It will also weaken the UK, but make no mistake the best interests of most in power are served by drawing this process out. On top of that you have to remember that many other nations have severe EU doubts. Key amongst them are France and the Netherlands, two large contributors. An EU collapse could occur if either or both of these leave. Why would they leave if the UK is kicked out? It's an overtly aggressive move against EU skeptics. Aggressive moves have a long history of causing increased support for the target. Refusing to offer good deals once the UK has left will not be viewed as aggressive.
anexprogrammer 10y ago
3 would cause remarkably high migration north of the border, some would probably try living in tents. Scots would be complaining of all the bloody English. I know they do that already. :) 4 Fairly sure they can't, or would have by now, just because.
blibble 10y ago
since we're into the absurd (3 and 4 are Treaty breaches), here's a satirical list of how the UK could respond to the above, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. The residency rights of all EU citizens in Britain are contingent on residency rights of Britons in the EU. 2. Cut corporation tax to 0% and freeze all contributions to the EU budget with immediate effect 3. Veto everything possible in the Council until exit, and voting against where QMV applies 4. Send half the Royal Navy to the Mediterranean and offer to transport anyone from Northern Africa to the south of Europe, and use the rest to exclude EU ships from British waters of course once you're at 4 you're basically at war, and then maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels
- notahacker 10y ago
  I think you're overestimating the relative size of the Royal Navy...
- krona 10y ago
  >> ..maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels Far too expensive; it would be much cheaper to just switch off the Eurobond clearing houses without warning.
- pmontra 10y ago
  There isn't much left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ship... especially the surface fleet. Compare with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_shi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_shi...
ptaipale 10y ago
I don't see why Britain would want French or Germans to apply for visas. Hardly a negotiation point. Regarding point 3, to allow Scotland to join, EU would have to renegotiate the 1998 SGP treaty among all member countries, because Scottish budget deficit is worse than what it has ever been in e.g. Greece. That'd be nowadays probably a harder thing than Brexit itself.
gakada 10y ago
5. Indefinitely hold up UK's new WTO schedule, apply huge tariffs to UK goods entering the EU, while it doesn't have MFN status.

volatilitish 10y ago

I disagree. Leave voters are already being able to say "I told you so". We haven't had a war yet, we're not in a recession, and the EU is forging ahead with its army, letting Turkey in, etc etc. I very much doubt the EU will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and our friends around Europe will be free again.

sevenless 10y ago
Nothing has changed yet. In what way are Leave voters able to say "I told you so"? I very much doubt the UK will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and Scotland will be free again :-)
- blibble 10y ago
  a crucial point that many have missed is that independence after a hard brexit would likely result in Scots no longer having the automatic right to work in England. in the previous referendum this wasn't an issue, as the UK and an independent Scotland would both be in the EU together, with the freedom of movement of workers. your average Scot values the ability to work in England much more highly than the ability to work in the EU, so this makes Scottish independence less likely, not more, which explains Sturgeon's recent behaviour.
  - notahacker 10y ago
    Expect it to be a major feature in any second independence referendum campaign. I suspect if Scotland ever seceded they'd fudge automatic rights to work in England and open borders (in return for border checks at Scottish airports and a customs union) in a similar manner as needs to be negotiated for Northern Ireland. Those negotiations aren't going to be fun...
  - hackbinary 10y ago
    The problem that England has with Scotland is all the land that the English aristocracy 'owns' in Scotland.
Symbiote 10y ago