5 ms·

Autopilot will get better and it will be used more, and more people will die. At least until full autonomy. Think about all the weird edge cases that are encoun

by deegles 10y ago

Autopilot will get better and it will be used more, and more people will die. At least until full autonomy. Think about all the weird edge cases that are encountered in distributed systems, and now attach a human life and a 5,000lb car to it. The question is if fewer people will die on a per-mile adjusted basis. Sure, Autopilot is safe 'when used correctly,' but I wouldn't trust someone to maintain 100% attention on driving with it enabled. Maybe for a few cumulative hours. Not for hundreds or maybe thousands of hours. If I'm paying attention and I prevent Autopilot from getting me into an accident, why have it on in the first place? It's supposed to protect me from inattention! (e.g. automatic braking) As it gets better at protecting people from inattention, people will be less attentive, and more will encounter the edge cases that the machine learning models will inevitably have. Don't get me wrong, I love SDCs and the massive impact they will have, I just believe that partial autonomy is unsafe because of the human factor.

peteretep 10y ago
Will more people die than would have with AutoPilot?
- manicdee 10y ago
  If you quintuple the number of Tesla kilometres per year but only triple its safety, you will still have more injuries and fatalities. For every Tesla that is now able to recognise a truck cutting across a highway and brakes in time to avoid a fatal collision you will have new bizarre scenarios like following behind a truck that dislodges overhead objects, which a human would have avoided but a Tesla's computer didn't see, leading to a human getting crushed by a bridge falling down. I would also expect a short learning curve for Teslas to acknowledge the emergency stop water curtain signs. But the short version is yes, SDC will result in more deaths even though they get relatively safer and safer. https://youtu.be/NoTMC-uxJoo https://youtu.be/NoTMC-uxJoo
- imtringued 10y ago
  Let me ask a different question. For every accident that happens with AutoPilot and a non AutoPilot car, would it have happened if every involved car had AutoPilot?
vvanders 10y ago
> If I'm paying attention and I prevent Autopilot from getting me into an accident, why have it on in the first place? Because it takes less mental effort to watch for the exception case rather than constantly adjusting speed/heading/etc. Also something that's rarely mentioned is that in it's current form AP's killer-feature is rush hour traffic. In those situations you're dealing with <20 MPH and tends to be the most mentally taxing. In my small sample set(~30k AP miles) I've found the mental load for driving long distances and rush hour traffic to be significantly less.
- etendue 10y ago
  > In my small sample set(~30k AP miles) I've found the mental load for driving long distances and rush hour traffic to be significantly less. Interesting---how did you measure this?
  - vvanders 10y ago
    Had about ~7k on the odo when we got the AP update, 37k now. Large majority of my miles are 300mi roundtrip weekly commute.
    - etendue 10y ago
      Oops, my question was ambiguous—I was actually wondering how you measured "mental load", as you put it.
      - vvanders 10y ago
        Ah, misunderstood :). I've been doing the same ~7hr drive + workday for 2 years. Both myself and my wife noticed I was a lot less wiped out after AP. We have the car ~3 months before AP so it was a pretty controlled change.
- henrikschroder 10y ago
  > Because it takes less mental effort to watch for the exception case rather than constantly adjusting speed/heading/etc. Yes, this! The argument that drivers are safer if they are forced to pay attention all the time is ridiculous, you can use that to argue against every feature on the car! Servo steering is bad, you don't feel the road properly! Automatic gearboxes are bad, you're not in tune with the engine! ABS brakes are bad, you should know how to brake so as not to lock the wheels! Traction control is bad, you should never drive on surfaces where you're not in 100% control of the car! Blind spot radars are bad, you should always look around you and make lane changes responsibly! Bla bla bla. The current Level 2 autonomous systems makes it easier to do the right thing when driving. Used correctly, they lessen the cognitive load, but you have to learn how they work, what they can and cannot do, just like you need to know what situations your traction control systems or anti-lock brakes can save you from. They're not magic, they're just one more helper system.
nardi 10y ago
> The question is if fewer people will die on a per-mile adjusted basis. Last I heard, Autopilot was MUCH safer per mile.
- URSpider94 10y ago
  Not the numbers I've seen. Estimates range from about the same as humans, if you compare raw miles driven, to considerably less safe if you just compare against highway miles, which is where Autopilot is used. There's also the issue that, with only one fatality, the error in estimating the rate is quite high.
grecy 10y ago
> If I'm paying attention and I prevent Autopilot from getting me into an accident, why have it on in the first place? The same reason you have cruise control - it doesn't do everything for you, but it helps reduce cognitive load in some basic areas, which reduces fatigue over the long haul.

by deegles 10y ago

peteretep 10y ago

Will more people die than would have with AutoPilot?

manicdee 10y ago
If you quintuple the number of Tesla kilometres per year but only triple its safety, you will still have more injuries and fatalities. For every Tesla that is now able to recognise a truck cutting across a highway and brakes in time to avoid a fatal collision you will have new bizarre scenarios like following behind a truck that dislodges overhead objects, which a human would have avoided but a Tesla's computer didn't see, leading to a human getting crushed by a bridge falling down. I would also expect a short learning curve for Teslas to acknowledge the emergency stop water curtain signs. But the short version is yes, SDC will result in more deaths even though they get relatively safer and safer. https://youtu.be/NoTMC-uxJoo https://youtu.be/NoTMC-uxJoo
imtringued 10y ago
Let me ask a different question. For every accident that happens with AutoPilot and a non AutoPilot car, would it have happened if every involved car had AutoPilot?

vvanders 10y ago

> If I'm paying attention and I prevent Autopilot from getting me into an accident, why have it on in the first place? Because it takes less mental effort to watch for the exception case rather than constantly adjusting speed/heading/etc. Also something that's rarely mentioned is that in it's current form AP's killer-feature is rush hour traffic. In those situations you're dealing with <20 MPH and tends to be the most mentally taxing. In my small sample set(~30k AP miles) I've found the mental load for driving long distances and rush hour traffic to be significantly less.

etendue 10y ago
> In my small sample set(~30k AP miles) I've found the mental load for driving long distances and rush hour traffic to be significantly less. Interesting---how did you measure this?
- vvanders 10y ago
  Had about ~7k on the odo when we got the AP update, 37k now. Large majority of my miles are 300mi roundtrip weekly commute.
  - etendue 10y ago
    Oops, my question was ambiguous—I was actually wondering how you measured "mental load", as you put it.
    - vvanders 10y ago
      Ah, misunderstood :). I've been doing the same ~7hr drive + workday for 2 years. Both myself and my wife noticed I was a lot less wiped out after AP. We have the car ~3 months before AP so it was a pretty controlled change.
henrikschroder 10y ago
> Because it takes less mental effort to watch for the exception case rather than constantly adjusting speed/heading/etc. Yes, this! The argument that drivers are safer if they are forced to pay attention all the time is ridiculous, you can use that to argue against every feature on the car! Servo steering is bad, you don't feel the road properly! Automatic gearboxes are bad, you're not in tune with the engine! ABS brakes are bad, you should know how to brake so as not to lock the wheels! Traction control is bad, you should never drive on surfaces where you're not in 100% control of the car! Blind spot radars are bad, you should always look around you and make lane changes responsibly! Bla bla bla. The current Level 2 autonomous systems makes it easier to do the right thing when driving. Used correctly, they lessen the cognitive load, but you have to learn how they work, what they can and cannot do, just like you need to know what situations your traction control systems or anti-lock brakes can save you from. They're not magic, they're just one more helper system.

nardi 10y ago

> The question is if fewer people will die on a per-mile adjusted basis. Last I heard, Autopilot was MUCH safer per mile.

URSpider94 10y ago
Not the numbers I've seen. Estimates range from about the same as humans, if you compare raw miles driven, to considerably less safe if you just compare against highway miles, which is where Autopilot is used. There's also the issue that, with only one fatality, the error in estimating the rate is quite high.

grecy 10y ago

> If I'm paying attention and I prevent Autopilot from getting me into an accident, why have it on in the first place? The same reason you have cruise control - it doesn't do everything for you, but it helps reduce cognitive load in some basic areas, which reduces fatigue over the long haul.