4 ms·

The only long-term solution I have seen is Debt for Equity swaps. It won't work everywhere, but it does help. Note the US Federal government owns so much land

by hga 10y ago

The only long-term solution I have seen is Debt for Equity swaps. It won't work everywhere, but it does help. Note the US Federal government owns so much land in the Western part of the country and Alaska that that alone might allow it to get its fiscal house in order, and could certainly help. I mean, isn't it everyone's dream to have title to a plot of Alaskan tundra ^_^? Obviously it would be very hard to make this work, and impossible for our current ruling class, but the raw numbers just might work out. Otherwise you're right, it simply won't be paid back. But who knows how long we'll be viewed as a "least worst" place to park your liquid assets?

carsongross 10y ago
Government debt, while large, is not the core issue. Private debt is the issue. Steve Keen has been hammering this for years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQWs8EteqI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQWs8EteqI http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/ http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
- api 10y ago
  IMHO the worst form of private debt in our present economy is personal private debt. We are in a severely demand constrained economy, and personal private debt is really what's weighing the economy down and soaking up consumer demand. Also unlike corporations individuals cannot do debt/equity swaps or raise money by issuing shares in themselves, so personal private debt is harder to renegotiate or reorganize into a more manageable form. Corporate private debt is maybe the next worst, but as I said corporations have many more tools for dealing with it especially if they are otherwise healthy. There's a huge market out there for equity in healthy and especially growing companies. I have heard the interesting view that government debt and private debt are not even the same thing. When you think about it: the government prints its own money (or authorizes the entity that does, e.g. the Fed). How can you truly owe a debt in your own sovereign (fiat) currency? How is debt still a meaningful concept there? It seems to me (and IANAE) that government debt is more like equity in the nation. Owning a bond is like owning stock in the USA, but with the caveat that you are forced to resell this stock at its maturity date. Maybe something closer to a weird kind of convertible note.
  - carsongross 10y ago
    How is debt still a meaningful concept there? I still think debt is a meaningful concept there, in that that that debt is going to be relied on by the holders to provide an income in the future that they are thinking of in terms of a reasonable increase in the general money supply and inflation. It's not a black and white situation as with personal debt and I'm certainly more sympathetic than I used to be to the idea that excess sovereign debt isn't a serious issue (as long as the sovereign controls the underlying currency, looking at you Greece). On the other hand, I think the same analysis tells us that the sovereign should just print the money and distribute it (via, say, a citizens dividend or Keen's modern debt jubilee) rather than rely on the banks debt-creation mechanism.
euroclydon 10y ago
If the government sold all it's land to pay back it's debt, we'd be no better off than we were back in the Robber Barron days. It's not secured debt, so it would be stupid for any entity to give up hard assets. This would almost be equivocal with ceasing to be a sovereign.
- hga 10y ago
  If the government doesn't pay back/at least keep current on that debt, it's likely to fall, as in, the whole system of government, as happened the last time it screwed up so badly ("Not worth a Continental." although there were of course other factors). Secured by hard assets or not, a very great deal depends on people continuing to have a degree of faith in it as a whole, and it's hard to see how repudiating the debt would be survivable. And it would still be just as sovereign as it is now, or are you claiming it's not sovereign over the Eastern part of the country??? Or course, there are many other gambits it could and likely will try, like the already mooted one of seizing people's tax system entangled retirement accounts.
  - euroclydon 10y ago
    A U.S. Government that staved off bankruptcy by selling such vast, historic and valuable assets, would be on even worse footing that one that maintained the assets and defaulted on the debt. Hell, while they're at it, why not sell off the exclusive economic zones, permanently sell off bandwidth rather than lease, turn the military into a contracted mercenary force and sell naming rights to the Washington Monument. There are worse things than defaulting on debt.
bradleyjg 10y ago
Even taking the silly assumption, for the sake of this argument, that the federal government's finance is just like a giant household, its debt figures are fine. It has a debt-to-income ratio of 14.3, the highest possible credit rating, and assets that far exceed debt. Lenders would be tripping over themselves to lend to to such a household, and lo and behold lenders are tripping over themselves to lend to the USG. This dour anti-debt Puritanism is dumb enough when it comes to individuals, but makes no sense at all when it comes to government.
- carsongross 10y ago
  It isn't "dumb puritanism" when applied at the individual level. The problem is private debt, particular private debt that doesn't self-liquidate (consumption). See Steve Keen (certainly no puritan on debt) on the distinction between public debt and private debt and its effects on the economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A
  - hga 10y ago
    How much of our current Federal debt is just funding current consumption? How much of the budget can truly be scored as investments? Perhaps not even the bulk of student higher education loans....
    - carsongross 10y ago
      I agree entirely, but the sovereign issuing debt in it's a currency it controls (and let us assume, push come shove, the Treasury will side with the government over the Federal Reserve) is different than an individual taking on debt for consumption. Keen is very good on this and has convinced me, despite it going against my inherent anti-debt biases.
  - bradleyjg 10y ago
    A didactic video with a talking head and no use of the video medium whatsoever is extremely annoying. What about that video couldn't be done equally well or better in writing?
pjc50 10y ago
Again, I don't see why people are worrying so much about the US government here. It's one of those situations where you don't have to outrun the bear, just the other guys. It's the countries that can't devalue and print a little to ease their situations (Euro countries other than Germany) that are in trouble. Then there's the countries which are dependent on fossil fuel exports for their budget (Saudi and Russia, but also Brazil and Venezuela among others). Then there's China's economic structure, which has far more pretending in it. The US is fine unless another Republican Congress decides to blow it up with the debt ceiling.

by hga 10y ago

carsongross 10y ago

Government debt, while large, is not the core issue. Private debt is the issue. Steve Keen has been hammering this for years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQWs8EteqI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQWs8EteqI http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/ http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

api 10y ago
IMHO the worst form of private debt in our present economy is personal private debt. We are in a severely demand constrained economy, and personal private debt is really what's weighing the economy down and soaking up consumer demand. Also unlike corporations individuals cannot do debt/equity swaps or raise money by issuing shares in themselves, so personal private debt is harder to renegotiate or reorganize into a more manageable form. Corporate private debt is maybe the next worst, but as I said corporations have many more tools for dealing with it especially if they are otherwise healthy. There's a huge market out there for equity in healthy and especially growing companies. I have heard the interesting view that government debt and private debt are not even the same thing. When you think about it: the government prints its own money (or authorizes the entity that does, e.g. the Fed). How can you truly owe a debt in your own sovereign (fiat) currency? How is debt still a meaningful concept there? It seems to me (and IANAE) that government debt is more like equity in the nation. Owning a bond is like owning stock in the USA, but with the caveat that you are forced to resell this stock at its maturity date. Maybe something closer to a weird kind of convertible note.
- carsongross 10y ago
  How is debt still a meaningful concept there? I still think debt is a meaningful concept there, in that that that debt is going to be relied on by the holders to provide an income in the future that they are thinking of in terms of a reasonable increase in the general money supply and inflation. It's not a black and white situation as with personal debt and I'm certainly more sympathetic than I used to be to the idea that excess sovereign debt isn't a serious issue (as long as the sovereign controls the underlying currency, looking at you Greece). On the other hand, I think the same analysis tells us that the sovereign should just print the money and distribute it (via, say, a citizens dividend or Keen's modern debt jubilee) rather than rely on the banks debt-creation mechanism.

euroclydon 10y ago

If the government sold all it's land to pay back it's debt, we'd be no better off than we were back in the Robber Barron days. It's not secured debt, so it would be stupid for any entity to give up hard assets. This would almost be equivocal with ceasing to be a sovereign.

hga 10y ago
If the government doesn't pay back/at least keep current on that debt, it's likely to fall, as in, the whole system of government, as happened the last time it screwed up so badly ("Not worth a Continental." although there were of course other factors). Secured by hard assets or not, a very great deal depends on people continuing to have a degree of faith in it as a whole, and it's hard to see how repudiating the debt would be survivable. And it would still be just as sovereign as it is now, or are you claiming it's not sovereign over the Eastern part of the country??? Or course, there are many other gambits it could and likely will try, like the already mooted one of seizing people's tax system entangled retirement accounts.
- euroclydon 10y ago
  A U.S. Government that staved off bankruptcy by selling such vast, historic and valuable assets, would be on even worse footing that one that maintained the assets and defaulted on the debt. Hell, while they're at it, why not sell off the exclusive economic zones, permanently sell off bandwidth rather than lease, turn the military into a contracted mercenary force and sell naming rights to the Washington Monument. There are worse things than defaulting on debt.

bradleyjg 10y ago

Even taking the silly assumption, for the sake of this argument, that the federal government's finance is just like a giant household, its debt figures are fine. It has a debt-to-income ratio of 14.3, the highest possible credit rating, and assets that far exceed debt. Lenders would be tripping over themselves to lend to to such a household, and lo and behold lenders are tripping over themselves to lend to the USG. This dour anti-debt Puritanism is dumb enough when it comes to individuals, but makes no sense at all when it comes to government.

carsongross 10y ago
It isn't "dumb puritanism" when applied at the individual level. The problem is private debt, particular private debt that doesn't self-liquidate (consumption). See Steve Keen (certainly no puritan on debt) on the distinction between public debt and private debt and its effects on the economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A
- hga 10y ago
  How much of our current Federal debt is just funding current consumption? How much of the budget can truly be scored as investments? Perhaps not even the bulk of student higher education loans....
  - carsongross 10y ago
    I agree entirely, but the sovereign issuing debt in it's a currency it controls (and let us assume, push come shove, the Treasury will side with the government over the Federal Reserve) is different than an individual taking on debt for consumption. Keen is very good on this and has convinced me, despite it going against my inherent anti-debt biases.
- bradleyjg 10y ago
  A didactic video with a talking head and no use of the video medium whatsoever is extremely annoying. What about that video couldn't be done equally well or better in writing?

pjc50 10y ago

Again, I don't see why people are worrying so much about the US government here. It's one of those situations where you don't have to outrun the bear, just the other guys. It's the countries that can't devalue and print a little to ease their situations (Euro countries other than Germany) that are in trouble. Then there's the countries which are dependent on fossil fuel exports for their budget (Saudi and Russia, but also Brazil and Venezuela among others). Then there's China's economic structure, which has far more pretending in it. The US is fine unless another Republican Congress decides to blow it up with the debt ceiling.