4 ms·

probably worthwhile the world powers reminding themselves that policies of nuclear deterrence rely entirely on rational agents

cmdkeen 10y ago
The DPRK can be thought of as rational in that they follow reason and logic, it may not be the same reason and logic that other world leaders and states follow but that doesn't mean that it isn't there and isn't possible for Western strategists to try and factor that in.
- your_ai_manager 10y ago
  I would agree that normally governments make geopolitical decisions in a rational ways. But due to governments being emergent systems you have rare events in which individual incentives can line up to make irrational decisions happen. Look at what happened with the Brexit vote for example.
lordnacho 10y ago
What's not rational about it? The chances of an externally forced regime change in DPRK just went down by a lot, which is exactly what the regime wanted. Sure they will say some aggressive things from time to time, but it's entirely rational for them to remind everyone that they have these nukes and are willing to use them.
misja111 10y ago
It can be rational to appear irrational. It is a tactic that is widely used by extortionists; as an extortionist you want to impose as much fear as possible on your opponent that you will execute your threat. And if you're unpredictable that threat looks more scary so your victim might be more willing to pay.
- GunboatDiplomat 10y ago
  See Richard Nixon's Madman Theory. >I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.
easuter 10y ago
As much as you may think the DPRK leadership is irrational, I'm sure they understand the concept of MAD very well. If they do try to launch a nuclear attack (or even a conventional one), they will forfeit the cushy setup they've created for themselves.

cmdkeen 10y ago

The DPRK can be thought of as rational in that they follow reason and logic, it may not be the same reason and logic that other world leaders and states follow but that doesn't mean that it isn't there and isn't possible for Western strategists to try and factor that in.

your_ai_manager 10y ago
I would agree that normally governments make geopolitical decisions in a rational ways. But due to governments being emergent systems you have rare events in which individual incentives can line up to make irrational decisions happen. Look at what happened with the Brexit vote for example.

lordnacho 10y ago

What's not rational about it? The chances of an externally forced regime change in DPRK just went down by a lot, which is exactly what the regime wanted. Sure they will say some aggressive things from time to time, but it's entirely rational for them to remind everyone that they have these nukes and are willing to use them.

misja111 10y ago

It can be rational to appear irrational. It is a tactic that is widely used by extortionists; as an extortionist you want to impose as much fear as possible on your opponent that you will execute your threat. And if you're unpredictable that threat looks more scary so your victim might be more willing to pay.

GunboatDiplomat 10y ago
See Richard Nixon's Madman Theory. >I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.

easuter 10y ago

As much as you may think the DPRK leadership is irrational, I'm sure they understand the concept of MAD very well. If they do try to launch a nuclear attack (or even a conventional one), they will forfeit the cushy setup they've created for themselves.